784
AGUS76 KRSA 271439
HMDRSA

Hydrometeorological Discussion
National Weather Service / California Nevada RFC / Sacramento CA
640 AM PST Wed Nov 27 2024

...LINGERING SHOWERS OVER SRN CA THIS MORNING AS THE MOISTURE
PLUME EXITS...
...DRY CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE REGION SITS
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...

.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (SHORT TERM: WED AM - SAT AM)...

Synoptically, the upper trough that moved through yesterday is
exiting the region to the east while high pressure builds over the
eastern Pacific. The moisture plume has shifted to the south now
across southern CA with some still lingering north of Point
Conception. Morning 12z sounding out of San Diego reporting 1.08" of
PW and just under 1" at Vandenburg. Radar is picking up some light
shower activity with multiple gages along coastal soCal reporting
accumulations. This is likely partly isolated showers and partly
drizzle from coastal fog. Precip from the plume has mostly wound
down with only about 0.10-0.25" observed overnight. The moisture
will continue to shift to the south and pull offshore the rest of
today potentially producing some additional light shower activity
over coastal srn CA this morning, but not expecting more than a
tenth of an inch. Conditions will dry out across the rest of the
region as high pressure sets up offshore. Models show an upper low
approaching central/srn CA from the west at the end of the week, but
all det and majority of ensembles agree on this system weakening
before reaching land thus preventing any additional precipitation.
QPF is all zeros beyond this afternoon for the near term.


.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (LONG TERM: SAT AM - TUE AM)...

Dry conditions for the long term window as ridging persists and
directs any unsettled weather towards British Columbia and the
Pacific Northwest. Temperatures will range from near to slightly
above normal with the largest departures across the south. GFS and
EC continue to hint at minimal mountainous shower activity over the
weekend as a weak upper trough and low dissipates offshore of
central and southern California. Morning forecasts generally
followed the NBM which kept all accumulations across the forecast
area at zero through the extended window. Any shower activity that
happens to form over southern California this weekend will likely
result in a trace or less.


QPF graphics are available at www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/qpf.php



AS/CH

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