005
FXUS61 KRNK 031146
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
646 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring fair but cold weather to the region
today, any lingering clouds over the mountains this morning
giving way to clearing for the afternoon. Thursday features the
passage of a dry cold front, though some passing clouds may dim
the sun at times. A developing area of low pressure to our south
will bring the next chance for measurable precipitation to the
area early Friday, possibly resulting in some light snow
accumulation.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Message:

1) Quiet but cold weather today and tonight.

A building ridge of high pressure is resulting in cold air
advection (CAA) across the forecast area with a solid but
shallow layer of strato-cumulus covering areas west of the Blue
Ridge. This cloud layer is expected to retreat and dissipate
today as winds subside and the CAA diminishes. Overall looking
at fair but colder than normal temperatures with departures
averaging about 4-8 degrees F below the seasonal norm.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is increasing that light snow will impact most of the
area Friday morning.

2) Quiet but chilly start to the weekend expected.

Thursday morning will be mostly quiet across the area, though a few
brief snow showers may be possible in Western Greenbrier County as a
weak cold front moves through. Dry weather will continue for the
rest of Thursday into Thursday night as a surface high over the Ohio
Valley shifts east into the Northeastern US. This high will wedge
down into our area Thursday night into Friday morning, dropping
temperatures to below freezing, likely into the mid to upper 20s. A
low will form along the Gulf Coast and move into the Carolinas on
Friday, with moisture driving up over top of the wedge in place.
While the upper-level pattern will be zonal, it will be cold enough
aloft to support snow across most of the area Friday morning,
beginning as early as 2AM in the NC mountains and spreading
northeast into the rest of the forecast area by daybreak.
Precipitation will initially evaporate but will eventually
moisten up the air enough to see widespread light snow Friday.

Accumulations of around 0.5-1.0" can be expected, with locally
higher amounts in the NC mountains up to 2.0". The majority of the
moisture will remain off to our south and east, as QPF totals will
only be around 0.10-0.20". As WAA occurs late in the day Friday, a
transition to freezing rain/drizzle could occur, with very light
icing possible. Confidence has increased that snow will occur
Friday, but remains low in exact totals and how long precipitation
will last. It should be noted that snow totals have trended up since
yesterday. Once the system moves out Friday night, quiet and dry
weather returns for Saturday through the end of the period.

Temperatures will continue to remain below normal each day. Highs
will be in the 30s/40s, with a few 50s possible in the eastern
Piedmont on Thursday. Friday will see highs in the 30s area-wide,
due to cloud cover and the aforementioned wedge. Saturday will see a
small rebound in temperatures, into the 30s/40s. Overnight lows will
stay consistent, in the 20s to low 30s each morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Uncertainty in the forecast as multiple systems slide through.

2) Another potential mixed precipitation event Sunday night into
Monday.

3) Below normal temperatures persist into next week.

Sunday will be quiet across the area as high pressure will keep
conditions dry. A low pressure system is then expected to develop in
the Great Plains and move into the southern Mid-Atlantic Sunday
night into Monday. Models begin to diverge at this point, showing
varying signs of strength of this low. A strong high pressure over
the Northeastern US will wedge down east of the Appalachians and
provide cold air. If the low remains weak, then a few snow/rain
showers could be possible, but if the low strengthens, then wintry
precipitation, likely in the form of snow would once again occur on
Monday. The low then transitions to a newly developed coastal low
and moves out of the area Monday night. Confidence remains very low
in the forecast until models come into better agreement, but winter
weather remains a possibility for Monday. Beyond that system, a weak
clipper system will swing down from the Great Lakes Tuesday night,
bringing light snow showers to the WV mountains through the end of
the period. Dry weather is expected across the rest of the area for
Tuesday.

Below normal temperatures will continue this weekend into early next
week, with highs in the 30s/40s each day. Lows will generally be in
the 20s each night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 700 AM EST Wednesday...

MVFR to IFR Cigs persist over and west of the Blue Ridge this
morning but associated with little or no surface vsby
restriction. This cloud layer is very shallow and is expected to
retreat and dissipate after 14Z/9AM. Aside from this cloud
element areas east of the mountains were clear.

With daytime improvement expecting widespread VFR this afternoon
and through Wednesday night, winds out of the northwest and
diminishing with time and calm for the overnight.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

A dry cold front is expected to cross the area Thursday with
potential for mid-upper level cloud layers. Low level moisture
may reintroduce some MVFR cigs for the mountains, but associated
with little or no precip or vsby restriction.

For Friday, a storm system to our south will approach the lower
Mid-Atlantic to bring wintry weather and degraded flying
conditions. At this time the primary p-type is expected to be
snow with some light snow accumulation (0.5 - 2.0 inches)
possible for area terminals with potential impact to the Friday
morning push at ROA (onset time between 0400-0700 LST).

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...PM