127
FXUS20 KWBC 102021
PMDSA

South America Forecast Discussion - International Desks
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
321 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

GFS data at ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nccf/com/gfs/prod/

Forecast Bulletin 10 February 2026 at 1930 UTC:

A plume of moisture associated with a low-level trough is expected
to advect deep moisture into the Guianas and the Amazon Delta
region over the next two days. By the end of the forecast period,
drier air will reach the region, decreasing precipitation.
Accumulations of 20-45mm are expected daily from today through
Thursday.

Over Ecuador and Colombia, daily showers are expected through
Thursday as moisture from the Pacific is advected into the region.
The low-level flow, however, remains relatively weak and mostly
parallel to the shore, which will likely limit high accumulations.
Moisture in the region, combined with diurnal heating and local
effects, will bring precipitation to the area. An increase in
rainfall is anticipated from Thursday through Friday over Ecuador
as a low-level trough develops, increasing low-level moisture
convergence. This enhancement will bring rainfall accumulation
totals of 20-45mm.

Heavy rainfall is anticipated today over Peru, particularly over
Selva Alta, where a shortwave mid-level trough and a low-level
trough will increase low-level moisture convergence. Further
support for convective activity is likely along the periphery of
the Bolivian High. These troughs will also bring rainfall over
portions of Bolivia. From Wednesday through Thursday, most of the
rainfall in Peru is expected over the Amazon region, where
low-level convergence and a mid-level trough will aid the
development of showers and thunderstorms. Accumulations are
expected to be around 30-60mm. High totals are anticipated from
Thursday through Friday over the Selva Alta region, with
upper-level divergence supporting deep convection.

In Brazil, low-level moisture convergence continues, although the
SACZ is anticipated to start losing its structure. This low-level
convergence will drive most of the precipitation today across the
region. Accumulations exceeding 50mm are expected over
southeastern and Central Brazil through Wednesday. From Wednesday
through Thursday, heavy rainfall and convective activity are
forecast over the Amazon region, driven by moisture advection,
low-level convergence, and shortwave troughs. By Friday, an
upper-level trough over eastern Brazil will increase the chances
for deep convection in the northeast, with totals anticipated
between 40-80mm.

The development of a frontal boundary over Argentina will bring
precipitation throughout the forecast period. Upper-level support,
including a jet stream and mid-level diffluence, will encourage
deep convection. Starting today, rainfall and thunderstorms are
expected to affect La Pampa and the Buenos Aires region. A
moderate risk for severe weather exists from tonight into
Wednesday morning. As the frontal boundary progresses, heavy
precipitation is anticipated in portions of Uruguay and Argentina
from Wednesday through Thursday, with totals ranging from 40-80mm.
This boundary will reach southern Brazil by Friday, increasing
instability and moisture, with a moderate risk of severe weather
and totals of 25-50mm.




Rivera-Torres...(WPC)


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