026
FNUS71 KRNK 261241
FWSRNK

Spot Forecast for Philpott Lake...USACE
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
741 AM EST Tue Nov 26 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 EST on November 26.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Low pressure tracking through the Great Lakes will push a cold
front and showers through the area this morning. This will shift
the wind to the northwest by 9AM. Winds will gust 20 to 30 mph
through 1PM, then gust drop to 15 to 20 mph through 7PM.

Rainfall amounts will remain light at less than 0.10 inches.

Another surface low pressure system developing in the lower
Mississippi Valley will bring rain to the area for Wednesday
night through Thursday night. Rain amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inches.

Much colder air with dry high pressure is expected for the
weekend.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......30 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 61.
Min humidity........39 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 7 mph with gusts to around 16
                    mph shifting to the northwest 6 to 9 mph with
                    gusts to around 22 mph in the late morning and
                    afternoon, then becoming light late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......3000 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........West 6 to 13 mph increasing to northwest 21 to
                    26 mph late in the morning, then decreasing to
                    16 to 17 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (64500 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................7 increasing to 63.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........80  59  56  24  22  40  48  47  30  12  20
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10  30  20  10   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............57  57  58  59  60  61  60  60  59  57  54
RH..............73  70  69  61  54  47  42  40  39  40  43
20 FT wind dir..W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..6   7   8   9   9   8   8   8   6   6   4
20 FT wind gust.14  16  22  17  16  16  14  14  13  11  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.9 1.1 2.3 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.5 0.9
Mixng wind dir..W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Mixng wind spd..6   13  21  26  25  21  16  16  17  17  16
LVORI...........4   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   2
ADI.............7   17  43  61  57  63  51  50  52  50  17
Haines index....4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
VRate mph-ft/1K.5   14  48  74  70  58  48  47  47  43  15

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 56.
Min humidity........43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......2100 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........North 2 to 3 mph shifting to the southeast 5 to
                    6 mph late in the morning, then shifting to the
                    south 5 to 7 mph late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1000 knot-ft).
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................2 to 15.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........38  47  52  58  63  68  74  79  80  80  81  81
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............33  32  36  41  44  48  50  52  54  54  53  51
RH..............81  80  69  60  54  48  45  43  43  44  47  53
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  W   S   SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..1   1   1   1   2   2   3   4   4   4   3   3
20 FT wind gust.2   2   2   4   4   6   7   8   8   8   7   6
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.8 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.2
Mixng wind dir..NW  NW  N   E   SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S
Mixng wind spd..2   2   3   5   6   7   7   7   7   7   6   5
LVORI...........5   5   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.............3   2   2   3   6   12  15  14  13  11  11  7
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4
VRate mph-ft/1K.1   1   1   3   5   9   12  15  13  11  9   5

$$
Forecaster...Silverman
Requested by...Brian Stewart
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2427352.0/RNK
.DELDT 11/26/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL brian.w.stewart@usace.army.mil