Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
919
FNUS71 KRNK 041149
FWSRNK
Spot Forecast for Fore Mountain BL...USFS
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
749 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on April 04.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Winds will predominantly remain out of the southwest, and are expected
to build through the afternoon hours to around 5-10 mph. Gusts up to
20-25 mph at the 20ft level can be expected during peak mixing hours
in the afternoon. These winds combined with mixing levels reaching
just over 5000 ft will lead to good dispersions by the afternoon
hours. RH values during peak mixing are expected to drop
to around 50%, but will initially start much higher this morning
in the 80-90% range, which may lead to a tough initiation of
fuels. Rain chances at the burn site look to remain elevated
today, with showers currently approaching the area. The rainfall
from these showers/thunderstorms may wet the ground clutter enough
that burning may be difficult. If burning does occur today, the
southwest winds may lead to efficient burning uphill along Fore
Mountain where the burn location is as these winds should push the
fire uphill, but again given the current showers in the area and
possible rain later this afternoon, burning may be difficult to
initiate today at this location. By the afternoon hours, more
aggressive thunderstorms are expected to develop, which may lead
to erratic winds in and around the burn location if these storms
are within the vicinity.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent increasing to 20 percent in the
afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 78.
Min humidity........51 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms late in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......5100 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southwest 8 to 15 mph increasing to west 22 to
28 mph in the late morning and early afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3600 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (87700 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................9 early in the morning increasing to 72 in the
afternoon.
TIME (EDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........91 79 60 54 56
Weather cov..... S CHC S CHC S CHC
Weather type....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10 10 20 20 20
Temp............64 66 70 75 77
RH..............84 78 67 55 51
20 ft wind......W 6 W 6 W 6 W 7 W 6
20 ft wind gust.10 13 13 13 12
Mix hgt (ft)....500 2100 3800 4600 5100
Mixing wind......SW 8 W 22 W 26 W 18 SW 14
LVORI...........4 3 1 1 1
ADI.............9 44 72 54 42
VRate mph-ft/1K.4 47 101 84 70
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
thunderstorms in the evening. Slight chance of
thunderstorms overnight.
CWR (0.01 in).......20 percent increasing to 30 percent in the late
evening and overnight, then decreasing to 20
percent after 3 am.
Min temperature.....Around 60.
Max humidity........90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
becoming light, then becoming east around 5 mph
late in the evening. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........South 6 to 9 mph shifting to the east 5 to 7
mph early in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (23000 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (1900 knot-ft) late in the
night.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................3 to 21.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........56 61 59 62 61 58 67 80 87 87 87 90
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............20 20 20 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 20 20
Temp............74 73 70 69 67 65 64 63 62 62 62 62
RH..............57 59 67 70 74 79 82 83 87 85 86 86
20 FT wind dir..SW S S NE E E E E E E E SE
20 FT wind spd..6 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
20 FT wind gust.10 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8
Mix hgt (kft)...3.0 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6
Mixng wind dir..SW S SE SE E E E E E E E E
Mixng wind spd..9 6 5 5 6 7 7 6 5 5 5 5
LVORI...........2 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 5 6 6
ADI.............21 4 3 3 4 5 4 4 3 3 3 3
VRate mph-ft/1K.26 5 2 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming
mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Slight chance of
showers early in the afternoon. Slight chance
of thunderstorms early in the afternoon.
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 81.
Min humidity........41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 6 mph shifting to the
south 6 to 10 mph with gusts to around 18 mph
in the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early
in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4300 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southeast 3 to 5 mph shifting to the south 6 to
13 mph late in the morning, then increasing to
southwest 21 to 29 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2100 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (98600 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to excellent (90200
knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................3 early in the morning increasing to 111 in the
afternoon.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........88 87 83 80 76 58 49 45 40 37 34 31
Weather cov..... SCH SCH SCH
Weather type.... RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH
CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 20 20 10 10
Temp............61 61 61 62 65 67 71 74 77 79 80 79
RH..............88 89 90 89 82 75 66 56 48 44 41 41
20 FT wind dir..SE SE SE S S S S S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..5 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 8 9 9 10
20 FT wind gust.10 10 10 11 12 13 14 16 18 18 18 18
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.8 2.2 3.2 4.3 4.2 4.0 3.9
Mixng wind dir..E SE SE SE S S S SW SW SW W W
Mixng wind spd..5 3 3 3 3 6 13 21 26 29 29 26
LVORI...........6 6 6 6 4 4 3 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............3 4 4 4 5 10 33 68 102 111 109 98
VRate mph-ft/1K.3 2 3 3 4 10 27 66 113 121 118 104
$$
Forecaster...Bunker
Requested by...Adam Christie
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2508842.0/RNK
.DELDT 04/04/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL adam.christie@usda.gov