376
FXUS63 KSGF 210743
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
243 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near average temperatures and dry for the rest of the week,
  with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.

- Below average temperatures late in the weekend into early
  next week.

- 20 to 40% rain chances will occur at times early next week,
  but there are still questions on the exact track of the
  system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 240 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Satellite imagery showed mostly clear skies across the area,
with the exception of some scattered low to mid level clouds
over central MO. Radar also depicted an isolated shower pushing
southwest into our northern counties during the early morning
hours, however it continued to quickly diminish (as of 230am),
with the rest of the overnight period remaining dry, and
temperatures ranging in the upper 60s to low 70s. Overnight
temperatures are expected to drop a few more degrees, with lows
ranging in the low/mid 60s (eastern Ozarks) into the upper 60s
(elsewhere).

The upper level high remains situated over the Four Corners
region, with our CWA continuing to experience northerly flow.
Mid-level water vapor imagery captures a much drier airmass
that`s infiltrated the region behind the weak cold front that
passed south through the area yesterday morning. Near-normal
temperatures will occur both today and Friday, with highs in
the mid to upper 80s into the low 90s. This, combined with the
lower dewpoints ushered in by the northerly flow, will lead to
much lower relative humidity values in the 30-50% range.

For tonight, expect overnight lows to range in the low to mid
60s across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 240 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Saturday will yield another day of near-normal temperatures in
the upper 80s/low 90s. An upper low pushing through
Manitoba/Ontario, Canada will bring an upper level trough
out of the northern Plains, with several shortwaves progged to
pivot down into the area by the end of the weekend and through
next week. As a result, a potent surface cold front is forecast
to surge south through the region Saturday into Sunday, ushering
much cooler, below-normal temperatures into the area for next
week. There`s a 10-20% chance for showers and thunderstorms,
primarily north of I-44 with this frontal passage, however with
the drier airmass in place, chances will be limited.

Current forecast highs range in the low to upper 80s on
Sunday, promptly followed by highs in the 70s through at least
midweek. There is a 7-11 degree spread between the 25th and 75th
percentiles, with the NBM deterministic hovering closer to the
25th. Regardless, even the 75th percentile (low 80s) is below
normal for this time of year, so confidence is high in a
cooldown.

Additional rain chances (20-40%) exist during the beginning and
middle of next week as the shortwaves push through, however questions
in the track of the system continue leading to lower confidence
in any specifics. We`ll continue to keep an eye on how things
progress over the next several days as we get closer to this
timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire TAF period.
Expect light and variable surface winds overnight, with
northeasterly winds between 5-10kts during the day.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melto
LONG TERM...Melto
AVIATION...Melto