Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
303 FXUS61 KRNK 281053 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 653 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms possible today. First round possible this morning with a second, more potent round of storms beginning by the afternoon. Damaging winds will be the main threat, with a secondary tornado and hail threat. && .KEY MESSAGES... Key Message 1: Multiple chances for thunderstorms today. Storms have the potential to be strong/severe. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Multiple chances for thunderstorms today. Storms have the potential to be strong/severe. A potent upper shortwave will traverse through the Great Lakes this morning, shifting into New England by this evening. Slight amplification of this wave will occur by the afternoon, and multiple waves of storms will be possible. Current satellite indicates a decaying Mesoscale Convective System over the Tennessee Valley with some renewed development now across the upper Ohio Valley. Guidance has development within this zone continuing over the next few hours, but confidence in this is still rather uncertain given meager coverage of storms ongoing when compared to model simulated reflectivity. Should this area fill in as modeled, it will drop south into the forecast area around daybreak. Severe threat with this should be fairly minimal based on limited instability, however increasing bulk shear could support a few organized bowing segments capable of strong wind gusts. A second round of storms will be possible this afternoon associated with the main frontal passage. Storms this afternoon will be highly dependent on how the morning convection progresses through the area. At the moment, it appears there will at least be some clearing by early afternoon resulting in marginal surface heating within a moist boundary layer yielding MLCAPE around 1000 to 1500 J/kg. Increasing deep layer shear overlapping with favorable instability will likely result in widely scattered storms capable of all severe modes. 0-6 km shear (30-40 knots) is also supportive of supercells, which could produce isolated tornadoes given increasing 0-3 km SRH by mid- afternoon. Supercells and organized multicell line segments will also be capable of severe wind gusts. A localized flash flooding threat also exists within areas of training/repeated rounds of storms. Overall, storms motions should help mitigate the flooding threat today. The front and trough axis moves quickly southeast and out of the forecast area by midnight. Upslope flow may bring a few showers to the mountains overnight, but the severe threat will be over. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR this morning with mostly areas of altostratus moving across from upstream convection over West Virginia. Should see increasing development of storms throughout the morning, shifting south into the area arriving sometime around 8AM - 10AM. Some clearing is expected to occur sometime late morning and into the afternoon with a second round of storms expected to develop in the afternoon/evening. After 22Z or so, most models have storms out of southeast WV, continuing for eastern VA and NC for a few more hours through at least 00z. Improving conditions expected late tonight as storms lessen, with perhaps just some residual upslope showers in West Virginia through midnight. Winds increasing by mid morning to 10 to 15 knots, with gusts up to 25 knots possible by the afternoon, turning from southwesterly to westerly by early afternoon. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Gusty, post frontal winds are expected Wednesday, but VFR. The rest of the week through Friday will also be mainly VFR, outside of any morning fog. Precipitation chances increase again by Saturday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMG AVIATION...BMG