452
FXUS63 KSGF 090500
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1200 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slightly cooler temperatures and mostly sunny skies are
  expected through Thursday with temperatures around seasonable
  normals.

- Above average temperatures in the 80s are then likely (>75%
  chance) to return to the region late this week into the
  weekend. Mostly dry weather is also expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 141 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Upper level ridging and surface high pressure were in control of
the regions weather. Easterly surface winds were helping to keep
dry air in place over the Ozarks, which was see with the
limited cloud cover on satellite. This will lead to highs in
the low to mid 70s this afternoon, which is near/slightly above
average for this time of year.

Clearer skies and generally light winds to remain overnight,
lows cool into the low 50s for the majority of the area, and
the mid to upper 40s over the eastern Ozarks. Some patchy fog
may develop in the river valleys in the eastern Ozarks where
temperatures cool into the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 141 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Conditions will change little through Thursday night from what
we we see today. By Friday morning, midlevel heights will begin
to rise as an upper level ridge builds back up over the Plains
and slowly pushes east through the weekend. This will allow for
temperatures to climb back to above seasonable averages.
Ensemble temperatures spreads are rather narrow through early
next week, indicating good model agreement. Current output
shows widespread highs in the 80s by Saturday through at least
midweek next week (5-10 degrees above normal).

With the persistent ridging pattern into next week, mostly dry
weather is expected, for the most part. Friday morning may see a
limited chance for isolated showers as the nose of a low level
jet and isentropic upglide bringing a low chance (10-25%) of
showers/thunderstorms primarily along/north of Highway 54. For
the beginning of next week, an upper level trough will approach
the region from the west, bringing additional limited
shower/thunderstorm chances. Chances for next week still have
ample uncertainties (i.e. timing, frontal position, etc.). As a
result rain chances were kept on the lower end for now (10-30%)
until we get a better grasp on this system.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the entirety of
the TAF period. Southeasterly surface winds will gradually shift
out of the south by Thursday night.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Melto