082
FXUS61 KRNK 281722
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
122 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WHEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THIS AIRMASS IN
PLACE, AND VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN, THE AREA CAN
EXPECT DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD AIRMASS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING GIVEN THE SEVERAL DAYS OF ALREADY ACCUMULATED
RAINFALL, AND ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORM
DOWNBURSTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT TUESDAY WILL BRING IN
A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS AND LOWER POP CHANCES BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW/...
AS OF 100 PM EST SATURDAY...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITH
AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

CHANCES FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ON SUNDAY AS A THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AND
HUMID ENVIRONMENT. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING
FOR ASCENT ON SUNDAY, WHICH MEANS THAT THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE TERRAIN AND OUTFLOW INDUCED ONCE
DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES ENOUGH TO LIFT PARCELS TO THEIR LFC.
AGAIN, WITH NOT MUCH FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OUTSIDE OF A
30-40 KNOT WEAK JET AT THE 250MB LEVEL IN EASTERN VIRGINIA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY MEANDER AND FLOW ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND FROM PREVIOUS STORMS DOWNBURSTS. INITIAL
INSTABILITY VALUES LOOK TO BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS THIS
WEEK, WITH HREF ENSEMBLE MEAN SBCAPE FORECAST IN THE 1500-2000
J/KG RANGE. DCAPE VALUES LOOK TO BE ON PAR IF NOT SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, WITH FORECAST VALUES IN THE 700-900
J/KG RANGE. THIS WILL STILL LEAD TO A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD LEAD TO STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED HAIL.
THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST THREAT, WITH DOWNED TREES
AND POWER LINES CAUSING ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WHERE THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS DOWNBURSTS OCCUR.

OVERALL, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR, WITH HIGHS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE LOW 90S, AND
TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. EARLY
MORNING FOG CAN`T BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT SEE RAIN
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM TODAY`S SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1210 PM EDT SATURDAY...

KEY MESSAGES:

1. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

2. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK.

A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT MONDAY. WITH THE AREA REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR, HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
MONDAY WILL RUN 3F TO 6F WARMER THAN NORMAL, RANGING FROM THE LOWER
80S TO LOWER 90S. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND
MAINLY CONFIDED TO THE MOUNTAINS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PULSE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING TO THE
VA/NC COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING AN ORGANIZED
LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAINLY
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

KEY MESSAGES:

1. THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

2. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

COOLER, DRIER WEATHER WILL SUCCEED THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, WINDS
WILL BECOME EASTERLY. THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ATLANTIC
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION INCREASING THE HUMIDITY STARTING FRIDAY.
MODELS ARE DOWNPLAYING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
UNTIL NEXT SUNDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE MID 80 TO
MID 90S BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SATURDAY...

PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY, WHICH MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO LIFR
RESTRICTIONS TO TERMINALS. THIS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE 10PM-12PM TIMEFRAME ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS. AREAS THAT SEE THE MOST RAINFALL WILL AGAIN HAVE A
CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CIGS AND VSBYS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. THESE RESTRICTIONS SHOULD LIFT AGAIN BY
THE 13-15 UTC TIMEFRAME FOR ALL TERMINALS.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS AND LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG. A
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY WILL BRING A
BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS AND BETTER CHANCE OF SUB-VFR. THIS
FRONT SHOULD BRING IN ENOUGH DRY AIR TO REDUCE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO BEING MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE, WHICH
WOULD LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK
OUTSIDE OF ANY RIVER VALLEY FOG THAT MAY DEVELOP NEAR BCB AND
LWB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EB
NEAR TERM...EB
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...EB