129
FXUS61 KRNK 191750
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
150 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure, both surface and aloft, will build over the area
and intensify through the weekend and into early next week. This
will result in mostly clear skies, slowly warming temperatures,
and dry weather through at least the first half of next week.
Look for low temperatures in the 30s and 40s through early next
week with high temperatures gradually warming into the 60s and
70s over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 145 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

1. Stretch of dry weather with warm daytime highs and chilly
temperatures overnight continues.


The center of the expansive surface high is just to the
west of the forecast area, keeping the local area in light
northeasterly surface flow. The high will remain over the Mid
Atlantic region through tomorrow, with the 500mb ridge also
positioned over the eastern third of the country. Under clear
skies today, expecting temperatures to warm into the 60s and low
70s. A weak upper shortwave dips through the area tonight,
the only impact to the area looks to be a wind shift to the
northwest overnight into Sunday morning, but winds turn back to
the northeast by Sunday afternoon. Slightly higher dewpoints in
the west overnight, so could see some shallow fog in the river
valleys Sunday morning, but any fog that does develop would be
brief and should mix out quickly after sunrise. Models are also
suggesting some low level moisture return off the Atlantic in
eastern VA and NC, but thinking those northwesterly winds will
keep any low clouds or fog out of the Piedmont and Foothills.

Sunday will be a couple degrees warmer than today, with highs in the
upper 60s in the west to low 70s in the east, with another day
of clear skies and ample sunshine. Tonight will again be a night
where the ridges stay warmer than the valleys, and lows also
start to creep a degree or two warmer.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

1. Dry and sunny conditions to continue with above normal temps.

Strong broad ridge of high pressure will remain the dominating
feature for most of the short term and allow for continued benign
conditions. This persistent ridge finally starts to break down on
Wednesday ahead of a quick moving disturbance and cold front. Mostly
clear skies can be expected through Tuesday then perhaps some
increased cloud coverage toward the north later Wednesday.

Above normal highs through the period with many locations having
pleasant temps in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

1. A few disturbances could push across the area but have limited
impact.

The first upper disturbance and translated sfc cold front should
quickly traverse the area late Wednesday into early Thursday along
the NW flow in the southern extent of the longwave trough. Despite
the forcing, this feature looks to be quite moisture starved as is
typical of a fast moving wave from the NW that has little time to
advect moisture in out ahead of it. Only advertising a slight
chance of showers in the far north with this. A second
disturbance is possible across parts of the area on Friday,
though this wave looks rather weak and also potentially lacking
moisture. Guidance has discrepancies in the location and timing
this far out as well.

Expect temps trending closer to near climo norms for much of the end
of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Saturday...

Widespread VFR conditions will persist through the valid TAF period,
ending at 18Z Sunday. Winds will be from the northeast,
generally around 5 knots or less. Winds will shift to the
northwest overnight, but remaining light, before turning back
north/northeasterly by Sunday afternoon. There may be some
passing high clouds along the VA and NC border late this tonight
and overnight, so could see some upper cirrus at KDAN, but
otherwise sky conditions mostly remain clear over the area.

Models hint at low level moisture return off the Atlantic into
eastern VA, but light winds out of the northwest will keep it
away from eastern terminals. Could see some shallow, brief fog
in the river valleys in the west, possibly impacting KLWB and
KBCB, but the airmass still seems too dry for any widespread
fog. All that being said, have opted to not include fog at any
TAF sites for the period, given the low confidence.


Extended Aviation Outlook...

High pressure will keep VFR conditions through most of next
week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...AS/BMG
SHORT TERM...AB
LONG TERM...AB
AVIATION...AS/BMG