959
FXUS61 KRNK 101804
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
204 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through Saturday. A low
pressure system will track along the Atlantic coastline bringing
a chance of showers to the area by late Saturday, continuing
through early Monday. Drier weather returns by Tuesday and
conditions remain dry through the middle of next week, with
temperatures warming to slightly above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1. Mix of mostly clouds and some sun through the rest of Friday,
with cooler temperatures.

2. Increasing clouds Saturday, rain arrives Saturday night.

The region remains under the influence of a strong high
pressure system centered over the northeast US, situated between
a low pressure system along a stationary front over the
southeast, and an upper trough digging into the north central
Plains, with an associated low pressure system over the Great
Lakes. The low to the southeast is progged to track northward
through today and Saturday, bringing widespread rainfall to the
eastern Carolinas and Virginia, reaching the easternmost
counties of the local forecast area by late Saturday.

Low level stratus has been fairly persistent through today so
far, thanks to some low level moisture advection by the east to
southeasterly flow. Despite this, the morning sounding at RNK
showed a PWAT of only 0.31", with a significant amount of dry
air above 850mb, most of the moisture concentrated at the
surface.

For the overnight into Saturday morning, patchy fog will
develop for a few hours mainly in the river valleys, and
confined to areas where there will be clearer skies overnight,
so mainly for southeast West Virginia. With the dry air,
thinking fog will have a hard time developing in locations where
there is too much cloud cover for decent radiational cooling.

Temperatures thus far today have been limited by the cloud cover
and held into the mid 50s in the west to low 60s in the east.
Lows tonight will be more mild, only in the low 40s in the west
and low 50s in the east. Tomorrow looks to be warmer, but a
similar scenario may play out if there are not enough breaks in
the clouds for stronger daytime heating.



&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Coastal low to bring a chance of precipitation for central
Virginia.

2) Warming trend begins next week.

A coastal low is still projected to move north along the coastline
and bring a chance of precipitation for areas east of the Blue
Ridge. Precipitation may begin as early as Saturday night and
continue until Monday night as the storm system moves north and
eventually into the Atlantic by mid-next week. Current model
guidance places central Virginia as the most likely to receive
rainfall, but generally speaking, the more east you are, the more
likely you are to receive rain. The highest rainfall expected
is currently estimated to be around 0.50-0.75".

There will be an increase in wind speeds as the coastal low moves to
our east. Winds will transition from northeasterly to northerly and
gust between 20-25 mph east of the Blue Ridge due to the coastal
low`s pressure gradient. Winds at 850mb will gust between 25-30 mph,
and may affect the ridge tops of the Blue Ridge. These gusts,
however, are heavily dependent on how the angle the winds blow
relative to the ridge line so this will be monitored for any edits.

Upper level ridging centered above Texas will build up and spread
over most of the United States to bring a warming trend. This will
be felt in the Mid-Atlantic by week as 500mb heights climb and
temperatures rise. Temperatures will not necessarily be "hot" but
warmer than normal with highs rising towards the 60s and 70s.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

1) Warming trend continues next week until possible cold front
arrives.

The coastal low may meander a bit in the Atlantic before deciding to
either head further east or hit the mainland more northeast of us,
but it is currently not expected to affect our region for the Long
Term Forecast. The 500 mb ridge continues to be centered above Texas
as a crude looking omega block with two upper level lows to its
northwest and northeast. This ridge weakens a little and its axis
moves eastward to be positioned meridionally from the Great Lakes to
the Deep South. Persistent high 500mb heights will continue to
support above normal temperatures in the region with high
temperatures in the 60s and 70s. Model guidance signals a cold
front arriving in the latter half of next week, which could take
temperatures down just a little. It is too early to know for
certain if this cold front will bring in a chance of
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 135 PM EDT Friday...

A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions across the area this afternoon,
as mid to low clouds persist for most of the area east of the
Blue Ridge. Through the remainder of the day, low clouds will
start to scatter out east of the mountains, but high clouds will
start to push in from the east, as a low pressure system tracks
northward along the coast, though ceilings look to return to or
stay at VFR overnight. The area of low clouds have been pretty
persistent through the day so far, so would not be surprised if
it takes longer than expected to clear out, and so may be
changed in subsequent forecast updates.

Terminals east of the Blue Ridge will see more OVC skies by 18Z
Saturday with the approach of the low pressure system. However,
not thinking any precipitation will reach KDAN or KLYH until
after the end of the current TAF period.

Winds will turn northerly through the overnight, and then more
easterly by Saturday afternoon, in the 5 to 10 knot range.

A few hours of patchy fog could bring reduced visibilities
Saturday morning in the river valleys where there is enough
clearing overnight, so have only included fog in the TAFs for
KBLF and KLWB. Not as confident in fog development for KBCB, due
to continued BKN skies, so have opted to leave out at this
time.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Rain is expected for much of the area late Saturday through
Sunday, with the greatest chances east of the Blue Ridge, which
will bring sub VFR ceilings and visibilities, as a low pressure
system moves along the coast, and gusty winds are possible
for the weekend and into Monday. Drier weather returns for the
start of the next work week, lasting through most of the week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AS/SH
NEAR TERM...AS
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...AS