223
FXUS66 KSEW 081130
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
330 AM PST Sat Nov 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier and warmer conditions will settle into
western Washington over the weekend as high pressure builds
overhead. A weak system will bring light rain to the region
early next week with more ridging favored towards midweek. A
stronger and wetter system is expected to move into the Pacific
Northwest towards the end of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Area radars look vastly different compared to the last 24 to 48
hours or so. Upper-level ridging is building over the PNW,
resulting in drier and more stable conditions for western
Washington this weekend. Temperatures this morning range between
the upper 30s to mid 40s with patchy fog observed across the
Chehalis River valley and the Kitsap Peninsula. Aforementioned
will gently progress across the region as its axis centers over
the Inland NW by Sunday. Large-scale subsidence will bring
milder conditions as highs top out in the upper 50s, to lower
60s. Overnight lows are to bottom out in the 40s.

A weak frontal system will approach the the region Sunday night
into Monday and increase precipitation chances. While much of
the lowlands will see light amounts less than a tenth or two,
the bulk of the moisture will fall over the northwestern Olympic
Peninsula and North Cascades, where amounts could reach half an
inch or more.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Conditions look to trend drier again for both Tuesday and
Wednesday. Ensembles are in agreement on the 500 mb pattern
favoring a setup for ridging along the West Coast, shifting
eastward over the Intermountain West during this time. Active
and wet weather is set to return towards the end of next week,
but the exact details remain uncertain.

McMillian

&&

.AVIATION...
Upper level ridge over Western Washington with the
ridge axis shifting east of the area this afternoon. Westerly
flow aloft becoming southwesterly this afternoon. Southwesterly
flow aloft continuing through Sunday. In the lower levels weak
offshore flow through tonight becoming light Sunday.

Satellite imagery shows fog along the I-5 corridor in the
Southwest Interior, between Olympia and Hoquiam, near the Hood
Canal, over the San Juans and Puget Sound. Just high clouds
over the remainder of the area. Fog coverage not increasing much
except over the Southwest Interior before sunrise. Fog layer
looks shallow with the Black hills sticking out of the fog. Low
level offshore flow increasing this morning will help dissipate
the fog by midday. High clouds at times through Sunday. Low
level offshore flow continuing overnight leading to less fog
coverage Sunday morning.

KSEA...Tough call on the fog chances for the terminal this
morning. As long as the easterly winds continue this should
keep the fog to the west from reaching the terminal. Roof
observation at 315 AM skies are crystal clear with no evidence
of any fog. This gives confidence that a Lake Washington stratus
scenario with the clouds drifting over the terminal later this
morning scenario is also not in the works. KOLM-KBLI gradient
down to -2.1 mb at 11Z/3 AM. Given all this will keep fog out of
the terminal this morning. Northeast to easterly winds into
Sunday morning will dry the air mass out reducing the fog
chances for Sunday morning as well. Northeast wind 4 to 8 knots
becoming easterly after 09z. Felton

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over the interior with lower pressure over
the coastal waters creating weak offshore flow through the
tonight. A splitting front reaches the coastal waters later Sunday
dissipating as it moves inland Sunday night. High pressure
building over the coastal waters Monday remaining in place
Tuesday. Next frontal system approaching the area Wednesday
night.

Small craft advisories remain up for the coastal waters this
morning for 10 foot seas. Seas subsiding this afternoon but
could rebuild to 10 feet later Sunday into Monday.

Increasing offshore flow creating small craft advisory
easterlies at the West Entrance to the Strait of Juan de Fuca
this afternoon through tonight and in the Central Strait
tonight. Felton
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Skokomish river dropped below flood stage early Saturday morning
and will continue to recede today. Next couple of weather
systems to reach the area not producing hydrologically
significant rainfall. The next chance for heavy rain is not
until the end of next week and no new flooding is expected for
the next seven days. Felton

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until noon PST today for Coastal Waters
     From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
     60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
     Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
     Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
     Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-Grays Harbor Bar.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM PST
     Sunday for West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De
     Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 1 AM PST Sunday
     for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

&&

$$