132
FXUS61 KRNK 131810
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
210 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Warm and humid weather will likely continue through the end of
the work week and early portion of the weekend, with daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms. Significant cloud cover
will also keep temperatures near or below normal for this time
of the year across the region. A frontal boundary will push
through the region late Friday into Saturday, which will bring
in much drier air and lower PoP chances through the weekend and
into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms look to
   continue across the area leading to some excessive rainfall
   concerns for areas along and south of the VA/NC border.

A shortwave perturbation is expected to eject north and east out
of the eastern Gulf and through southern North Carolina on
Thursday. This will provide more forcing for ascent across North
Carolina throughout the morning and afternoon hours on Thursday.
With the best forcing for ascent confined to North Carolina on
Thursday, the best chances for excessive rainfall look to be for
areas along the VA/NC border and points south. While some
isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected for the rest of
the forecast area, widespread activity look to be confined to
the areas mentioned above. A weak frontal boundary does look to
reach the West Virginia/Virginia border late on Thursday, which
will start to advect drier air into the region. This dry air
advection is what will predominantly keep activity isolated in
nature for most north and west of the I-81 corridor. With PWATs
near or just above 2.0 inches still in place across the VA/NC
border and points south, any storms that do linger or find a
pocket of instability may produce excessive amounts of rainfall
in a short period of time, and could cause localized flash
flooding.

With increased low and mid level moisture being advected into
the region from the northern Gulf continuing through Thursday,
the area will continue to maintain a rather thick blanket of
cloud cover, with temperatures remaining near to below normal
for most unless some breaks can develop towards the afternoon
hours.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for chances of showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon with the best odds along the southern Blue Ridge.

2) Conditions will remain warm and humid through the remainder of
this week.

A weak frontal boundary should drift southward towards North
Carolina during Thursday night and Friday, while high pressure
passes to the north. A small amount of wedging could occur due to a
light northeast flow on Friday, which would reduce the chance of
thunder around the Lynchburg region by Friday afternoon. However,
areas outside of this weak wedge should obtain enough instability
and lift to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms. The
considerably humid air mass could promote heavy rainfall in any of
the stronger convection that may cause localized flooding.

By Saturday, high pressure should weaken and head off the New
England coast. The frontal boundary across North Carolina could
buckle northward during Saturday afternoon and promote scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the entire region. Of course, the
southern Blue Ridge appears to have the most favorable odds for
convection. Moisture may begin to diminish on Saturday night as
another area of high pressure forms across the Ohio River Valley and
pushes the frontal boundary towards the Southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 120 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is moderate for drier weather on Sunday, but daily
chances of showers and thunderstorm should return afterward.

2) Warm and humid conditions could persist through the middle of
next week.

With high pressure across the Appalachian Mountains on Sunday, it
appears the latter half of the weekend should be the driest.
However, the air mass should remain rather humid going into the new
week. As high pressure weakens on Monday, daily chances of showers
and thunderstorms will return. The odds of more widespread
convection should increase during Tuesday and Wednesday as a frontal
boundary heads southeastward across the Great Lakes and into the
Ohio River Valley. Heavy rainfall from any of the stronger storms
may result in localized flooding concerns. Warm and humid conditions
could persist through the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR to MVFR conditions are currently being observed across the
area this afternoon, with some clearing clearing and lifting of
restrictions expected through the end of the evening today.
While some restrictions are expected to lift, scattered showers
and thunderstorms currently moving through the area may lead to
brief periods of MVFR to IFR restrictions through this evening
before any shower and thunderstorm activity diminishes. During
the overnight to early morning hours, MVFR to LIFR restrictions
look to develop for most mountain TAF locations to include BCB,
LWB, and BLF. TAF sites east of these locations look to remain
VFR to MVFR through the overnight and early morning hours. By
the end of the TAF period on Thursday afternoon, the three
mountain TAF sites aforementioned above should slowly start to
become VFR, but may linger under MVFR restrictions through at
least 18 UTC.

Light southwest winds at around 5 knots or less look to
transition to northwest winds across the area late Thursday as a
frontal boundary pushes through the area.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

A front approaches late this week keeping daily threat of
storms around and potential sub-VFR conditions through Saturday.
The front ushers in much drier air into the region starting
Friday, which should start to lead to more widespread and longer
lasting VFR conditions through the weekend.

Morning fog and stratus may cause sub-VFR conditions through
the period as well, otherwise VFR outside of this and storms.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EB
NEAR TERM...EB
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BMG/EB