616
FXUS61 KRNK 050005
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
805 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will keep the weather mostly and quiet through the
holiday weekend. Chances for showers and thunderstorms return
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1. A mostly dry evening. Ideal for 4th July celebrations.

2. Near seasonal temperatures.

Scattered showers/storms which developed along I-64 corridor
have diminished. Covington and Lexington got some wetting, but
most areas remained dry today. Goshen ended up the winner with
respect to rainfall with radar estimating close to 2 inches
falling near Lake Merriweather. A gage report from Rockbridge
Baths measured 1.61, and about two tenths of an inch occurred in
Lexington.

For the remainder of the evening, expecting tranquil weather.
Surface high pressure and subsidence should promote dry weather
with mostly clear skies through the remainder of the holiday.
Patchy fog is possible tomorrow morning, especially in the
river valleys and around the Alleghany Highlands, as the
atmosphere decouples and an inversion sets in. Fog should
dissipate fairly quickly after sunrise tomorrow with daytime
heating and mixing, most likely by 9am or so.

Saturday looks to be another mainly dry day, as high pressure
and a dry airmass remains overhead. Will likely see clouds
develop by the afternoon again, and high temperatures similar to
today.

The National Hurricane Center has begun issuing advisories for
Tropical Deppression Three in the Atlantic, which is expected to
impact the Carolinas. For more information go to hurricanes.gov

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

1) Tropical disturbance off the Georgia coast to potentially
impact southeastern portion of the region.

The main takeaway with this part of the forecast is the tropical
disturbance off the eastern coast of Georgia is projected to go
inland and travel northeast through the states of North
Carolina and eastern Virginia. Hurricane Hunters are planning to
investigate the storm system further which will assist in
understanding its potential strength and movement. The NHC has a
70% chance of this system developing into a tropical storm
within the next 2 days. Even if this system was to become a
tropical storm, it would quickly lose strength once it hits the
mainland. Current hurricane model guidance suggests the storm
may be inland enough to affect areas east of the Blue Ridge,
especially in the NC Piedmont and Southside VA. The overall
impact of this system looks to be minimal as winds will become
easterly and shift to northwesterly as the system passes with
wind gusts only up to 15 mph. Precipitation accumulation looks
to be up to 0.25" but confidence in this part of the forecast is
currently weak given the uncertainty of the storm`s projected
path.

Otherwise, dew points will begin to rise into the 60s and 70s
regionwide and high temperatures will be in the mid-70s to mid-80s
as a frontal system approaches from the northwest. The heat index is
expected to be below Heat Advisory criteria but will be close to 90
degrees for areas east of the Blue Ridge.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

1) Multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms next week.

An approaching frontal system will stall over the Mid-Atlantic mid-
next week to provide a boundary for storm initiation. Meanwhile,
two upper level ridges form over the southwestern CONUS and southern
coastal CONUS. While the southwestern ridge will do more of the
heavy lifting, these systems will bring relatively zonal winds to
the area and direct shortwaves from the Great Plains and through the
Mid-Atlantic. Several shortwaves are expected next week and with the
boundary front, as well as moist and hot conditions, daily showers
and thunderstorms are expected to make a return to the region. While
diurnal heating will provide plenty of CAPE, Thursday afternoon
looks to be the only day to have enough shear for severe storm
potential. Machine Learning model guidance also suggests the highest
likelihood for severe weather will be during the latter half of next
week. PWATs are forecast to be between 1.25-1.75" which is a little
higher than this time of year, so repeated showers also raise a
concern for flooding. Confidence on flood and severe potential is
currently low due how far out these events are.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Friday...

Overall, VFR conditions will prevail for all TAF sites through the
current TAF period, ending at 00Z Sunday. Aside for some
scattered high level clouds and afternoon cumulus, not much to
speak of with respect to cloud cover. Winds through the period
are expected to remain light, less than 10 kts. Any late night
fog should be confined to the mountain valleys, potentially
impacting KLWB, otherwise no vsby restriction anticipated.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR conditions are expected outside of morning valley fog
through early next week. May see some isolated to scattered
storms Sunday into Monday with chances increasing into the
middle of next week. Moisture from TD Three is expected to
remain south and east of the forecast area, but may tease KDAN
late Sunday into Monday. Periods of heavy rain are expected
along the coast, mainly east of I-95... see hurricanes.gov for
details.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...AS/PM
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...PM