261
FXUS61 KRNK 202320
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
720 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Rain chances were adjusted for this evening.

Aviation Forecast Updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A disturbance will bring the potential for heavy rain and
flash flooding across the Piedmont on Friday afternoon and
evening.

2) After continued showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, drier
weather returns Sunday and continues into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A disturbance will bring the potential for
heavy rain and flash flooding across the Piedmont on Friday
afternoon and evening.

A backdoor front will stall south of the region along the VA/NC
border tonight. This frontal boundary is providing a focal
point for storm activity to develop mainly across locations east
of our forecast area. However, the boundary still trails
southwest to just east of the Danville area. We could still see
some scattered showers/storms progressing through the evening
hours across this location. Across the upper levels, the axis of
a 500mb trough looks to swing just west of the region across
western Tennessee by Friday afternoon. As this happens, it will
provide additional forcing for ascent across the region. With
near 2.0 inch PWATs remaining in place across the Piedmonts of
VA/NC Friday afternoon, there is a decent chance for flash
flooding primarily east of the 29 corridor in Virginia and North
Carolina. These PWATs combined with the stalled front and upper
level forcing will lead to storms capable of producing 3-5 inch
per hour rainfall rates at times, which if these storms train
over the same areas they will likely lead to flash flooding
concerns. The largest flash flooding concerns look to be during
the later evening hours from 6pm to midnight for the areas
aforementioned above. Some uncertainty remains in the transient
nature of storms tomorrow, as faster moving storms along the
stalled boundary may lead to less chances for flash flooding.
Also, some CAM guidance keeps this boundary south of the area,
which would also keep the heaviest rainfall out of the area
leading to a much lower flash flood threat.


KEY MESSAGE 2...After continued showers and thunderstorms on
Saturday, drier weather returns Sunday and continues into early
next week.

Showers and thunderstorms look to continue across the area on
Saturday during the early morning hours across the Piedmont as
that backdoor front lifts north out of the region. During the
afternoon hours, a cold front looks to approach the region from
the northwest, which will lead to some isolated shower and
thunderstorm chances on Saturday afternoon and evening. By
Sunday, surface high pressure pushes into the region behind the
aforementioned cold front leading to much drier air over the
region through the middle of next week.

The aforementioned surface high pressure system looks to
eventually push east off the Mid-Atlantic states coastlines
into the western Atlantic leading to the return of warm moist
air and daily scattered shower and thunderstorm chances.

Temperatures overall look to remain near normal for this time of
year, with highs in the mid to upper 80s and low 90s across the
Piedmont, and upper 70s to low 80s west of the Blue Ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Primarily VFR conditions are expected through midnight across
the region. The exception will be some localized and brief sub-
VFR conditions any under heavy shower or storm that forms near
or east of the KDAN area. Elsewhere, the beginning of some
mountain/river valley fog will be possible before midnight.

Overnight, a backdoor front is expected to push down the east
side of the Blue Ridge, which will lead to IFR/LIFR CIGs and
VSBYs developing at all terminals between 06-09 UTC. These
restrictions look to linger at all terminals through much of the
TAF period, with most terminals remaining MVFR through 18 UTC
on Friday. Overnight patchy showers/mist is expected, which will
also lend towards sub-VFR conditions.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms look likely after 18UTC at
Piedmont terminals to include LYH and DAN as the backdoor front
lifts north through the region.

OUTLOOK...

Higher coverage of showers and thunderstorms is forecasted for
Friday, with continued widely scattered activity on Saturday.
This will result in sub-VFR conditions at times. Improved
flying conditions will return on Sunday into early next week as
drier air arrives across the lower Mid-Atlantic.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DS/EB
AVIATION...DS/EB