038
FXUS63 KSGF 130830
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
330 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heavy rainfall will be the main threat overnight with
  nighttime flash flooding a concern for southern Missouri.
  Never drive down flooded roadways and remember to turn around,
  don`t drown.

- Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the morning
  and early afternoon hours. Rain chances diminish this evening.

- Active summertime pattern continues next week with daily
  afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Rain showers will linger over the area for today as a shortwave
pushes east. Both SPC and WPC have backed off on the severe and
flooding potential for today. This is likely due to the lack of
lift available over the area. The CWA is now only in a general
thunder outlook and a Marginal risk (1/4) for flooding today.
This means that any rain that occurs today may still lead to
nuisance flooding or flash flooding, but that it will likely be
sub-severe. Though, we could see a rumble of thunder or two if
the showers can become strong enough.

So far, most of southern MO has seen at least a trace of rain
with the highest rainfall totals occurring over Texas and
Shannon counties where they saw around 2-3 inches Saturday
afternoon. An additional 0.5-1.0" of rain can be expected today
across the area.

The upper level low will still hangout over us on Monday
allowing for afternoon thunderstorms to occur. Right now, there
is a 30-50% chance for rain mostly south of I-44.

As for high temperatures, today and tomorrow will be partly
cloudy with highs in the low to mid 80s. Lows will still be warm
in the upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

The upper-level low finally moves out of the area by Tuesday and
zonal flow returns. Though, shortwaves will move through the
area bringing daily storm chances favoring afternoon convection
as instability builds.

NBM QPF is generally around a quarter inch daily though high
precipital water and weak flow will need to be monitored for
the potential for flooding.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Showers and thunderstorms are moving through southern MO
tonight. Most of this activity will remain sub-severe, though
heavy rainfall is occurring. This has led to reduced
visibilities and MVFR/IFR ceilings. Southerly winds may become gusty
in and around these thunderstorms. Expect intermittent
thunderstorms to occur through most of the period with activity
diminishing by Sunday evening and VFR ceilings returning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Soria