973
FXUS61 KRNK 031736
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
136 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region today with dry
weather expected for the upcoming Holiday weekend. Little or no
additional rain is forecast until next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 115 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Generally dry and fair through Independence Day.

Stalled boundary remains to the southeast of the forecast area
draped across the Carolinas. Surface high pressure will
gradually build in through tonight and tomorrow as an upper wave
over New England depart east.

Mostly sunny skies with just some passing CU through the
afternoon and early evening. May have just enough lift for a few
light showers across the Piedmont region, so have added in a
brief period of showers/drizzle through early evening. Otherwise
expecting dry conditions through tonight and tomorrow as high
pressure continues to build overhead.

Temperatures near normal with lower dew points should provide a
problem free Independence Day in the weather department.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

1) Relatively quiet weather period thanks to wedged surface high

A large surface high pressure system will make its way eastward and
into the Atlantic the next few days. A portion of this system will
get wedged into the mountains and keep skies mostly clear for a
majority of the forecast area. This wedged system will also be
squished between an approaching frontal boundary and a storm
disturbance off eastern Florida.

The Floridian disturbance currently only has a 60% chance of
developing into a tropical storm within the next 7 days. Whether
it forms or not, its projected path is expected to be along the
Carolina coast. Potential impacts to our region are forecast to
be trivial. The system may be close enough to cause easterly
wind gusts up to 15 mph in the North Carolina counties and
Southside Virginia and provide a brief chance of precipitation
for this region. The system could still travel more towards the
ocean or inland so confidence in this part of the forecast will
grow as we head into the weekend.

Temperatures will continue to be on the warmer side with regional
highs in the 80s, except at higher elevations. There is a bit of
model disagreement on how dew points will fluctuate, particularly
due to the surface high`s wedge, but a safe bet is values will be in
the 60s, generally speaking.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Hot and muggy next week

2) Multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms next week

The disturbance off of Florida is expected to be absorbed by the
main 500mb flow and head northeast early next week. A frontal system
looks to stall in the area but it is still not entirely clear
whether it passes through or retreats north later next week. This
boundary layer, combined with plenty of surface heating and
moisture, will provide opportunity for daily afternoon convective
thunderstorms. High temperatures may reach into the 80s and 90s
and the heat index could potentially get to 100 for the
Piedmont region around Monday and Tuesday. Dew points are
expected to climb back up and bring muggy conditions with values
in the 60s and lower 70s.

An upper level ridge will form over Florida mid-next week and zonal
winds aloft will bring shortwaves towards the Mid-Atlantic. Model
guidance suggests a more potent shortwave to arrive late next week
when widespread precipitation would be the highest. The Storm
Prediction Center mentioned a potential MCS forming across
the Great Plains but there is too much uncertainty on the upper
level pattern to know where this system could go if it forms. This
will be monitored in future forecasts.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 115 PM EDT Thursday...

May see fog at LWB again early Friday morning, with perhaps some
patchy fog here and there in other river valleys as well.
Outside of that, expecting mostly sunny skies and widespread
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR conditions are expected outside of morning valley fog
through early next week. May see some isolated to scattered
storms Sunday into Monday but low confidence on aviation
terminal impacts.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...BMG