916
FXUS61 KRNK 111630
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1230 PM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure overtaking the region today will lead to sunny
skies, breezy, and warm conditions across the area. The dry and
breezy conditions will lead to an increased fire weather threat
this afternoon, but this fire threat should diminish throughout
the week as winds relax, and increasingly moist air pushes into
the area. Springlike temperatures and dry conditions are
expected through Friday with the next chance of rain coming
Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Tuesday...

Temperature trends were slightly adjusted this morning as cooler
temperatures overnight thanks to clear skies and calm winds have
put some locations behind their forecast so far this morning.
Overall, high temperatures are still generally expected to be
in the upper 60s to low 70s for many across the area today.


Previous Discussion:

Key Messages:

1) Clear, sunny, and warm conditions expected today.

2) Warm temperatures coupled with low relative humidity and
breezy conditions will result in increased fire danger across
the mountains.

Chilly temperatures this morning with a wide range in
temperatures between valleys and ridges. Higher ridgetops still
holding in the 40s, while valleys have decoupled and have fallen
into the mid/low 30s. Sunny and clear expected today with a
quick warm up resulting in a large diurnal temperature curve
with afternoon highs into the 60s and 70s.

Slightly increased winds during the afternoon as west flow
increases ahead of a dry front pushing south across the Ohio
Valley. Gusts nearing 20 MPH will be possible at the higher
elevations. Increased winds, along with the dry and warm
temperatures will result in increased fire danger for the
mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 210 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

 - Dry with above normal temperatures.

Dry high pressure will move across Florida while stretching north
over the Mid Atlantic states Wednesday then off the east coast
overnight. Once offshore, southerly flow will help bring warmer
temperatures and dew points into the area. Late Thursday afternoon
into the overnight hours, a shortwave trough will pass over the
area. This wave will bring an increase in clouds and maybe a spotty
shower/sprinkle. Heights increase aloft and southerly flow in the
low levels will keep the warm trend going into Friday.

Normal high temperatures this time of year range from the upper 40s
to lower 50s across the mountains and mid to upper 50s in the
foothills and piedmont. Through the period, high temperatures will
run 15F to 18F warmer than normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 220 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Warmer than normal trend continues into the weekend.

2) Heavy rain showers expected this weekend.

An occluded low over the Great Lakes will track north into Canada
Saturday. Meanwhile, ahead of a cold front, a shortwave will track
out of the Gulf and over the southern Appalachian mountains.
Scattered showers are possible Saturday afternoon ahead of this
shortwave. This wave will move over the area Saturday night,
bringing a round of heavy showers to the area into Sunday morning. A
cold front will move across the mountains in the morning, then over
the piedmont in the afternoon. A line of strong convection could
form along the front as it tracks over the piedmont in the
afternoon. At this time, this convective line will form around or
east of Route 29. Rainfall amounts of one and a half to two inches
(1.5 to 2.0) are possible this weekend. With the occluded low
tracking northward, there is a chance this heavy rain event could be
shifted into Sunday-Sunday night timeframe.

Warmer than normal temperatures expected until the cold front tracks
off the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR expected for the valid 24 hour TAF period. Clear skies and
dry conditions expected.

Light westerly winds this morning will increase by the
afternoon across the mountains. Gusts nearing 20 MPH possible at
times through 00Z/8PM. Winds are expected to relax after sunset,
and transition to southwesterly. Some LLWS looks to develop
during the 06 to 12 UTC timeframe at LWB and ROA as a dry cold
front pushes through the region. Winds look to remain light and
variable out of the southwest through the remainder of the TAFs,
with a slow transition to southerly around the 18 UTC timeframe.



.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

In general, our forecast area will remain VFR through Wednesday
with high pressure in control. Increasing clouds expected
Wednesday night into Thursday associated with a backdoor front
that may come into the area from the northeast. The front
may linger into Friday with potential for an MVFR cloud layer.
Another system will cross the area over the weekend, and
Saturday afternoon could have more widespread showers and a
slight chance of thunder.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 200 AM EDT Tuesday...

Warm spring-like temperatures are expected this week and little
or no rain is forecast until next weekend. This will provide
opportunities for burning operations...but pay special
attention to forecast minimum humidity and wind direction.

Today will feature increasing westerly winds with clear skies.
Humidity minimums in the 20 to 30 percent range. Wednesday will
be sunny and warmer with winds becoming southwesterly...the
humidity bottoming out in the 25 to 30 percent range.

Aside from the really low afternoon Rh, the wind speeds are
forecast under critical thresholds for any headlines. With potential
for Rh to fall under 25% a regional variance will most likely be required
for burns during the mid-late afternoons...through Wednesday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG/EB
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...BMG/EB
FIRE WEATHER...BMG/PM