020
FXUS63 KSGF 070536
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1236 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and isolated thunderstorm chances (35-80%) return to
  the area at times through Friday.

- Mild and dry conditions possible for the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

Synoptic assessment shows an Omega blocking pattern as we are
currently between two cutoff low pressure systems over the Ohio
Valley and the Four Corners Region. As a result of an upper
level ridging pattern over the area, midlevel heights rising
have allowed temperatures to range in the low to mid 70s for
much of the area so far this afternoon.

Despite the building ridge, the western cutoff low will continue
to push towards the region today. Satellite imagery has shown
increasing cloud cover from the southwest, and radar currently
shows rain showers and a few embedded thunderstorms extending
from southeast KS into northeast OK/western AR. The rain is
beginning to push into our far southwest counties (as of 2 PM),
and will continue pushing northeast into the rest of the CWA
this afternoon/evening and into the overnight hours as energy
wraps around the system. Some embedded thunder will be possible
(20-30%), mainly west of Hwy 65, however no severe weather is
expected, and coverage will remain limited.

As we move into the overnight hours, lows will range in the 50s
as cloud cover continues to increase.

With the low continuing to push towards the area, chances will
increase (60-80%) for more widespread precipitation on
Wednesday, which will likely be the wettest day in the forecast
period. The increased cloud cover and precipitation will keep
afternoon highs in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

Models show the cutoff low continuing to push into the region
before opening back up Thursday evening and pushing
east/southeast on Friday. Additional showers/thunderstorms will
be possible through the remainder of the week as energy
continues to wrap around the system, however coverage will
remain limited, with many locations seeing periods of dry
weather.

The low will push out of the area by Friday evening/night,
with a messy synoptic pattern setting up over the weekend.
Despite the messiness, conditions should remain mild and dry,
with temperatures climbing into the upper 70s by Sunday. A stray
shower or two may still be possible, however much of the area
should stay dry.

The aforementioned upper low that pushed southeast of the region
will begin to push back north towards the beginning of next
week, bringing 20-30% precipitation chances again on Monday
over the eastern Ozarks. We`ll have to keep watching how the
long term pattern evolves as we head closer towards next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025

An upper level system moving across the plains overnight will
bring scattered showers and isolated storms to the region.
With increasing low level moisture reduced visibilities around
5 to 6 miles, with brief further reductions within any heavy
showers or thunderstorms are expected by sunrise and through the
day. Ceilings will also see impacts with VFR ceilings (>5kft)
initially falling to MVFR (1500-3000ft) around sunrise to IFR ceilings
around 700 to 900 feet by the afternoon as rain potential and
coverage increases.

Surface winds will be light at 5 to 10 knots out of the east-
southeast except where a storm may move over a terminal.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melto
LONG TERM...Melto
AVIATION...Hatch