488
FXUS63 KSGF 091054
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
454 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds of 20-30 mph today.

- Much colder conditions early today into early Tuesday. Highs
  in the 30s and 40s and lows in the 20s. Wind chills dipping
  into the single digits and teens tonight into Monday morning.

- Increasing confidence in elevated fire weather conditions on
  Tuesday, with dry and gusty conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 111 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

A cold front moved through the region last night with cold air
advection ongoing this morning. Satellite imagery showed low
stratus moving into the region, in advance of a secondary
shortwave and is expected to overspread the Ozarks today.
A tight surface pressure gradient today, between the departing
low and the approaching arctic surface high, will allow for
gusty winds, from 20 to 30 mph to occur through the day.

The combinations of cold air advection, gusty winds and cloudy
skies will make today feel rather blustery and late fall to
early winter like. Wind chills this afternoon will be in the
20s and in the single digits to teens for tonight. Moisture with
this system looks meager at best, though as the system move
through the area today, if enough lift can be realized, isolated
sprinkles or light flurries may occur into this morning. No
accumulating rain or snow is expected.

Sunday night into Monday, Cold air advection will continue
overnight tonight into Monday bringing the coldest temperatures
so far this season to the Ozarks. As temperatures fall into the
upper teens to lower 20s and winds continue wind chills by
Monday morning will be in the single digits. The cold air mass
move over the area during the day Monday as the center of the
surface high pressure slides south across the plains, just to
the west of the Ozarks. This will help keep cold temperatures
in place with highs from the upper 30s to low 40s. Monday night
will be cold once again with lows back in the 20s. The coldest
air will be in the east where some teens will be possible in the
valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 111 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Tuesday though Friday will see a warming trend, gusty winds and
fire weather concerns. The upper trough will shift off to the
east Tuesday and be replaced by dry, northwesterly flow as an
upper level ridge builds across the western CONUS. Fairly good
low level warm advection, thanks to southwesterly surface flow
is expected as high pressure departs and an upper level short
wave approaches the Ozarks. Despite the change, a dry air mass
will remain in place.

Highs should rebound into the mid 50s to low 60s Tuesday and
reach the upper 60s to lower 70s by Friday as the upper level
ridge makes its way east into the plains. Despite the
southwesterly surface flow, the air moving into the region will
come from the desert southwest Tuesday and as a result will be
rather dry with afternoon RH values it the 30s. Gusty southwest
winds with the low afternoon RH values will bring some elevated
to locally significant fire weather potential to the area
Tuesday afternoon. Continued southwesterly flow into Friday will
finally see a bit more moisture with dewpoints in the lower to
middle 50s. The week looks dry as a result of the slow moisture
return to the region.

Heading into next weekend, a strong upper level trough digs
into the four corners region of the southwest by Saturday. This
will allow for a more southerly flow into the region and good
enough moisture return to bring the potential for showers and
isolated storms to the region in to next Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 449 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Cold and gusty surface winds will impact the region through
today. Winds will gust from 25 to 35 mph at times from
the northwest. Low MVFR stratus was also moving over the region
as an upper level shortwave moves across the plains. As the
upper level trough moves through the region clouds will begin
to clear this afternoon into this evening brining VFR
conditions.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch