Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
650 FXUS61 KRNK 251858 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 258 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Aviation forecast has been updated. Increasing confidence in significant severe potential for Tuesday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Significant severe weather potential for Tuesday...other chances for showers and storms Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Significant severe weather potential for Tuesday...other chances for showers and storms Sunday and Monday. Stratus clouds have finally begun to lift and scatter out- at least west of the Blue Ridge, while to the east most ceilings remained at about a thousand feet or less. A surface trough bisected these two areas, with easterly winds bringing moisture off the ocean into the Piedmont. Aloft, much drier air was moving in as seen on satellite imagery. Afternoon cumulus had replaced the stratus in the mountains, so some sites were not seeing as much sun as others. Could see a few showers this afternoon and early evening, and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm along the surface trough. Cumulus clouds dissipate later tonight, but stratus and fog creep back in after midnight. Also overnight, a digging short wave will cause the upper flow to become more NNE as opposed to ENE, so any energy moving down from the Great Lakes will cross the Blue Ridge. This will trigger showers and thunderstorms Sunday, again on and around the Blue Ridge. CAPE may reach a 1000 J/kg or better, especially along the southern Blue Ridge, so a strong storm or two will be possible, with damaging winds the main concern. Heavy rain is expected with these summertime storms, and up to an inch or more can be expected in the stronger storms. Ironically one thing that will limit severity is the somewhat lower overall moisture, with PWATs ranging from just over an inch to about an inch and a third. Monday looks even more anemic moisture-wise, so this should be a partly sunny day for most with no rain. Monday night surface flow will develop from the south, bringing increasing dew points to the region. A warm front will lift across the region overnight into early Tuesday morning, and this strong WAA will bring widespread rain with embedded storms, a few which may be strong. Later on Tuesday, a cold front moves through from north to south, and this, along with a developing lee trough ahead of it, would be the trigger for scattered severe thunderstorms with wet microburst potential. This will depend heavily on how fast we can recover from the morning convection, and if we get breaks in cloud cover to recoup instability. Deep layer shear looks to peak around 40 kts, and current timing of the boundaries and diving short wave energy/jet streak is around peak heating. We are outlooked for both a 15% chance of severe weather from SPC on Day 4 (Tuesday), as well as a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall from WPC that day. UCAR`s medium range convective model continues to highlight Tuesday for a severe weather threat, consist of damaging winds and heavy rain possibly leading to flash flooding. Convection chances linger into Wednesday along the front, which may stall in the vicinity of the NC/VA border. If so this area could see a few strong storms. Cyclonic flow aloft will continue to threaten showers and storms north of it, but without the same forcing as on Tuesday. After that, we should see a break from daily rain chances on Wednesday, with some isolated chances Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Stratus clouds have finally begun to lift and scatter out- at least west of the Blue Ridge, while to the east most ceilings remained at about a thousand feet or less. A surface trough bisected these two areas, with easterly winds bringing moisture off the ocean into the Piedmont. Aloft, much drier air was moving in as seen on satellite imagery. Afternoon cumulus had replaced the stratus in the mountains, so some sites were not seeing as much sun as others. Could see a few showers this afternoon and early evening, and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm along the surface trough. Cumulus clouds dissipate later tonight, but stratus and fog creep back in after midnight, with LIFR to IFR possible at all TAF sites, but most likely everywhere but ROA, which could see closer to MVFR or just brief LIFR. Tomorrow, scattered showers and storms should develop over the southern Blue Ridge. Chances for impacts at terminals are possible at BCB, ROA, LWB, and LYH, but not high enough to include in TAFs. Winds will be light and mainly NW west of the Blue Ridge, and SW to the east. Confidence in the above forecast is moderate. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Widespread, heavy and potentially severe thunderstorms are expected Tuesday as a warm front and then a cold front cross the area. Also a chance for Wednesday, depending on how far south the front reaches. Valley fog/low stratus will also be possible each morning. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SH AVIATION...SH