764
FXUS61 KRNK 131748
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
148 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Dry early in the week, but then increasing heat and humidity
again by later this week and into the weekend.

Aviation updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry conditions through mid-week, with rain chances late
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry conditions through mid-week, with rain
chances late week.

A larger amplitude upper level shortwave trough is currently
progressing across the Great Lakes region today. A cold front in
association with this upper level trough is currently draped
across central Indiana and northern Ohio, and is progged to push
through the region during the overnight hours. Given the timing
of the passage of the front, much of the area will remain dry,
with only light showers possible for upslope locations across
portions of SE West Virginia and SW Virginia. In the wake of
this frontal passage, surface high pressure looks to settle
across PA and NY, which will lead to drying across much of the
area. While temperatures look to continue to remain elevated in
the low to mid 80s across the mountains, and mid to upper 80s in
the Piedmont, dewpoint temperatures look to drop into the mid
50s to low 60s across the area, which will make for much more
comfortable weather across the region through the middle of this
week.

Temperatures remain elevated areawide primarily because upper
level ridging looks to build in late Monday into the region as
the aforementioned upper level shortwave ejects east of the
area. Overall, the area looks to remain dry for much of the
week, with a gradual return of surface dewpoints back into the
low to mid 60s by Friday. Embedded upper level shortwave
disturbances rounding the top of the upper level trough looks to
bring low rain chances back into the forecast by Thursday for
primarily mountain locations. The aforementioned upper level
ridge looks to possibly break down by next weekend, with no
significant rain chances expected prior to this.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VFR conditions are primarily being observed across the area;
however, a scattered to broken cloud deck at around 2500 feet
across mountain locations has lead to some MVFR restrictions at
BLF. These restrictions should lift to VFR over the next few
hours as the cloud deck becomes more scattered in nature through
the remainder of the day. As a cold front progresses through the
area tonight, low stratus looks again possible for mountain
terminals, with some patchy valley fog developing at trouble
sites like LWB. These MVFR to IFR restrictions look to lift
early on Monday morning as drier air pushes into the region from
the northwest.

Winds will predominantly remain out of the west/northwest at
around 10 knots or less through much of the TAF period, with
northerly/northeasterly flow developing at LYH, DAN, and ROA
during the early morning hours on Monday as high pressure
settles north of the region.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Mainly VFR expected through midweek, outside of any late night
fog at the usual places like LWB/BCB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EB
AVIATION...EB, BMG