527
FXUS61 KRNK 021811 CCA
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
211 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
This weekend will be cooler as high pressure strengthening from
the northeast brings drier weather. A warm front approaching from
the southwest will increase our rain chances by the middle of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

1) Cooler and drier on Sunday.

Conditions will be a little cooler and drier on Sunday as wedging
into the mountains continues and higher pressure settles in. Winds
will continue to be from the east and gust to about 10-20 mph Sunday
afternoon and evening. Dew points in the 50s to 60s will bring
comfortable outdoor conditions with highs in the mid-60s to mid-70s.
The surface high pressure system will keep clouds mostly confined to
the mountains near the VA/NC border overnight and into tomorrow.
Winds will also briefly weaken overnight to allow radiative cooling
and bring early morning temperatures as low as in the 50s along
and west of the Blue Ridge. Patchy fog cannot be ruled out in
the morning, especially for the West Virginia counties. A trough
makes its way towards the Mid-Atlantic by Sunday evening but
with the surface high and dry conditions, any precipitation will
likely be upslope based and confined to the mountainous
counties along the VA/NC state border.

Confidence in this forecast is high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Points:

1. Cooler than normal temperatures.
2. Isolated/Scattered showers/storms across far western sections of
the area.

A look at the 2 Aug 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential
Heights shows a longwave trough over the northeast US and far
southeast Canada on Saturday evening. A trailing shortwave through
is expected to be moving east of James Bay. A broad area of ridging
is expected across the southern half of CONUS. A closed low is
expected to be over the Gulf of Alaska. For Monday/Monday night, a
weakness in the height field is centered over the Upper to Mid
Mississippi Valley. Ridging is expected over the far southwest and
far southeast US. A low over the Gulf of Alaska is expected to open
into a more progressive wave the Pacific Northwest and British
Columbia. For Tuesday/Tuesday night, a weakness remains over the
Mississippi Valley, and expands slightly east into western sections
of the Gulf Coast states and the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys.
Little change is expected across the remainder of CONUS. There may
be a weak shortwave trough moving across the area of MN/WI/MI.

At the surface high pressure will extend from Hudson Bay to the mid-
West to the mid-Atlantic region on Sunday night. On its eastern
flank, a nose of high pressure will be extending southwest along the
lee of the Appalachians to GA/SC. A front will be stalled over the
Gulf Coast states, extending to a low over west TX. An inverted
trough will extend north from this front into parts of KY/TN. For
Monday/Monday night, little change in the overall pattern is
expected. The same can be said for Tuesday/Tuesday night, however, a
se-nw oriented baroclinic zone may start to establish itself over
parts of the Mississippi Valley.

A look at the 2 Aug 00Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness data
shows 850mb temperatures are expected to be around +12C Sunday night
and warm to to around +15C for Monday. Values around +14C to +15C
are expected Monday night into Tuesday. The values Monday night are
expected to fall within the 2.5 to 10 percentile of the 30-year CFSR
climatology.

The above weather patterns offers the following forecast. After the
onset today, Saturday, our region will experience a similar weather
pattern for the next several days. A cold air damming pattern will
keep conditions on the cooler and cloudier than average side into
early next week. Precipitation will be lacking for much of the
central and eastern parts of the area. The presence of an inverted
trough over parts of KY/TN, and clockwise flow around the ridge
axis, will allow for the potential for isolated/scattered
showers/storms across the far western and southwestern sections of
the area.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is high.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Points:

1. Gradually increasing temperatures through the period, but most
days will still be slightly below normal.
2. Coverage of showers/storms will gradually increase through the
period.

A look a the 2 Aug 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential Heights
shows for Wednesday/Wednesday night a weakness in the height field
slowly heading east to over our region. Ridging continues across the
southwest and south central portions of CONUS and also over
FL/GA. The trough over the Pacific Northwest trends into a
longwave trough pattern. A shortwave trough moves through the
Upper Peninsula of Michigan. For Thursday/Thursday night, the
height weakness will be over our region. The MI shortwave trough
is expected to reach northern sections of New England. Otherwise,
little change is expected in the synoptic pattern across CONUS.
For Friday/Friday night, the Pacific Northwest longwave pattern
shifts east to over MT/WY/ND/SD. A strong ridge persists over
southwest CONUS. Ensemble averaging washes out the weakness that
was over our region on Thursday. Little change is expected on
Saturday to the overall pattern from Friday. Perhaps the Northern
Plains longwave trough may amplify a bit.

At the surface, for Wednesday/Wednesday night, still very limited
changes in the surface features are expected across eastern CONUS as
compared to Tuesday. However, the a developing front to our west may
make additional progress to the east. For Thursday/Thursday night,
lee side ridging continues along the east coast, with the center of
the parent high departing northeast over the St. Lawrence Seaway.
The front to our west may stall just east of the Mississippi Valley.
For Friday/Friday night, there may be a weakening of the lee side
ridge, but the overall pattern is expected to remain the same. For
Saturday, limited differences are noted as compared to Friday.

A look at the 2 Aug 00Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness data
shows 850mb temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday are expected to
be around +15C across the area. These values increase to around +16C
on Friday and +17C or +18C for Saturday.

The above weather patterns offers the following forecast. A cold air
damming pattern is expected across our region through the start of
the upcoming weekend. However, as the week progresses, the strength
of the lee side ridge will ever so slowly weaken. This will allow
for showers/storms to progressively impact a greater portion of the
region, rather than just the far western sections. Additionally,
while temperatures will gradually trend warmer through the period,
most days will be slightly below normal until Saturday when slightly
above normal temperatures are expected.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate to high.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Saturday...

Cloud ceilings will gradually rise and bring all terminals to
VFR status this afternoon and evening. A surface high pressure
system will keep sky conditions partly to mostly cloudy and keep
precipitation chances very low for all airports. KLWB is the
only terminal expected to return to a sub-VFR category due to
overnight and early Sunday morning fog. Worst case scenario is
flight rules degrade to as low as IFR, but KLWB should return to
VFR by mid-morning. Otherwise winds will be from the east and
become more northeasterly/northerly with some gusting to about
10-15 kts.

Confidence in this forecast is high.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

With the exception of early morning fog, the drier and cooler
air mass should keep all terminals at VFR during the daytime for
the next few days. Sub-VFR conditions for all terminals will be
likely by the middle of next week when another chance of
precipitation arrives to the region.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CG/SH
NEAR TERM...CG
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...CG