933
FXUS61 KRNK 161223
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
823 AM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure remains wedged against the eastern face of
the Appalachians, maintaining a light east northeasterly surface
wind. This pattern will fade as the new week begins, and a cold
front shifts southward from the upper Midwest through the Great
Lakes region. This front will stall near the Ohio River Valley
through the early half of next week before shifting southward
across the lower Mid-Atlantic as the second half of the coming
week arrives.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 800 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1. Widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will
develop this afternoon, mainly impacting the mountains north of
Highway 460. Threats of severe storms and heavy rain are very
limited.

2. Patchy dense fog will redevelop tonight, particularly across
the mountains.

Automated weather stations are indicating improving visibilities
as temperatures warm this morning, indicating that fog is
gradually lifting. Once fog burns off this morning, sunshine
intermixed with passing clouds will help temperatures warm to
near normal for mid-August, reaching mainly into the 80s
areawide.

We`ll turn our attention to the development of widely scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms during mid- to late-afternoon,
more so across the mountains, with best coverage occurring north
of Highway 460. This activity is expected to be localized and
progressive, and believe the threat of any severe storms or
heavy rain will be very limited. However, this activity will
persist into the early morning hours of Sunday. Redevelopment of
early morning valley fog will be the only other concern
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

1) Warm and moist conditions continue into next week

The warm and moist weather pattern will dominate the first half
of next week. Ridging extending from the Rockies to the Mid-
Atlantic will keep temperatures on the warmer side. Highs are
expected to be in the 80s with the Piedmont potentially reaching
the lower 90s while lows are expected to be in the mid-60s to
mid-70s areawide. Dew points will be in the mid-60s to lower
70s. While PWATs will increase towards the 1.5-1.75" range,
precipitation chances are on the lower side. Despite the warm
and moist conditions, ensemble models suggest high pressure will
remain to put a dent on any potential widespread precipitation
development. In addition, the air will be relatively dry aloft
and lapse rates may struggle to get above 5.5 C/km during peak
heating. On Monday night, a frontal system from Canada
approaches southward towards the Mid-Atlantic.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

1) Heavy rain possible mid-next week

Erin is projected to become a Major Hurricane (at least
Category 3 out of 5), but is not forecast to make landfall in
the United States. The storm is expected to move northeast and
be pulled into the mean wind flow by an upper level trough by
mid-next week. The storm may be close enough to the coast to
bring some light northerly surface winds. However, there is a
different source of rain that may bring some flooding issues
next week. A frontal system is expected to drift slowly about
the Mid-Atlantic and trigger wide spread showers and
thunderstorms. Given high PWATs in the 1.5-2.0" range, these
storms will have the potential for high rainfall rates and
present a risk for flash flooding. The Weather Prediction Center
has a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall for next Tuesday
through Wednesday evening. Specifics on rainfall amounts will
become clearer by early next week.

Otherwise, the frontal system is forecast to pass southward and
through the region, followed by a surface high pressure system.
The new air mass will likely be at least subtly drier and
cooler, but it is too early to know by what degree.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 745 AM EDT Saturday...

Fog continues to gradually lift this morning as temperatures
warm, however northeasterly windflow has brought a layer of MVFR
stratus to the Piedmont this morning, impacting LYH and DAN.
Passing high clouds may act to prolong the low stratus deck by
shielding it from the sun. Regardless, low clouds are still
forecast to scatter & lift by late morning, making for VFR
conditions by noon.

Localized showers and a few thunderstorms will develop with
afternoon heating across the mountains north of a BLF to ROA
line. Most likely timing will be between 16/19Z and 17/02Z,
though a few showers may linger into early Sunday. Patchy fog
will again be an issue early Sunday morning. Winds will remain
light at around 5 knots or less out of the north/northeast
through the TAF period.

Areas of dense fog will redevelop overnight, more so across the
mountains. LWB and BCB can expect visibilities to fall to 1/4SM
again by 17/09Z.


.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will
redevelop each afternoon and evening into early next week, more
so across the mountains and foothills, as a cold front stalls
somewhere between the Great Lakes and the Ohio River, providing
the focus for this activity. Patchy fog will redevelop each
night, particularly across the mountain river valleys.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...NF