467
FXUS61 KRNK 200214
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1014 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate the weather pattern for the Mid-
Atlantic through the weekend, with a warm southwesterly wind
bringing well above average temperatures through Sunday. The
next chance of rain should come late Monday when a cold front
crosses the area. The front is expected to stall to our south,
keeping unsettled weather possible through the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1014 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Late evening surface map shows a nearly stationary front
stretching from southwestern Pennsylvania to southwestern
Kentucky (near Paducah). Most of the active weather associated
with this front has remained north of our area and well west of
the region (closer to stronger kinematic fields associated with
the upper low). Weather conditions will remain quiet overnight,
with only high clouds expected overnight in the southwest to
west flow aloft.

Overall, the forecast remains on track with only minor tweaks
here and there to the sensible weather elements.

As of 737 PM EDT Saturday...

No major changes are planned for the ongoing forecast. High
level cloud cover continues to expand across the region from
west to east. Some lowering and thickening of the clouds is
possible later tonight across northern and western parts of the
region. Winds are still expected to decrease fairly quickly
after sunset, with most locations experiencing light and
variable or calm winds by midnight. Have made minor adjustments
to the hourly temperature and dew point forecast through the
evening hours based upon the latest observations and expected
trends through a few hours past sunset.

As of 245 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Unseasonably warm temperatures

2) Muddled moonshine and sunshine

Debris clouds from showers/storms along a frontal boundary to
our west is producing enough upper level cloudiness to dim the
sun at times. Would expect the same for the moon tonight.
Aside from the cirrus, not expecting any precip, although may
see some virga or light returns on our radar. Remainder of the
weekend, as a whole, is expected to remain dry.

Saturday`s southwesterly breeze is expected to diminish at
sunset, leaving us with light winds overnight and into the day
Sunday. Easter is looking quite nice with another repeat day of
above seasonal warmth, temperatures about 15 degrees warmer than
normal. This is a win, making up for so many past Easters that
have been cold and weather unfriendly.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM EDT Saturday...

Key messages:

    - Highest confidence of precipitation Monday afternoon through
      Tuesday morning

    - Temperatures remain above normal

NBM plumes and timing of front have the highest probability of
precipitation Monday night and Tuesday morning in the 40 to 70
percent range. Will have up to a 20 percent chance of thunder with
this band of precipitation. Most locations will have less than 0.10
inch of rain, outside of any thunderstorms. By Tuesday night, as the
front stalls over the Carolinas, a low probability of showers and
thunderstorms continues across northern North Carolina.

The wind will become gusty by Monday afternoon well ahead of the
front, especially west of a Lewisburg to Boone line. This will bring
additional low level moisture into the region. Expecting a brief
period of gusty wind behind the front late Monday night from the
west. Winds of Tuesday will be lighter but the prevailing direction
will depend on the location of the boundary.

The upper ridge flattens on Monday, but 500 MB heights remain
support of a warm airmass. Temperatures will be above normal through
the period. Monday will trend toward the warmer side of guidance
since the area will be in the warm sector. Tuesday and Wednesday
will have highs a bit cooler on the north side of the front and with
more cloud cover expected. Lows Tuesday night still look to be the
coolest of the week. Some locations in the mountains will drop back
into the 40s. Otherwise expect mild temperatures overnight, 10 to 20
degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Friday...

Key messages:

     - Above normal temperatures continue

     - No organized periods of rain

There is little consensus in the synoptic scale pattern in the
guidance Thursday through Saturday, which leads to lower confidence
in the resulting sensible weather. Timing of any rainfall is the
questionable part of the forecast. Higher confidence that
temperatures will remain above normal, especially overnight lows
through the period.

At the surface a weak boundary stalls west to east from the Southern
Plains to the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday. By Saturday the
baroclinic zone and stalled front are again oriented from the
Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions are expected through the conclusion of the
valid TAF forecast period, 00Z Monday/8PM EDT Sunday.

Winds will decrease in speed fairly quickly after sunset, with
most locations maintaining light and variable winds through
Sunday.

Isolated rain showers will be possible late Sunday afternoon
primarily in areas along and north of a KLWB-KFVX line.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

A the cold front moves into the area late Monday, bringing rain
chances back into the area with likely sub-VFR conditions for
all terminals through Wednesday.

The front heads south of the area Thursday, bringing a return
to VFR conditions for most locations.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...DB/DS/PM
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS/PM