441
FXUS61 KRNK 061753
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
153 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalling frontal boundary slowly pushing into the region
tonight and Saturday will bring daily rain and thunderstorm
chances for much of the area through at least Tuesday before a
stronger cold front passes through the area Tuesday. This cold
front is expected to be followed by surface high pressure, which
should return dry weather to the region through the end of the
work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 100 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Multiple rounds of showers and possibly strong to severe
   thunderstorms possible Saturday.
2) Low clouds and Fog could linger through midday for many
   on Saturday.

Saturday`s forecast continues to bring some question marks with it
as timing of convection tonight and overnight will play a large role
in the afternoon and evening development of thunderstorms across the
area on Saturday. The passage of an upper level shortwave during the
late overnight and early morning hours on Saturday may also lead to
lingering cloud debris from a dying MCS that is currently located
across OK/AR. Most CAM guidance seems to keep around this lingering
cloud debris from the aforementioned MCS, and light shower activity
through the mid morning hours. This will essentially scuttle any
meaningful development of instability across the area by Saturday
afternoon, that storm coverage and intensity may be on the light
side compared to what was initially expected. Current mean HREF
guidance has around 500-1000 J/Kg of SBCAPE for a majority of the
area Saturday through the peak heating, with the Piedmont and
northern NC closer to that 1000 J/Kg level. While this may deplete
chances for storm development across most areas north of the VA/NC
border, there is a chance that NW North Carolina and the NC Piedmont
may have some severe storm threat late Saturday as a mid to upper
level vorticity maxima traversing into either SW Virginia/western NC
per the GFS or central Tennessee per the ECMWF by 00Z  could bring
this chance of storm development if the GFS solution were to occur.
If the GFS` solution does occur where this mid level feature arrives
faster in the evening, it may be able to take advantage of an area
that may not have dealt with lingering cloud debris and remnant
outflow boundaries across northern North Carolina.

With The uncertainty in overnight and early morning cloud debris
from remnant thunderstorms, this will directly effect temperatures
across the area, with wide ranges possible for Saturday. Areas west
of the Blue Ridge are expected to see highs in the mid to upper 70s,
but pockets could see highs in the low 70s if cloud cover lingers.
Areas east of the Blue Ridge are expected to see temperatures in the
low to mid 80s, with a greater chance of seeing breaks in the clouds
throughout the day. Lows Saturday morning will generally start in
the low to mid 60s west of the Blue Ridge, and mid to upper 60s east
of the Blue Ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for chances of showers and thunderstorms
continuing into early next week.

2) Temperatures will stay above normal during this period.

An unsettled weather pattern will persist through the remainder of
the weekend and into early next week. Several upper level shortwave
troughs should spiral eastward across the Ohio River Valley. With
plentiful heat and moisture available, chances of showers and
thunderstorms will continue during this time period. The models hint
at one of these shortwave troughs crossing the Appalachian Mountains
on Sunday to focus more lift for convection. A marginal risk of
severe weather exists for Sunday afternoon and evening due to
notable instability present in the model soundings.

After a brief lull in convective activity during Sunday night into
early Monday, more showers and thunderstorms may develop across the
mountains towards Monday evening and Monday night as another upper
level shortwave trough approaches from the west. Details remain too
murky in the models to offer an idea on the potential for severe
weather risk during Monday evening. However, temperatures may rise a
few degrees on Monday with most locations witnessing highs in the
80s, which could offer more instability available for any storms.
Overall, temperatures will stay above normal during this period.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 120 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is moderate for more chances of showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday.

2) High pressure may bring drier conditions during Wednesday and
Thursday north of Route 460.

Tuesday may continue the chances of showers and thunderstorms as an
upper level shortwave trough crosses over the Appalachian Mountains.
A cold front will shove the moisture southward by Wednesday but
stall somewhere across the Southeast, while high pressure builds
across northern Virginia. Drier conditions may take hold north of
Route 460 during Wednesday and Thursday, but locations to the south
still might face a low chance of showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon. By Friday, high pressure to the north could weaken and
allow the stalled frontal boundary to edge closer to North Carolina
and spark a higher chance of afternoon convection. Temperatures
should remain near to above normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Friday...

Shower and thunderstorm activity is already getting initiated
across West Virginia this afternoon, these storms will likely
push east throughout the remainder of afternoon and evening,
with most activity remaining west of the Blue Ridge. As these
storms progress east, they will likely lead to brief MVFR to IFR
restrictions at BLF, LWB, BCB, and ROA through the afternoon and
evening if they enter near these terminals. These restrictions
should remain brief; however, overnight moisture left behind
from the storms combined with a possible dying MCS producing
lingering shower activity through the late overnight and early
morning hours may produce a prolonged period of MVFR to LIFR
CIGs and VSBYs at all terminals except DAN. These restrictions
should dissipate for terminals east of the Blue Ridge first
before slowly lifting for terminals west of the Blue Ridge.
This left over cloud debris may lead to suppressed storm
activity for Saturday afternoon just beyond the end of this TAF
period for terminals west of the Blue Ridge. Regardless,
current CAM guidance maintains at least MVFR to IFR CIGs and
VSBYs at BLF and LWB through the end of the TAF period on
Saturday, while a slow progression towards VFR occurs at BCB and
ROA throughout the late morning hours.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Daily chances of morning rain showers from lingering
thunderstorm activity pushing into the area combined with
daily chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will lead
to high chances for sub-VFR conditions on Sunday, Monday and
Tuesday before a much stronger cold front pushes into the area
and high pressure returns by Wednesday. This will bring the
return of VFR conditions at nearly all terminals. With moisture
lingering in the area through the end of the weekend and into
the beginning of the work week, valley fog and low CIGs look
possible as well each morning.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EB
NEAR TERM...EB
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...EB