738
FXUS61 KRNK 171845
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
245 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stagnant airmass pattern along with a stalled frontal boundary
just north of the area will continue to allow daily afternoon storms
to form, with isolated damaging winds and flash flooding possible.
The summertime pattern continues through the weekend and into next
week, with warm and muggy conditions persisting.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 240 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Flood Watch in effect for most of the western half of the area
through midnight.

2) Showers and storms will continue into this evening.

3) Similar weather is expected again for tomorrow.

Storms are already ongoing this afternoon across the area, with more
showers/storms back to the west moving in. These will continue to
work east, using any available energy not already used by the
ongoing convection. Synoptically, a surface high in the western
Atlantic is wedging westward, with a westerly flow helping showers
and storms to form due to upslope flow. The diurnal heating along
with a very moist airmass has caused storms to form, with the
strongest along the southern Blue Ridge. Storms will continue to
produce very heavy rainfall rates around 2"+ per hour. This could
cause flash flooding, especially where recent heavy rains have
fallen. A Flood Watch is in effect for most of the western half
of the area through midnight tonight due to these factors.
Isolated severe weather is also possible this afternoon/evening,
with damaging winds as the threat. Storms will continue into
the early evening before tapering off overnight with the loss of
daytime heating.

Another area of storms is developing to our northwest, near the
Ohio/Kentucky border, near a cold front draped from the Great Lakes
into the Ohio Valley. CAM models vary on if these storms will
hold together to reach into the northwestern portion of the area
in WV later this evening. If it does, it would be into the
overnight hours when the storms would be weakening. For Friday,
little to no change in the pattern is expected, with afternoon
showers/storms once again developing in a similar fashion. More
coverage of storms is expected due to the front sagging south
into our area and stalling. Isolated damaging winds and flash
flooding will again be a threat, this time mainly for the
Piedmont.

Temperatures will be again slightly above average both today and
tomorrow, with highs in the 80s to lower 90s. With dewpoints in the
upper 60s to mid 70s. These factors will allow heat indices to soar
to near 100 with some areas over the century mark. Temperatures may
be a degree or two less tomorrow, due to more cloud cover and
convection anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 102 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for scattered showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon and evening.

2) Typical summertime heat and humidity should persist into the
weekend.

A cold front, caught in zonal flow, will stall across central West
Virginia and northern Virginia Saturday. Shortwaves tracking along
this boundary will help bring showers and thunderstorms to the area.
A few storms could become strong to severe over the foothills and
Piedmont. The primary threat will be damaging wind gusts. The
stalled boundary will lift northward Sunday as an upper level trough
pivots over the region. Instabilities will be weaker Sunday, keeping
the severe threat low, but some storms will still have the capability
to produce heavy rain and localized flooding.

High temperatures will generally run from the upper 70s to mid 80s
across the mountains and lower 90s in the foothills and Piedmont.
Overnight lows will remain muggy and about 10F warmer than
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 124 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Showers and thunderstorms chances remain into Monday.

2) A cold front may bring a couple of days of dry weather.

A backdoor cold front will wedge south across the region Monday.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms are likely with a few
become strong to severe. If any strong storms would develop, it will
likely occur along and south of the VA/NC border. Dry high pressure
will follow the front and stay over the region through at least
Thursday. With a northeast wind, temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday
will be a few degrees cooler than normal. Temperature will moderate
warmer each day into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR will be the main flight condition this afternoon across all
terminals. However, as storms continue to form this afternoon,
flight conditions near these storms will fall to MVFR or lower when
they move through. All sites will likely see some brief reduction in
flight conditions due to these storms at times. Winds will also be
elevated today, due to a tightened pressure gradient across the
area. Westerly wind will be 7-10 knots with gusts of 15-20 knots
possible, with even higher gusts possible in stronger thunderstorms.
Overnight, storms dissipate, with widespread VFR expected until
after 06z, when patchy dense fog is likely to form. The most likely
areas for this to occur are for LWB/BCB/BLF, as lighter winds are
anticipated west of the Blue Ridge. MVFR can be expected for
BLF/BCB, with LWB having limited visibility, and likely LIFR flight
conditions until mid-morning when the fog mixes out. Similar flight
conditions are expected tomorrow, though showers/storms are expected
to be more widespread, due to the stalled front sagging south into
our area.

Confidence in the above forecast is high.


.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

The summer pattern continues through the weekend and into next week,
with daily chances of afternoon storms. VFR conditions are expected
to be present the majority of the time for all terminals, but when
afternoon storms hit, sub-VFR conditions will briefly occur until
they pass. With a moist airmass, nightly patchy fog will also be a
concern, which could cause nightly sub-VFR reductions in
visibility and cigs.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ007-009-010-012-
     015-016-032.
NC...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ001>004-018>020.
WV...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JCB
NEAR TERM...JCB
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...JCB