287
FNUS71 KRNK 041744
FWSRNK

Spot Forecast for Summit Lake Piles...USFS
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1244 PM EST Tue Feb 4 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1335 EST on February 04.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Gusty northwest winds will continue today through the remainder of the
evening in the wake of the cold front that passed through the area
earlier this morning. Rain chances will remain minimal through the
rest of today. Mixing heights look to peak at around 2000-2500ft, and
transport winds will generally remain out of the northwest at 15-20
mph. This will lead to dispersions in the low 30s to low 40s at the
burn site for the rest of today. Outside of the low dispersions and
gusty winds, there are currently no fire weather concerns, especially
with the previous wetting rains the area saw at the end of the last week.
Rain and freezing rain chances increase starting overnight tonight, and
continuing through Wednesday and Wednesday night.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny.
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 50.
Min humidity........60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 7 to 10 mph with gusts to
                    around 21 mph.
Mixing height.......1600 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northwest 14 to 22 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (15200 knot-ft).
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................22 to 41.

TIME (EST)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........74  61  48  42  35
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10  10  10  10  10
Temp............41  40  39  37  35
RH..............64  60  61  61  64
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..10  9   9   8   7
20 FT wind gust.21  20  18  18  17
Mix hgt (kft)...1.4 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.3
Mixng wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Mixng wind spd..22  21  18  16  14
LVORI...........4   4   4   3   4
ADI.............35  41  38  31  22
VRate mph-ft/1K.31  32  30  24  17

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy becoming
                    mostly cloudy. Slight chance of
                    light freezing rain overnight.
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent increasing to 20 percent overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 26.
Max humidity........79 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......200 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........North 3 to 12 mph decreasing to around 2 mph
                    late in the evening, then shifting to the
                    northeast overnight shifting to the southeast 3
                    to 6 mph after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (300 knot-ft).
LVORI...............6.
ADI.................1 to 5.

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........29  20  20  20  20  33  74  91  94  95  95  94
Weather cov.....                                SCH     SCH SCH
Weather type....                                FZR     FZR FZR
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10  0   0   0   0   0   10  10  20  10  20  20
Temp............33  32  31  30  29  28  28  28  29  30  31  31
RH..............65  65  66  67  68  69  67  64  62  60  59  63
20 FT wind dir..NW  N   N   N   NE  E   SE  SE  S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..6   5   4   3   2   2   2   2   2   3   4   4
20 FT wind gust.14  11  8   6   6   5   5   5   5   5   6   6
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3
Mixng wind dir..NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   NE  E   SE  SE
Mixng wind spd..12  9   7   5   3   2   2   2   2   3   5   6
LVORI...........6   6   6   8   8   7   7   6   5   4   4   4
ADI.............5   4   3   2   2   1   1   1   1   2   3   4
VRate mph-ft/1K.7   6   4   2   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   2

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy with a Chance of rain or light
                    freezing rain through much of the day
 on Wednesday.
CWR (0.01 in).......30 percent early in
                    the morning, increasing to 70 percent in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 39.
Min humidity........59 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 5 mph early in the morning
                    becoming light, then becoming southeast 5 to 7
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......700 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southeast 8 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2000 knot-ft).
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................6 to 13.

TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........92  87  88  84  91  92  91  93  91  89  87  89
Weather cov.....CHC SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....FZR FZR FZR RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............30  20  30  30  40  50  50  60  60  60  70  70
Temp............31  31  32  32  33  34  34  34  34  33  33  33
RH..............67  76  79  80  80  80  80  82  83  84  85  88
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..5   4   4   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   6   7
20 FT wind gust.6   6   7   7   8   10  10  10  10  11  12  13
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4
Mixng wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Mixng wind spd..8   9   9   9   9   9   10  10  10  12  12  12
LVORI...........5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
ADI.............6   10  10  10  10  10  11  11  12  12  13  13
VRate mph-ft/1K.2   3   3   5   6   7   7   7   7   6   5   5

$$
Forecaster...Bunker
Requested by...Colleen Urffer
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2502108.1/RNK
.DELDT 02/04/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL colleen.urffer@usda.gov