264
FXUS61 KRNK 052005
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
405 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will approach from the west on Friday and stall over
the region through the weekend. This will result in unsettled
weather into early next week with a daily chance of showers and
thunderstorms. A stronger front will arrive during the middle of
next week, followed by a drier airmass.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Scattered showers and thunderstorm chances increase for areas
   west of the Blue Ridge tomorrow.

An approaching frontal boundary Friday afternoon will provide
forcing for scattered showers and thunderstorms for much of the
area west of the Blue Ridge, with isolated thunderstorms east of
the Blue Ridge. Instability looks to be around 1000 J/Kg of
SBCAPE, which combined with around 700-800 J/Kg of DCAPE will
provide a potential for strong to severe wind gusts with
stronger thunderstorms that develop. Deep layer shear in the
0-6km layer of around 30 knots will provide enough support for
multicellular storm clusters to develop as they push into the
area from the west during the afternoon and evening hours. With
freezing levels around 10000ft on Friday, the hail threat will
be minimal given the low instability levels. A few of the
stronger storms may produce pea to dime size hail, but the
forecast environment does not look to support larger hail at
this time.

Low clouds and patchy fog will likely be present for most across
the area Friday morning; however, this should quickly lift
through the mid morning hours as temperatures increase quickly
due to daytime heating. Some scattered clouds will likely
develop across the area through the afternoon before showers and
thunderstorms push in from the west. Temperatures overnight
should drop into the low 60s to upper 50s again across the area,
with highs climbing into the mid to upper 80s east of the Blue
Ridge, and upper 70s to low 80s west of the Blue Ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1200 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

1) Rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend.

Active pattern expected through the fcst period as a series of upper
impulses look to traverse eastward across the mainly zonal flow
aloft. This combined with marginal deep layer shear near 30 kts and
diurnally enhanced CAPE near 1000 J/kg should allow for rounds of
scattered convection with possible more organized storm modes of
multicells or MCSs. Some strong to isolated severe storms will be
possible with damaging winds as the main threat. SPC does have most
of the area with a Marginal Risk on Saturday and a Slight Risk in
the SW CWA and wouldn`t be surprised if a portion of the area was
outlooked in future updates for Sunday. QPF looks manageable and
with mainly dry antecedent conditions the overall flooding threat
looks quite low to very isolated. Progged PWATs are pretty high
though near 1.75 inches so any training storms could bring the
isolated threat from hydrometeor loading.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1200 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

1) Precipitation chances continue daily.

While in the wake of an upper wave from Sunday, another axis of
moisture and boundary looks to stall near the NW for Monday so have
the greater chance pops mainly along and west of the Blue Ridge.
Stronger dynamics look to be in play however for late Monday
overnight into Tuesday as a higher amplitude shortwave swings in
from the TN Valley and pushes the front SEWD. Will need to monitor
updates for any potential of stronger more organized storm potential
with this feature. For Wednesday some guidance is in pretty good
consensus with how far south the boundary and moisture extends
behind the disturbance. For now have chance pops for development
across the southern majority and slight pops north.

Temps generally a bit above climo with highs in the 70s for the
mountains and low to mid 80s for the Piedmont. Warmest day looks to
be Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

MVFR to IFR CIGs look to develop at LYH, DAN, and LWB as
lingering moisture across the area. Areas of fog also look
possible again tonight across the Piedmont and river valleys in
the western mountains. Visibilities don`t look to remain at MVFR
levels through the late overnight and early morning hours before
lifting during the mid morning as heating occurs throughout the
morning and early afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms look to
push in from the west as a frontal boundary approaches the
region during the afternoon. No Thunder chances has been added
yet since most of this storm activity looks to push into the
area after 18 UTC on Friday. This will likely be added in
subsequent TAF updates for BCB, LWB, BLF, and ROA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Daily chance of rain and thunderstorms through Tuesday could
bring periods of sub-vfr, along with patchy valley fog each
morning.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...Air Quality Alert until 10 PM EDT this evening for WVZ042>044-
     507-508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG/EB
NEAR TERM...EB
SHORT TERM...AB
LONG TERM...AB
AVIATION...EB/WP