789
FXUS61 KRNK 230011
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
811 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty winds in the wake of a cold front will continue through
Saturday, as a much drier cooler airmass settles over the
region. Below normal temperatures are expected over the weekend
and into the beginning of next week. A warm front lifting
northward into the Mid Atlantic will bring the next opportunity
for precipitation by Sunday night and into Monday, and
precipitation chances remain through the middle of the work
week.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Windy conditions continue

2) Chance of upslope precipitation overnight and into Friday

Scattered showers have moved through the area this evening, and
have reached as far east as Southside VA. This activity is
fairly progressive, and most of the showers east of the
mountains should push east and out of the area within the next
hour or two. Coverage will then reduce to just the western
upslope areas through the overnight. Winds will remain breezy
overnight, and gusts increase again tomorrow. Otherwise, Friday
still looks to be dry for the majority of the area. Minor
adjustments made to temperatures to blend in current
observations and trends.

Previous discussion below...


As OF 230 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

The cold front will be fully through by Friday, however the wind
gusts will still persist for the next few days. Aided by a low level
jet that remains over the Mid-Alantic, wind gusts will remain
strongest at higher elevations though they will be a little weaker
than Thursday. Sustained winds of 10-20 mph are expected to continue
into Thursday night and Friday with wind gusts of 25-35 mph forecast
in mountainous areas along and west of the Blue Ridge.

Drier and cooler air will become more noticeable as dew points will
drop to the lower 30s and 40s and Friday morning temperatures will
be in the 40s and 50s. Wind chills will likely go as low as the 30s
at higher elevations. An upper level cut-off low will dip slightly
southward to send a few shortwaves to the region but with such dry
air (PWATs as low as 0.25 inches) any precipitation will likely be
upslope and confined to the western mountain counties. Western
Greenbrier currently looks to be the place to receive the most
precipitation if any develops.

Confidence in the wind forecast is high.
Confidence in the temperature forecast is high.
Confidence in the precipitation forecast is average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:
1. Dry Friday and Saturday.
2. Showers return Sunday.
3. Below normal temperatures.

A look at the 22 May 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential
Heights shows a closed upper low Friday evening centered over New
England. An upper ridge was situated from the Rockies north to
Hudson Bay. By Saturday evening, little movement is expected for the
upper low the center over the Canadian Maritimes. Additionally,
little change is also expected for the ridge. By Sunday evening,
there is still little change in the ridge/trough pattern noted
above. Flow across our region is expected to be zonal.

At the surface, Friday evening low pressure will be situated near ME
with an associated trough axis extending southwest just onshore into
the Carolinas. High pressure will extend south from Hudson`s Bay
to the Gulf Coast states. Low pressure will be over the Four
Corners region. For Saturday and Saturday night, little change
is expected in the surface features from Friday. For
Sunday/Sunday night, the ridge axis shifts east and covers much
of the mid-Atlantic region. The Four-Corners low shifts east
into TX. An associated warm front develops east of this low and
extends into the Gulf Coast States.

A look at the 22 May 00Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness data
shows 850mb temperatures ranging from +3C to +7C, n-s, across
the area. These values correspond to the 2.5 to 10 percentile of
the 30- year CFSR climatology. For Saturday, values increase to
roughly +7C to +10C, n-s. On Saturday night, values are
slightly milder than those of Friday night with +5C to +10C, ne-
sw. Value continue an upward trend, reaching +8C to +12C, ne-sw
on Sunday and on Sunday night.

The above weather patterns offer the following forecast. Little in
the way of precipitation Friday night through Saturday night.
Showers return to the forecast Sunday into Sunday night with the
proximity of the warm front to our south. While temperatures
are expected to creep upward through the period, values will be
below normal for this time of year.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is high.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...

A look a the 22 May 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential
Heights shows on Monday an upper ridge extending from the Four
Corners region north then northeast towards Hudson Bay. A trough is
expected to be centered over Newfoundland and Greenland. A weaker
trough will be situated west to east over the Upper Mississippi
Valley into the western Great Lakes region. Flow across our
region is zonal. By Tuesday into Tuesday evening, the trough
swings east into the eastern Great Lakes region and Lower Ohio
Valley. Flow over our area starts to back southwest. On
Wednesday into Wednesday evening, the axis of the trough shifts
into our area. Ridging continues over western CONUS. By
Thursday, the trough is expected to have amplified a bit, and be
centered over or just east of our region.

At the surface, on Monday/Monday night will be situated from the
Great Lakes region to New England. Low pressure will be over TX with
an associated warm front extending east into the Gulf Coast States.
For Tuesday/Tuesday night, high pressure will be centered over the
western Great Lakes with a ridge axis extending south into the
Central Plains states. For Tuesday/Tuesday night, little
movement is expected regarding the surface high. Low pressure is
expected to move east along the warm front then progress into
Lower Ohio Valley. For Wednesday/Wednesday night, the central US
ridge expands in area and shifts southeast. This shift towards
the southeast continues on Thursday with the high expected to be
over the Lower Ohio River Valley by evening.

A look at the 22 May 12Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness data
shows 850mb temperatures on Monday ranging from +10C to +13C, ne-sw.
Similar values are expected Monday night. On Tuesday, values will
range from +10C to +13C, nw-se. Tuesday night, expect a small drop
to +9C to +11C, nw-se. On Wednesday, anticipate values of +10C to
+12C, nw-se. For Wednesday night, expect +7C to +10C. For Thursday,
expect a fairly uniform +11C to +12C over the region.

The above weather patterns offer the following forecast. We will
remain in a wet pattern on Memorial Day with the warm front still
immediately to our south. On Tuesday, low pressure will approach the
region, first lifting the warm front north across our region, and
then passing to our north with its associated cold front then
crossing the area Tuesday evening. On Wednesday, the first low and
its associated weather exits the region, but a secondary low moving
through the eastern Great Lakes will help keep clouds and the chance
of precipitation over parts of the region. On Thursday, high
pressure will start to be building into the area. However, its
center still may be too far west to preclude residual upslope
flow showers across the mountains. Temperatures should trend
milder through the period, reaching values near normal by
Wednesday/Thursday.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 750 PM EDT Thursday...

Scattered light to moderate rain showers are crossing the area
from west to east this evening, as far east as the VA Southside.
Expect coverage of this activity to reduce to just the western
upslope areas in southeast WV through the overnight hours. VFR
conditions are observed currently at all terminals, and will
continue through most of TAF period outside of KBLF and KLWB,
where sub VFR ceilings and low clouds will develop overnight and
through tomorrow morning. Clouds will lift after 12Z or so
Friday, so terminals in the west will see ceilings rise back to
VFR, and terminals in the Piedmont and Southside will be clear.

Westerly winds will become gusty again Friday after 14Z, with
gusts between 20 to 30 knots possible, for all terminals west of
the Blue Ridge and including KLYH, especially along the higher
terrain. Winds will remain breezy overnight for most terminals,
in the 10 to 15 knot range, though not as gusty, the exception
being KBLF, where gusts to 20 knots could continue through the
night.


Forecast confidence is moderate.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR conditions are forecast for all terminals through the
weekend. However, west to northwesterly winds will remain gusty
through Saturday. Rain showers and sub VFR ceilings and
visibilities return by later Sunday, as a front lifts from the
southeastern states towards the Mid Atlantic.


&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AS
NEAR TERM...AS/CG
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AS