428
FNUS71 KRNK 081810
FWSRNK

Spot Forecast for Thunder Croft...USFS
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
110 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1400 EST on November 08.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Expect scattered clouds to gradually dissipate after sunset. NW
winds have begun mixing more and will be gusty to around 20 mph
before diminishing this evening. A few gusts or two will be
possible as well overnight from the NW. Saturday will be dry with
winds becoming only slightly gusty and winds more from the east.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 8 mph with gusts to
                    around 20 mph.
Mixing height.......3400 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northwest 15 to 19 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (11800 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (52900 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................15 early in the morning increasing to 61 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EST)      2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........15  11  7   19
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0
Temp............70  69  67  64
RH..............47  42  40  43
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..8   8   8   8
20 FT wind gust.16  16  16  16
Mix hgt (kft)...3.4 2.8 2.2 0.9
Mixng wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW
Mixng wind spd..17  19  16  15
LVORI...........1   1   1   2
ADI.............61  53  42  15
Haines index....4   4   4   4
VRate mph-ft/1K.61  48  35  14

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 41.
Max humidity........78 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 8 mph in the evening and
                    overnight becoming light.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northwest 5 to 14 mph decreasing to 2 to 3 mph
                    after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (600 knot-ft).
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................1 to 11.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........32     38     25     16     11     9
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............60     53     52     50     48     43
RH..............47     53     55     57     64     73
20 ft wind......NW 8   NW 6   NW 6   NW 6   NW 4   NW 3
20 ft wind gust.14     13     13     10     7      5
Mix hgt (ft)....600    400    400    400    300    300
Mixing wind......NW 14  NW 13  NW 12  NW 8   NW 6   NW 3
LVORI...........2      2      2      3      3      3
ADI.............9      8      8      4      2      2
Haines index....5      5      5      5      5      5
VRate mph-ft/1K.8      4      4      4      2      1

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 60.
Min humidity........43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........North 2 to 5 mph shifting to the east 7 to 9
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (400 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (15000 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................2 to 22.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........10     11     23     24     35     35
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............42     43     52     57     59     56
RH..............74     78     56     47     43     46
20 ft wind......N 2    NE 2   E 3    E 4    E 4    E 4
20 ft wind gust.5      6      10     8      8      10
Mix hgt (ft)....200    400    1700   2100   2100   1900
Mixing wind......N 2    NE 5   E 9    E 8    E 7    E 8
LVORI...........3      4      2      2      2      2
ADI.............2      5      21     21     19     19
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
VRate mph-ft/1K.0      2      16     16     15     15

$$

Forecaster...Hanes
Requested by...Alex Orange
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2425977.5/RNK
.DELDT 11/08/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL vavic@firenet.gov