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AGUS76 KRSA 241522
HMDRSA

Hydrometeorological Discussion
National Weather Service / California Nevada RFC / Sacramento CA
725 AM PST Sun Nov 24 2024

...LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CA LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY...
...MOISTURE PLUME AFFECTS CENTRAL CA LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...
...TURNING QUIETER FOR THANKSGIVING...

.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (SUN AM - SAT AM)...

A few showers across the area this morning under west-southwest
onshore flow...as an upr low spins off the coast of the Pacific
Northwest and high pressure resides to the southwest of the tip of
Baja California. Look for precip activity to begin to increase
across the northern CA coast this afternoon and evening before
spreading inland as the upr low begins to slowly make its way to the
southeast before crossing the coast near the CA/OR border as an open
wave early Tuesday. Limiting factor in terms of precip production
will be the lack of any significant moisture as PW values look to
remain near 0.50-inch along the north coast.

At the same time...a moisture plume from a source northeast of
Hawaii along 30N will advect toward the central CA coast and arrive
early Monday morning with reasonable inland transport toward the
southern Sierra. PW peaks near 1.50-inches near the axis of this
feature with nearly 1.25-inches reaching the central CA coast and
1.00-inch inland to the southern Sierra. This will bring an increase
in precip across much of central CA from the Santa Cruz Mountains
south over the Santa Lucia Mountains to near Point Conception and
then inland for the central/southern San Joaquin Valley and adjacent
Sierra (mainly Tuolumne River basin down to the Kern River basin.
This moisture plume will persist into Tuesday before weakening and
sinking south. In general...still looking for 1.00- to 3.00-inches
along coastal areas (greatest Big Sur coast)...and 1.00- to almost
2.00-inches for the central/southern San Joaquin Valley...and for
the southern Sierra approx 3.00- to 6.00-inches with some localize
amounts reaching 7.00-inches. Freezing levels for the duration of
the event will hover from 7000-feet to 10500-feet.

Conditions turn quieter for Wednesday into Thanksgiving with maybe a
few showers late Thanksgiving into Friday as the models are
struggling with a disturbance tracking east along 30N and possibly
reaching the southern CA coast late Friday. For now...included some
rather light precip over the higher terrain of central CA and then
coastal southern CA.


QPF graphics are available at www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/qpf.php



Kozlowski

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