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AGUS76 KRSA 191259
HMDRSA

Hydrometeorological Discussion
National Weather Service / California Nevada RFC / Sacramento CA
600 AM PDT Sat Oct 19 2024

...WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES FOR SW OR AND NW CA LATE SUN INTO MON...
...NEXT CHANCE AT PRECIP FOR NORTHERN AREAS ON THU INTO FRI...

.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (SAT AM - FRI AM)...

An upr low continues to spin just downstream of the region near the
4-Corners with the majority of the precip this morning falling
across CO and NM. High pressure resides pretty much along the west
coast...and with this overall pattern...the flow remains out of the
north and northeast with a relatively dry airmass in place. Through
the rest of the weekend...look for disturbances to move across BC
and the Pacific Northwest with the one late Sunday into Monday
expected to drag a cold front across southwest OR and northwest CA
with some mainly light precip. Amounts will be best over the Smith
River basin from 0.25- to 0.75-inch...trailing off quickly for
points south and inland as the boundary weakens and falls apart.

Heights will once again pump up across the western US as an area of
low pressure moves over the eastern Pacific. There are some
questions as to the timing of this offshore feature toward the west
coast for the latter half of the week. The 19/00Z GEM and GFS are a
bit more progressive in the upr low becoming an open wave with light
precip arriving along the north coast on Thursday...while the 19/00Z
EC is on the slow side of things...delaying precip until Friday.
Latest NBM and WPC QPF lean toward the faster solutions at this
time...and for now with enough questions...followed this idea with
the Day 6 QPF.


QPF graphics are available at www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/qpf.php



Kozlowski

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