247
FXUS61 KRNK 152317
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
717 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated forecast per recent guidance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Significant heat today through Friday however we look to
stay below heat advisory or warning criteria.

2) Scattered daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
return for Friday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Significant heat today through Friday, however
we look to stay below heat advisory or warning criteria.

Dry upper ridge of high pressure will allow for abnormally hot
conditions this afternoon and another hot day Thursday. Have
adjusted some slightly lower afternoon temps and dewpts given
possible filtering from Canadian smoke aloft and afternoon
mixing. Resultant heat indices should mainly stay under the 105
deg threshold but may still exceed 100 in parts of the Piedmont
and Roanoke Valley so it will still be dangerous for those
outdoors despite not in a heat advisory. Friday looks quite
similar across this area since possible shower and storm relief
should be mainly confined to the mountains.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Scattered daily afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms return for Friday into the weekend.

The aforementioned ridge dampens and breaks down by Friday allowing
for a return of moisture advecting in from the west and increased
chances for diurnally driven convection mainly across the
mountains. Coverage of showers and storms should increase for
Saturday as an amplified shortwave trough digs into the area. On
the heels of this feature, a frontal boundary is progged to
track SEWD for Sunday and again allow for increased coverage of
convection. For now shear parameters are not impressive though
low level lapse rates could be quite high so some stronger
convection could have enhanced downdraft winds each day. Another
disturbance could increase precip chances early next week
though there is some lack of guidance consensus and thus
uncertainty that far out.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR conditions look to last through the period outside of
possible morning river valley fog at BCB and LWB. While surface
VSBYs look to remain clear, some smoke from wildfires in
Canada/Upper Midwest that have blown over the area may impact
VSBYs aloft. Winds look to remain light across the area at
around 5 knots or less, with a generally NW flow expected for
most terminals on Thursday.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Shower and storms chances return Friday across the mountains and
become more widespread across the area into the weekend, with
potential sub- VFR or lower conditions. Mountain valley fog/low
stratus will also be possible each morning.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AB
AVIATION...AB/EB