Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
917 FXUS61 KRNK 091753 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 153 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains in control through Saturday. A low pressure system will track along the Atlantic coastline bringing a chance of showers on Sunday. Drier weather returns by Monday and conditions remain dry through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 100 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: 1. Areas of frost possible in the mountain valleys again tonight. 2. Dry and cooler weather continues. High pressure now settled into the region, resulting in clear and dry conditions through Friday. Surface high is centered over southern Canada this afternoon, but will shift east over New England tonight and Friday. This will allow for cool high pressure to wedge south along the Appalachians. High pressure will be further enhanced by a developing low off the Carolina coast. Breezy northeast winds will continue through the evening, subsiding somewhat overnight, and then continue again on Friday. Overnight, sheltered mountain valleys should have light to calm winds. Along with clear skies and a dry airmass, this should allow for areas of patchy frost to develop, especially in the Greenbrier Valley and Highlands. A Frost Advisory has been issued to address the frost potential. Patchy dense fog will also be possible across the mountain valleys again tonight. Afternoon highs in upper 50s to mid 60s. Overnight, low 30s to mid 40s with similar afternoon highs again for Friday. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 150 PM EDT Thursday... Key Message: 1. Coastal Low to bring a chance of precipitation for the Piedmont of VA and NC. Wedging from a high pressure system to the northeast will continue but will weaken as a coastal low off the Carolinas forms and heads north. Model guidance suggests this system will travel along the coastline and be just west enough to bring a good chance of precipitation for the Piedmont of Virginia through North Carolina. The surface portion of the coastal low will bring a considerable change in wind direction and speed. As it moves north, winds across the region will noticeably shift from eastward Saturday to northwesterly by Monday morning. Wind gusts may pick up between 15- 25 mph by Sunday afternoon as the system passes by. The rain chances will most likely begin as early as Saturday night with total rain accumulations ranging between 0.25-0.50 inches for the more eastern counties. While the wind is more easterly, moisture from the Atlantic will arrive and increase surface dew point temperatures into the 50s and 60s. As the coastal low moves to our northeast, drier air will move back in and allow dew points to decline a little. Air temperatures will be mild with early morning lows in the 40s and 50s and highs in the 60s, broadly speaking. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 150 PM EDT Thursday... Key Message: 1. Warming trend next week as upper level ridge dominates forecast period. An upper level cutoff low will absorb the upper level portion of a coastal low and move out into the Atlantic early next week. Model guidance is a little uncertain on the exact timing, but are all in agreement of this pattern occurring. This is followed by a large upper level ridge that will be centered over Texas and bring a warming trend for most of the nation, including our region. While overall upper level flow will be from the northwest, increased 500mb heights will support high temperatures in the 60s and 70s. Dew points will fluctuate between the 40s and 50s so the overall weather pattern should be comfortable. No precipitation is currently expected for most of next week due to the ridge dominating the weather pattern. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Thursday... VFR conditions will prevail under high pressure. Northeast winds gust to 20kts or so through this evening, mainly east of the mountains. Winds diminish after sunset. Brief fog again at LWB/BLF early Friday morning. Winds breezy again during the day Friday, still from the northeast. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Extended period of dry weather becoming more likely. This will result in widespread VFR. With a drier air mass, fog development should become less of a concern. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for VAZ020. NC...None. WV...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for WVZ507-508. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMG NEAR TERM...BMG SHORT TERM...CG LONG TERM...CG AVIATION...BMG