Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
655 FXUS61 KRNK 040039 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 739 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather will continue for most of the upcoming week. A frontal system this coming weekend will provide the next widespread chance of rainfall. Near to above normal temperatures are expected. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 730 PM EST Monday... Key Message: 1) No weather hazards this period. There are gusty WNW winds in the wake of the departing coastal storm otherwise not much going on. Even the wind should diminish to some degree overnight as the valleys decouple, but ridges should continue to blow freely through the night. Per the evening sounding, winds at the base of the subsidence inversion at 850 mb were around 35 kts, so some respectable gusts are possible across the higher elevations overnight. Made some adjustments to the dewpoints...lowering them about 4 degrees below model forecast. As long as there is mixing, the dry air from the subsidence level will get drawn to the surface from aloft. This should be especially true for Tuesday, leading to a dry afternoon with Rh minimums in the 20-30% range. Any cloud cover overnight should be limited to the western slopes. The HREF suggests a scattered layer between 2-3kft AGL persisting through the overnight along the VA/WV border and across the western Highlands near Mt. Rogers and into the NW NC High Country. After sunrise, the low level moisture goes away and then replaced by scattered jet induced clouds above 25KFT with indication that it may be in the form of standing wave cirrus which may get anchored lee of the mountains Tuesday afternoon. For now will keep cloud coverage no more than scattered... so going forecast is for mostly clear skies tonight and mostly sunny skies for Tuesday. With respect to temperatures, looking at lows in the 30s for most areas tonight, and mid 50s to mid 60s for highs Tuesday...all of which is near seasonal for early November. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 100 PM EST Monday... Key Messages: 1. Gusty winds through Wednesday. 2. Dry weather for most, slight chance for isolated showers in SE WV late Wednesday. 3. Temperatures trending to above normal. A broad area of high pressure will be centered over the southern Mid Atlantic and southeastern US by Wednesday, with westerly prevailing flow aloft. A large 500mb trough will amplify as it moves across the Great Lakes and northern Mid Atlantic through the middle of the work week. The surface low will bring a cold front through the region late Wednesday night into Thursday as it moves in a similar path as the associated upper trough. Plenty of dry air over the area will keep precipitation chances confined to parts of southeast WV, mainly western Greenbrier County, where there may be just enough moisture advected from the Great Lakes to produce isolated upslope showers in that area. However, rain accumulations, if any, will be light at best, less than a 10% probability of 24 hour rainfall accumulations exceeding 0.1" in far western Greenbrier. The main impact from this system will be strong, gusty winds, as most areas along and west of the Blue Ridge have at least a 25% probability of gusts exceeding 30 mph, and some parts of Greenbrier County have a 40% probability of wind gusts greater than 40 mph. Another surface high builds into the area from the west following the frontal passage, and winds will relax Thursday morning. Temperatures trend warmer than normal by Wednesday, with strong southwesterly flow, highs in the low to mid 60s in the west to low 70s in the east. Highs Thursday will be closer to normal, in the mid to upper 50s in the west and mid 60s in the east. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s each night, but warmer Wednesday night/Thursday morning. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of Noon EST Monday... Key Messages: 1. Above normal temperatures through the weekend. 2. Strong cold front early next week to bring a chance of mountain snow and much colder temperatures. High pressure will shift east into the Atlantic by Friday with increasing southerly flow in advance of an approaching front from the west. This will result in warm temperatures on Friday that are well above normal. Some variation in rainfall coverage on Friday night with the passage of the front, but overall the timing of the frontal passage seems to be late Friday and into early Saturday. Flow behind the front will remain westerly on Saturday and the airmass still remains relatively warm. Expecting dry and breezy conditions. Southwest flow increases again as a deep trough begins to amplify across the Great Plains on Sunday. Guidance has been consistent in showing a strong system impacting the region Sunday and Monday, but still struggling a bit with timing and precipitation amounts. However, most guidance does indicate a very strong cold front will move through by Monday, bringing with it a sharp drop in temperatures and the first widespread chance of upslope snow for the western mountains. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 730 PM EST Monday... Scattered low clouds along the western slopes of the Appalachian Divide vcnty of LWB/BLF/TNB...cloud bases 2-3kft. Aside for this cloud element, skies were clear. Westerly winds will be gusty through the overnight along the ridgetops...speeds 8-12kts with gusts 15 to 20 kts. Lower valleys and piedmont should see winds diminish. Expecting widespread VFR for Tuesday. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... VFR likely throughout the week. Gusty winds possible again by Wednesday associated with a dry frontal passage. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SH/WP NEAR TERM...PM SHORT TERM...AS LONG TERM...BMG AVIATION...PM