652
FXUS63 KSGF 051051
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
551 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Normal summertime conditions expected for holiday weekend with
  highs in the upper 80s to near 90 and Heat Index values
  between 90 and 100.

- Isolated shower and thunderstorm chances (20-40%) across the
  area this afternoon and evening.

- More widespread shower and thunderstorm chances (50-70%) on
  Sunday afternoon and evening. Localized heavy rainfall may
  accompany this activity.

- Additional rain chances (20-50%) Monday through Friday of
  next week. Highest chances in the afternoon and evenings.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Today-Tonight: A bit of breakdown in the upper-level ridge today
as an upper level trough translate through the Northern Plains.
This will provide some forcing over the area this afternoon and
evening, supporting isolated showers and thunderstorm chances
(20-40%). Coverage is not expected to be widespread, with the
highest chances focused along and north of Interstate 44. Highs
reach into the upper 80s to near 90, with heat index values in
the mid 90s. A handful of CAMs suggest rain chances linger into
tonight, which would be further south and east of Interstate 44.
Confidence is lower in this potential, and will need to monitor
trends through the day to increase PoPs as needed. Lows fall
into the lower 70s overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Sunday: The upper-level trough continues to slide east into the
Upper Mississippi Valley Sunday, with an associated surface
front dropping into the region. This will be the focus for
higher and widespread shower and thunderstorm chances (50-70%)
on Sunday afternoon and evening. High moisture content in the
column (PWATS up to 1.8 inch) will support efficient rainfall
rates and localized heavy rainfall amounts. Additionally, the
slow moving nature of any thunderstorms may support localized
flooding. However, widespread flooding is not expected at this
time. Lower rain chances (10-30%) linger through Sunday night.

Monday-Friday: A zonal flow pattern sets up into next week,
supporting daily scattered shower and thunderstorm chances
(20-50%). Daily rain chances would be highest in the afternoon
and evening. It is worth noting there is still some uncertainty
on the exact timing and location of mid-level energy
translating through the flow. Thus, expect changes as details
become more clear through the week. Daily highs in the mid to
upper 80s (max heat index values of 90-100) and lows in the mid
60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 550 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

VFR flight conditions through this morning and early afternoon.
Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances by the late afternoon
into the evening, with PROB30 groups highlighting this
potential. Brief reductions in visibilities in ceilings can be
expected within any of shower or thunderstorm. South-southwest
winds at 5 to 10 knots through the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Perez