410
FXUS63 KSGF 102013
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
313 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances (40-70%) through
  the afternoon southeast of Springfield. Low chances (5%) for a
  few isolated strong thunderstorms to produce damaging wind
  gusts of 50-60 mph, in addition to localized heavy rainfall.

- Hot and humid conditions persist for portions of the area this
  afternoon with highs in the lower 90s, with heat index values
  approaching 100 degrees.

- Additional shower and thunderstorm chances (40-70%) this
  evening into tonight, especially northwest of Interstate 44. A
  few damaging wind gusts are possible along with localized
  flooding across southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri.

- Daily rain chances (30-50%) persist through early next week
  with temperatures returning to near normal for mid August.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper
air analysis continues to show a upper level trough across the
northern Plains with the ridge losing its grip on the area. The
atmosphere was becoming increasingly unstable and high in
moisture with a PW value measured at 1.63in this morning on the
sounding. The synoptic front was analyzed from around Wichita to
Kansas City with a myriad of outflow boundaries across southern
Missouri. An area of showers and storms was ongoing southeast
of Springfield in an area of uncapped instability and lift from
a previous boundary. Localized heavy rainfall rates and
lightning are occuring with this activity. Further west, the
airmass was still likely capped however satellite shows strong
heating and a tight instability gradient exists across
southeast Kansas into southwest Missouri. Lastly, outside of
rainfall, temps have reached the lower 90s with dewpoints in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

This Afternoon through Tonight: A complex and messy convective
evolution is expected with strong moisture convergence likely
to break the cap within the next few hours across southeast
Kansas into western Missouri along those boundaries. This is
supported well by the 12z HREF data. While instability and
moisture is high, wind shear is low which should keep the severe
threat to a marginal level with wet microbursts the main
concern (wind gusts to 60mph). Storm motions will be slow
therefore heavy rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour could
occur which could cause localized flooding. The stream levels
across the area are lower than they have been and antecedent
conditions are dry therefore we have only gone with a Flood
Watch for Bourbon County Kansas at this time. Its uncertain how
far east and south storms move tonight (especially after 9pm).
Most guidance takes storms to the I-44 corridor and as far east
as Highway 65 but not much else south and east of there. Precip
chances will continue to be refined through the evening. Storm
total rainfall amounts vary however the 12z HREF data supports
pockets of 1-3 inches of rainfall through tonight along and
northwest of I-44. Some areas may see little if any rainfall
depending on how widespread the storm coverage is. There could
be isolated instances where a storm sits over a location and
produces 4-5 inches of rainfall however confidence in this
scenario is low and extremely difficult to pinpoint where it may
occur, if at all.

Storms could continue to develop overnight in southeast Kansas,
closer to the front and low level jet. Additionally an MCS is
expected to move through southern Kansas tonight and could move
into the area by early Monday morning. This MCS should be on a
weakening trend given the loss of instability and the potential
for our area to be worked over by this evenings storms. We don`t
have alot of confidence in that MCS therefore additional updates
are likely tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Short term guidance suggests that some dry time will occur in
between any lingering morning activity and afternoon scattered
redevelopment. The MCS could leave behind an MCV or outflow
boundary that kicks off afternoon storms. Otherwise it will
likely remain hot and humid with highs around 90.

Tuesday through Friday: Ensemble data continues to suggest that
shortwaves will likely continue to move through the area which
will keep pops in the 20-50% range through Thursday. There is
then a signal that upper level ridging develops towards the end
of the week. Temps should remain closer to average next week
given precip chances with increasing temps by the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Rather pessimistic TAF forecast today with scattered showers
and storms this afternoon, especially east of JLN. Could see
some more widespread activity this evening and overnight,
especially north of BBG and areas along and north of I-44. Have
included some tempo groups and then prob 30 groups overnight.
Winds will be variable today with periods of west to southwest
winds. Any thunderstorm that moves over a site could produce
gusty downburst winds. Ceilings and vis should remain VFR
outside of any storms.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch through Monday morning for KSZ073.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield