451
FXUS66 KSEW 022254
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
254 PM PST Sun Nov 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Next system moving inland mainly to the south
Monday. The system will try and lift north into Western
Washington Monday night into Tuesday. Organized front arriving
Tuesday night into Wednesday but with the jet aimed into
Northern California and Southern Oregon this system will be
weakening as it moves into the state. A more consolidated system
moving into the area late in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...A weak ripple in
the flow is producing showers in the north this afternoon,
particularly over the Strait of Juan de Fuca and San Juans. The
air mass is slightly unstable with a 15% chance of
thunderstorms in the same region too. Otherwise, much of the
region is seeing a break in the action today. Expect lows in the
upper 30s to mid 40s overnight.

We`re under SW flow on Monday with moisture spreading up from
the south. Areas from around Everett north may not see much rain
at all. May see light snow at White Pass and Paradise on Mount
Rainier during the afternoon but snow levels will be rising
through the evening.

We`ll see a short break in the weather on Tuesday with upper
level ridging, then more wet and locally windy weather Tuesday
night as a stronger Pacific storm system moves in. The windiest
areas will be along the coast and western strait Tuesday night.
33

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...The weather pattern
remains active through the end of the week with additional
systems clipping the region. We`re in for more wet and locally
windy conditions through the period. Back-to-back periods of
moderate to heavy rain will force rises on the Skokomish River
in Mason County with flooding possible. Total rainfall over the
lowlands ranges from 1-2" in the interior to up to 4" along the
coast. Meanwhile, the coast and strait will see high
astronomical tides starting Wednesday (and possibly Thursday) with
minor coastal flooding possible. Moving on, the pattern looks
quieter over the weekend with high pressure building over the
Pac NW. 33

&&

.AVIATION...Westerly flow aloft today will become southwesterly
tonight and Monday as another upper trough approaches the
region. Mostly VFR this afternoon aside from isolated MVFR
cumulus streaming in under weak onshore flow. Mid to high level
clouds should fill in tonight limiting widespread fog/low
stratus but can`t rule out brief spells of patchy fog for
terminals such as KPWT, developing as early as this evening. VFR
in the forecast for Monday but rain looks to return in the
afternoon, leading to MVFR cigs and vis resettling and becoming
more widespread.

KSEA...VFR conditions this afternoon through Monday morning. Lowered
ceilings and vis look to return Monday afternoon as rainfall
resettles across the region. Surface winds south-southwest 5 to 10
kt, shifting more north-northeasterly after 00z.

McMillian

&&

.MARINE...Surface ridging over the coastal waters will shift inland this
evening with light offshore flow developing. A weak surface trough
moving northeastward off the Oregon coast will dissipate as it moves
onshore over Western Washington later on Monday evening. A broad and
deep area of low pressure will move into the offshore waters on
Tuesday evening. A vigorous frontal system associated with a sub 980
millibar surface low lifting northward toward Haida Gwaii is
expected to produce headlines for all waters Tuesday night through
Wednesday night. Gales are likely for the coastal waters as well as
the Strait of Juan de Fuca and adjacent waters during this period. A
series of additional fronts will follow into the end of the week
maintaining a very active weather pattern.

High seas will maintain over the coastal waters throughout the week
ahead. Seas 12 to 15 feet this evening will gradually subside below
10 feet briefly Monday night or early Tuesday before building back
to 15 to 20 feet Wednesday through the rest of the week.

McMillian

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Back-to-back wet Pacific storm system will keep the
rivers flowing off the Olympics and Cascades running high over
the latter half of the week. Flooding is possible on Skokomish
River in Mason County. Several rivers will be near action stage
with a few within (Snoqualmie, Skykomish, Snohomish). Most
rivers will crest on Friday and then recede over the weekend.
33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Grays
     Harbor Bar.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for West
     Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Monday for Coastal Waters
     From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
     60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
     Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
     Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
     Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

&&

$$