919
FXUS61 KRNK 151349
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
849 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Special Weather Statement issued for Greenbrier and Bath
Counties due to some light freezing rain possibly mixing in with
the rain this morning. Precipitation will change to just rain in
the next few hours. Otherwise, no other significant changes to
the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread rain today with Marginal Risk for excessive
rainfall.

2) Much warmer temperatures this week, with mostly quiet weather
until rain chances return late week as multiple systems move
through.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Widespread rain today with Marginal Risk for
excessive rainfall.

A vigorous area of low pressure over the lower Mississippi
Valley will move east today crossing the southern Appalachians
and Southeast States. Southerly winds will tap rich supply of
Gulf moisture with large swath of moderate to locally heavy rain
for much of the southeast CONUS in addition to a line of
thunderstorms that will rake the Deep South. For our forecast
area we are anticipating a day of much needed rain. Some of the
colder elevations across our northern CWA may experience a rain
snow mix this morning, but warming aloft and lack of subfreezing
air at the surface should ensure this to be an almost entirely
rain event. The period of rain should last about 12-15
hours...onset this morning and ending by midnight tonight.

Temperatures today will rise very little. May see readings sneak
into the 40s, but clouds and persistent precip will mute the
diurnal recovery. Once the air is saturated, dewpoints will also
come up, so look for patchy fog and mist to go along with the
rain. For areas that still have some snow cover (Highlands and
into the Greenbrier Valley) watch for patchy dense fog per
relatively warm air passing over the cold ground. Will also have
low visibility issues in the higher elevations where the cloud
base intersects the ridge tops...the HRRR forecasting sub-half
mile visibility for the Blue Ridge Parkway, along with the
other various mountain tops/ridges this afternoon and evening.

This storm is expected to deposit about an inch of rain for most
folks with localized amounts of up to 1.25 within the areas of
strongest isentropic lift. Models suggest a narrow corridor of
stronger lift to pass along the VA/NC border...so this may be
the geographic area to watch for these higher amounts.

Flood risk is low. The Weather Prediction Center maintains a
Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall over most of the forecast
area. While localized urban and poor drainage flooding is
possible, this widespread soaking is generally beneficial due to
ongoing drought conditions. In order to exceed the rain
expectation we would need some instability which is lacking
this far north latitude. CAPE forecast for our CWA is anemic...
mixed layer under 50 j/kg. Thunderstorm probs get up to about 5%
in the piedmont late this afternoon, so this would be the only
area that probabilistically could exceed rainfall expectation
if deep convection where to occur. All things considered, no
headlines for flooding planned.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Much warmer temperatures this week, with mostly quiet
weather until rain chances return late week as multiple systems move
through.

High pressure builds in across the Southeastern US for the early
part of this week, keeping dry conditions in place through midweek.
Upper-level ridging will also be in place, with a mostly zonal flow
aloft. The high shifts east into the Atlantic late Tuesday, with a
warm southwesterly flow returning to the region. This will cause
temperatures to be well above normal for the first time in weeks,
around 15-20 degrees above normal. Highs will be in the 50s on
Monday, but rise into the 60s area-wide each day for the rest of the
week through Friday. Some locations in the southern Piedmont will
likely rise into the low 70s late week. Overnight lows mainly remain
in the 40s. By Saturday, a cold front will have moved through, with
a big cooldown expected late next weekend.

Rain chances return late Wednesday into Thursday, as upper-level
energy will remain off to our north, but enough moisture along with
a weak boundary across the northern Mid-Atlantic may allow for some
light showers in the WV mountains. Confidence is low in coverage of
rainfall initially, but light showers are expected to spread across
the mountains and areas east of the Blue Ridge on Thursday with PoPs
around 30%. On Friday, the next system and main cold front move into
the area. Models are inconsistent with rain coverage once again for
the late week system, but PoPs are around 40-50% for the entire area
as the front moves through. Temperatures will be warm enough that
all precipitation will fall as rain.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR conditions this morning, transitioning to IFR/LIFR this
afternoon and evening.

High confidence for deteriorating weather conditions this
morning with lowering cloud bases leading to cigs between 1K-3K
after 15Z/10AM then blo 1kft after 21Z/4PM. Visibility will
also lower with time, light to moderate rain occurring across
the entire area through about 03Z/10PM this evening. Ridge
obscurations are likely this afternoon and evening...surface
winds under 10 kts.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Precipitation moves east of the area after 03Z/10PM Sunday
night.

VFR conditions develop Monday and last through Wednesday. The
exception will be some upslope rain showers and borderline MVFR
ceilings in the mountains Wednesday.

Winds will shift to the north behind the departing storm over
the southeast CONUS tonight, then transition back to a
southwesterly direction by Tuesday. By Wednesday, increasing SW
winds may become gusty to 25 knots as front approaches from the
northwest.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CG/JCB/PM
AVIATION...PM