617
FXUS63 KSGF 150540
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1240 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures will occur through the remainder of
  the week into the weekend. Daily highs in the 80s, with near
  record high maximum and high minimum temperatures possible across
  portions of the area Today through Friday.

- Increasing confidence in unsettled weather Thursday night
  through the weekend, and into early next week. This includes
  the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms in addition
  to localized heavy rainfall and flooding. Uncertainty remains
  in the exact details.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 209 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Quiet weather tonight into Thursday morning, but strong to
severe thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon into
Thursday night over far south-central MO. A cold front will push
southeast through the area Thursday, encountering strong
instability over the far southeastern CWA. There will be a cap
in place, but that will be weakening with time. Exact frontal
timing and timing of the weakening of the cap are still in quest
and will be key players into the potential for convection and
how severe it may be.

If storms can initiate and maintain in the afternoon and early
evening, SBCAPE values of 3,000-3,500 J/kg and deep layer shear
of 50-60 kts would be favorable for large hail (potentially up
to or greater than the size of tennis balls), damaging winds,
and perhaps a tornado or two. The tornado threat is low given
limited surface wind backing.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 209 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

The cold front will shift back north late Thursday night into
Friday, leading to a threat for severe storms during the day
Friday. Uncertainty in this threat exists due to potential for
morning precip to reduce instability and unknowns in how far
north the warm front will lift. Greatest confidence at this
point is in seeing significant destabilization with strong deep
layer shear and convection initiating on the warm front as it
lifts through and on a dry line just west of the CWA. REFS
probability of >3,000 J/kg of SBCAPE is 70-100% at 18Z Friday
while probability of >50 kts deep layer shear of generally
60-100%. Hail (possibly to the size of baseballs) is the
greatest overall threat, with damaging winds being secondary.
Tornados will be possible given the potential for interaction of
the warm front, but most of the warm sector will not have
particularly good shear profiles for tornadoes. See the new SPC
Day 3 outlook that includes hatching.

Saturday looks dry for now as the front is south of the area,
but an unsettled pattern brings thunderstorms back into the
pictures Sunday through Tuesday. Right now SPC has severe risk
areas west of the CWA each of these days, but AI/ML guidance
suggests potential for future expansion into the area. Flooding
may also be possible given repeated rounds of convection. Still
uncertain on important details, so stay tuned for updates.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Southeast to southerly winds will occur overnight and could see
some light gusts at times. Low level wind shear will also be
possible tonight into Thursday morning. A front will move
through the area Thursday morning with winds becoming more
westerly and gusty at times.

A strong cap should limit precipitation chances along the front
at the TAF sites. Some showers and storms will be possible
along the front Thursday afternoon and evening across portions
of south central MO if the cap can weaken enough, but if this
activity can develop it is expected to remain east of the TAF
sites. Mid clouds will increase with the front Thursday morning
then become more high level clouds through the day.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Tue May 14 2025

Record High Temperatures:

May 14:
KSGF: 88/2018
KJLN: 92/1947

May 15:
KSGF: 87/1957
KJLN: 89/1911
KUNO: 87/1957

May 16:
KJLN: 89/2001
KUNO: 88/2012

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 14:
KSGF: 66/1911

May 15:
KSGF: 67/1941

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Wise
CLIMATE...Wise