851
FXUS61 KRNK 230017
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
717 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak upper level disturbance will pass over the area this
evening producing some cloud cover, but with little or no
precipitation. After the passage of this feature, high pressure
will dominate our weather pattern through the first half of the
upcoming week, with temperatures warming. It will also remain
dry with no meaningful rainfall until Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 715 PM EST Saturday...

Key Message:

1) Passing clouds tonight.

2) Sunny Sunday.

A weak upper level disturbance was over north central North
Carolina and will pass over the area this evening producing
some cloud cover, but with little or no precipitation. Will
likely be some virga, precipitation that evaporates before
reaching the ground, which will show up on radar, but the chance
of it reaching the surface is slim and even if it does it
should not be anything measurable. Models suggest best chance of
anything reaching the ground would be along the VA/NC border.

Aside for this disturbance, not much to highlight overnight.
Skies are expected to clear before sunrise resulting in a late
night dip in the temperature with lows ranging from the teens in
the mountains to the 20s in the piedmont.

For Sunday, High pressure will dominate. Expecting little or no
cloud cover with a full day of sunshine. Temperatures should
trend warmer with highs ranging from the 40s in the mountains
to the mid 50s in the piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Dry weather for all into Tuesday afternoon, then low chance for
rain showers in SE WV Tuesday evening

2) Moderating temperatures

Weak surface high will keep the area dry into Monday night with
disturbances passing to the north and south of the area. Warm air
advecting in from the south plus abundant sunshine Monday will have
temperatures warming into the low to mid 50s across the mountains
and upper 50s to lower 60s in the foothills and Piedmont. High
pressure will get shunted to the south as a another disturbance
tracks from the Great Lakes to Lake Erie Tuesday. No precipitation
is expected until the front crosses the central Appalachians Tuesday
evening. The highest chance for a wetting rain will be across
southeast West Virginia. With more warm air pumping into the region
ahead of the front, Tuesday`s high temperatures will warm into the
50s west of the Blue Ridge and 60s east.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) A progressive pattern will send a series of fronts into the
region.

2) Confidence is high for area-wide rain showers late Wednesday
night into early Thursday afternoon.

3) Warmer than normal temperatures Wednesday, cooler than normal
Friday.

A progressive weather pattern will bring a series of weak cold
fronts into the region through the period. With each passing front,
temperatures will trend cooler each day. Temperatures Wednesday will
run in the mid 50s to mid 60s then drops into the 40s and 50s on
Friday. We may get a bump in temperatures Saturday, but back down
again on Sunday.

The best chance for area-wide rain showers will come with a cold
front passing across the region late Wednesday night into Thursday.
The upper level portion of this system will keep precipitation
chances across the mountains Thursday night. Rainfall amounts will
range from a couple of hundredths of an inch in the Piedmont to a
third of an inch along western slopes.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 715 PM EST Saturday...

Prevailing VFR conditions are forecast areawide through the
24 hour valid TAF...winds light. There will be some mid level
cloudiness that passes across the area before midnight with
cloud bases 6-12kft. This is associated with a weak upper level
disturbance, but aside for some virga, expecting little or no
surface based precip and no restriction to vsby. After the
passage of the disturbance, skies will clear.

The wind turns to the southwest on Sunday as mixing begins, but
wind speeds will remain less than 10 kts.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Dry weather and VFR flight conditions are expected through
early next week. Wind flow gradually becomes more
southwest.

Thursday is the next opportunity for precipitation in the
region. MVFR ceilings are possible in the mountains Wednesday
night and Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 300 PM EST Saturday...

Based on the expected weather, Monday through Wednesday should
have windows of opportunity for burning, especially for grass
fuels. In general expecting weather that should support early
spring burn plans...light winds, mild temperatures and low
humidity.

As a reminder for non-federal and non-state land managers,
please be mindful of local and state laws. States, such as VA,
have burn laws. Virginia`s 4PM Burning Law prohibits open-air
burning before 4PM from February 15th through April 30th. The
law applies to fires within 300 feet of dry grass or woodland
areas.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AMS/PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/PM
FIRE WEATHER...PM