686
AGUS76 KRSA 142109
HMDRSA

Hydrometeorological Discussion
National Weather Service / California Nevada RFC / Sacramento CA
110 PM PST Fri Nov 14 2025

...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP THRU SAT DUE TO A LARGE LOW
CARRYING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, T-STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SRN CA TODAY/TOMORROW...
...WET PATTERN CONTINUES FOR NEXT WEEK AS ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS MOVE IN
FROM THE NW...

.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (FRI PM - THU AM)...

Tropical moisture continues to surge into srn CA and up the SJ
valley into the Sierra this afternoon. Radar and satellite show
precip from coastal soCal northward to about I-80. Hot spots over
the past 6 hours have been over the hills of Santa Barbara/Ventura
counties with observations showing about 1-2.50+" and 0.50-1"+ over
the central Sierra. The main focus of the afternoon update has been
for the next 24 to 48 hours particularly over srn CA. Increased QPF
in the current period (to 00z) over the Transverse a bit given
observations. The moisture plume will shift a bit further south
later today before expanding back northward along the coast tonight
and tomorrow morning when more moderate to locally heavy precip will
return where things have moved out this afternoon. Time frame for
heaviest precip generally 12z Sat-00z Sun. Uncertainty remains on
how far north the moisture will regress and how much precip will
accompany it. The GFS and now the NAM continue to be a good deal
wetter than the ECMWF over San Diego County tonight through tomorrow
morning, but the ECMWF has trended a bit wetter as has WPC/NBM.

The low will rotate offshore the rest of today making its way south
off the coast. Models are sending the low eastward later tomorrow
towards the coast and moving it inland from sw to ne in the late
afternoon and overnight. The GFS/ECMWF still show a little embedded
feature forming off the southern edge of the low`s core early Sunday
with a band of precip, but the intensity of that has reduced in the
12z runs. Looking at the individual members of the ECMWF AIFS, I
still see that feature in several members with at least a few
sending that heavier precip into San Diego Sunday morning, so it is
worth keeping an eye on. For now, the forecast is on the drier side
at about 0.25" for Sunday morning. Overall, QPF has changed on the
order of 0.10-0.50" up or down for most areas. The exception being
the models trending down a bit over the Transverse mountains
overnight tonight by nearly 1". Blended in the latest NBM/WPC and
the 12z GFS/ECMWF. QPF through 12z Sun:  1-4" central/southern
Sierra, 3-6" Transverse, 2-4" coastal srn CA, 0.10-0.75" Bay Area,
0.50-1.50" central coast/SJ valley, and generally 0.10" or less for
far nrn CA.

The system will start to lift out of the area later Sunday with the
next trough right behind it approaching from the northwest.
Disagreement remains on the fate of that next system and the one
after that so still a good amount of uncertainty in the QPF for the
extended. Bottom line, expect a wet pattern to continue into next
week with at least a pair of additional systems.

QPF graphics are available at www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/qpf.php



AS

$$