291
FXUS66 KSEW 020925
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
225 AM PDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A dry weekend is on tap as a troughing pattern begins
to take shape going into next week. More clouds will roll in
Sunday into midweek as this new pattern takes shape. A few showers
will be possible as well, with the best chance being on Wednesday
and Thursday. Temperatures will cool from Sunday through Thursday
before high pressure builds back in next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...It`s rather quiet across
western WA this morning. This morning`s marine push is beginning
to push stratus across the inland around the Olympics, and many
will be waking up to clouds in the morning that will burn off in
the afternoon. The southerly flow aloft will give the region one
more day of average/near average temperatures as the sun peaks out
this afternoon (highs in the 70s to low 90s in the interior, 60s
along the coasts, and lows in the 50s tonight). Smoke from the
Bear Gulch fire in the east Olympics will push some smoke aloft
(most will not make it down into the surface except near the fire
and a little mixing down in the interior/Cascades.

The pattern begins to shift on Sunday as the ridge to the east
over the Rockies/Canada begins to slide east. This will allow the
low positioned offshore of B.C. to finally move inland
Sunday/Monday. An ensuing shortwave trough with this low will
finally work inland to cover the region Sunday into Monday.
Surface high pressure will remain offshore (with lower pressure to
the east of the Cascades). The onshore pushes will bring quite a
bit of moisture/cloud coverage Sunday and Monday morning. Given
the inland gradient, it might be tricky getting even some partial
clearing going into the afternoons Sunday/Monday. It remains dry
these days, with temperatures quite a bit cooler (low to mid 70s
in the interior, coasts still keep 60s for highs). Winds will
remain rather light.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...Same said pattern early next
week will continue into midweek. The models show a shortwave
trough and frontal system move through Tuesday through Thursday,
though there are slight differences in placement of these
features. The increases moisture with this system will result in
the chance of showers over the region, with PoPs up to 40-50%.
Wednesday and Thursday appear to have the best chance regionwide
for showers. COnclusively, the Cascades and the northwest
Olympics/Pacific Coast look like they will receive the most QPF
with what this system has to offer (which isn`t a whole lot, but
the morning marine pushes will still bring plenty of moisture into
the region). Ensembles hint at another warm up and dry spell
returning at the end of the week next week.

HPR

&&

.AVIATION...A trough is offshore today with S/SW flow over western
WA. Near the surface, onshore flow prevails and low level stratus
clouds will cover most lowland locations this morning. MVFR to IFR
conditions expected. Low clouds will slowly lift and burn back
toward the coast by 18-21Z. Low clouds will push inland again
overnight into Sunday morning. 33

KSEA...Low level stratus clouds and MVFR conditions this morning
with a slow burnoff this afternoon. Winds SW 5-8kt. 33

&&

.MARINE...Onshore flow prevails through early next week with high
pressure offshore and lower pressure inland. Highest winds and
waves will be found through the Strait of Juan de Fuca during the
late afternoon and evening hours. Weak frontal system will clip
the area Tuesday through the end of the week. 33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Western Washington transitioning into a cooler
pattern over the weekend. Low level onshore flow increasing
Saturday. Deeper marine layer giving the area late night and
morning clouds with good RH recoveries each day through at least
Thursday. Weak upper level trough moving through Monday with a
weak front trying to hang together for the middle of next week.
Upper level ridge building the second week of August with the
possibility of another very warm and dry spell. Felton

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning for
     Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance
     U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Sunday
     for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East
     Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

&&

$$