Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
821 FXUS61 KRNK 301758 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 158 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation Forecast Updated. Forecast discussion updated with concern of flooding hazard next week. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Return of thunderstorms next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Return of thunderstorms next week. Enjoy the clear skies while it lasts as rain and thunderstorms are likely to return as early as Saturday night. A mid-level low will pass through the northern Great Plains and swoop southeastward and head towards the Appalachians. The big picture is that this system will likely provide strong southwesterly winds and advect warm and moist air into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. (Dew points may return into the 60s and 70s by the weekend). Model guidance exhibit a robust transport of vorticity through the region for the first half of next week while this low persists. Unfortunately, models then start to disagree on how this low evolves. A possible scenario is the low dips so southward that it decouples itself from the mean flow and remains stagnant over the eastern half of the United States. Another suggested scenario is that part of the low cuts off but has some of its energy pulled away northeast by a stronger trough in Canada. The main concern of this forecast is whether the low decides to detach itself or not. If it does, confidence of several rounds of showers and thunderstorms for our area will increase. While the severe threat looks to be on the lower side due to lapse rates of 5.0-5.5 C/km, there is a flood concern for next week. The Weather Prediction Center has already issued a Marginal Risk for parts of the area on Sunday and Monday, but it is currently too early to know how much rain we may get and what the potential impacts may be. Lastly, because models tend to struggle with cutoff lows and the already present discrepancies, the forecast for the latter half of next week is unclear. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Clear skies and quiet weather for most of the next 24 hours as higher pressure roams over us. KLWB will likely have visibilities reduced down towards half a mile as early morning fog returns Friday. Some model guidance suggests KBCB may see some early morning fog briefly but confidence on this is low. Otherwise all terminals are VFR with clear skies, light winds with occasional gusts of 15-20 kts, and a gradual increase of clouds by 18Z Friday. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Another active weather pattern will bring all airports away from VFR starting Saturday night. A mid-level low pressure system will bring numerous opportunities for rain and thunderstorms through the first half of next week. Severe weather potential looks to be low but wind gusts of 30-40 kts may be possible with these storms and visibilities will be seriously reduced while this storm activity persists. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CG AVIATION...CG