466
FXUS61 KRNK 232318
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
718 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A large area of high pressure will expand across the eastern
United States, bringing hot conditions and light winds to the
region through this week. Chances of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms will increase as the week progresses.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 645 PM EDT Monday...

Heat Index values continue to hover round the 105F mark across
far eastern and southeastern sections of the forecast area. The
current Heat Advisory for today is scheduled to conclude at 800
PM EDT, and this timing still looks on track.

Have made only minor adjustments to the ongoing forecast to
better reflect the latest temperature, dew point, sky cover and
wind speed/gust trends across the region and through the evening
hours.

As of 245 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for hot temperatures and heat index values
increasing even more tomorrow.

2) A Heat Advisory remains in effect today for Southside VA.

3) Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are in effect
Tuesday for areas east of a line from Lexington to Roanoke to
Martinsville to Danbury.

High pressure, surface and aloft, will promote strong
subsidence through Tuesday. So far temperatures have reached the
80s and 90s this afternoon, with dew points in the upper 60s to
mid 70s contributing to heat index values as high as 105 so far
(Appomattox).

A Heat Advisory remains in effect for most of Southside VA as
well as Caswell Co, NC through this evening for heat indices
around 105F. We may see a few very light showers over the
southern Blue Ridge this afternoon, but they will be weak and
short-lived. Temperatures overnight will provide some, but
maybe not enough relief, with low in the mid 70s for the
piedmont, and in the mid 60s to low 70s for the mountains.

The heat wave peaks on Tuesday. High temperatures will reach
the upper 80s to the mid 90s along and west of the Blue Ridge,
while the piedmont will climb well into the 90s and may even
test the century mark. Heat index values could reach up to
107-111F across the piedmont tomorrow afternoon. There is a
possibility it could be lower than this due to cloud cover, but
at this time it appears like it will be mostly cirrus and not as
effective at blocking heat.

With the increasing heat and moisture, orographical lift should
help spark scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms once
again tomorrow afternoon and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1210 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1) The heat wave continues, though a slight dropoff in
temperatures occurs Thursday.

2) Daily afternoon storm chances return mid to late week.

The heatwave continues into the midweek, as high pressure both
at the surface and aloft dominate the synoptic pattern. An
upper low over the far Southeastern US will move northeast
slowly, causing a northeasterly flow aloft, which will advect
some moisture into the area. At the same time, the upper level
ridge finally begins to weaken Wednesday afternoon, which will
allow isolated storms to develop. Exact coverage is uncertain,
as models show a wide range of possibilities depending on how
quickly the upper ridge weakens and the amount of moisture
available. PoPs are kept around 30%, with the best chance of
rain being further south, closer to the upper low. The synoptic
pattern finally changes on Thursday, with the upper high
weakening and the surface high dissolving. The upper low
previously mentioned, moves closer to our area from the south,
which will increase rain chances for the afternoon, to around
40-50%.

Rain totals remain relatively light, due to the lack of moisture
and surface forcing across the area. Generally around
0.10-0.20" is expected north of US-460, with around 0.25" to the
south. Parts of the NC mountains could see up to 0.50".

Temperatures remain around 10-15 degrees above average, with
highs on Wednesday in the upper 80s to upper 90s, reducing
slightly to the mid 80s to mid 90s for Thursday. Lows remain
consistent, in the mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1210 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Afternoon storms are possible each day through the period.

2) Temperatures return closer to normal but still remain above
average.

A surface high in the Atlantic takes back control of the
pattern, which will allow warm/moist air to return to the
region with southerly flow. An upper low continues to meander
across the Deep South, which will allow afternoon showers/storms
to be possible into the weekend. Moisture continues to be
limited aloft, which will keep PoPs around 50% for Friday and
Saturday. The high in the Atlantic extends west across Florida
late Saturday into Sunday, which will further restrict moisture
flow into our area. However, a weak surface trough forms along
the eastern side of the Appalachians, keeping enough lift in the
area for afternoon showers/storms to continue Sunday and into
early next week with PoPs remaining around 50%. By late Monday,
models are indicating a strong cold front and associated upper-
level trough may move into the area by the middle of next week,
further increasing storm chances.

Due to the weakening of the upper-level ridge midweek,
temperatures lower late week, but remain above normal. Highs
are expected to be in the low 80s to low 90s each day, with lows
still very mild, in the mid 60s to low 70s each morning.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

As of 715 PM EDT Monday...

Other than some late night/early morning river valley fog
potentially impacting KLWB, VFR conditions and light winds are
expected for the valid TAF forecast period concluding at 00Z
Wed/8PM EDT Tue. Winds will be generally light and variable or
calm through the period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure will keep VFR conditions through Tuesday. As the
heat builds during the week, the chances of afternoon showers
and thunderstorms will steadily increase. Convection and
possible sub-VFR conditions should be limited in nature during
the middle of the week but could become more notable in coverage
as the week progresses.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM EDT Tuesday for VAZ022>024-
     033-043.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ044>047-058-
     059.
     Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM EDT Tuesday for VAZ034-
     035-044>047-058-059.
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ004-005.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ006.
     Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ006.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/PM
NEAR TERM...DS/SH
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...DS/SH