707
FXUS61 KRNK 201053
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
653 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will shift from the Ohio Valley into the central
Appalachians today, before weakening. Hurricane Erin will stay
east of the North Carolina coast through Thursday moving further
out to sea Friday. A stronger front moves through Sunday into
Monday, with much drier and cooler weather expected for next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 210 AM EDT Wednesday...

1) Front to bring storm chances mainly to the mountains this
afternoon/evening. Locally heavy rainfall possible.

A front lined up from Ohio to the mid MS Valley will track east
today with moisture advection increasing, but the front will
also slow down due to influence of Erin offshore into Thursday,
with a subsidence zone in between. Based on this, models in
pretty good agreement with respect to coverage of
showers/storms this afternoon staying generally along and west
of the Blue Ridge, with some bleedover possible through the
foothills by evening. PWATS running 1.2 to 1.4" this morning
will increase to 1.5 to 1.8" by this evening. Flow aloft is
fairly weak so any storms that form will be slow movers and
could bring potential localized flooding in the mountains.

Probabilities for measurable rainfall are 50-70 percent in the
mountains to 10-20% east of the mountains.

With wedge dissipating, and approach of front, warmer air and
sunshine will send temperatures higher today compared to Tuesday
mainly east of the mountains. Looking at upper 80s, possibly 90
in the Piedmont, falling back to the lower to mid 80s in the
mountains, with some 70ds in the higher terrain, as clouds move
in with the front/storms this afternoon.

Tonight, showers/storms start to fade, while Erin tracks to east
of the Outer Banks. No big impacts from Erin for us except
subsidence drying in the Piedmont. No change in airmass with
dewpoints staying in the mid 60s west to around 70 east, which
will be close to the lows Thu morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 208 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Hurricane Erin to bring a breeze east of the Blue Ridge.

2) Daily afternoon storm pattern continues into the weekend.

Hurricane Erin will be to our east by Thursday and be close enough
to bring an increase in winds, to areas east of the Blue Ridge.
As Erin moves northeast, it will interact with mid- latitude
air and extend its wind field in spite of its location in the
Atlantic. While the entire region will have northerly winds, the
strongest winds will be east of the Blue Ridge with gusts up to
20-25 mph possible. Winds will subside by Friday when Erin is
away from the Mid-Atlantic.

Erin`s spin will force a relatively weak cold front south through
the region, bringing a small dip in the air and dew points
temperatures. Regionwide temperatures are expected to be in the 60s
and high temperatures will likely be in the lower 70s to lower 80s.
This front will trigger a round of thunderstorms on Thursday
afternoon. Upper level winds are likely to be northerly to
northwesterly which will give the highest precipitation chances to
areas along and west of the Blue Ridge. The subsidence region of
Erin may dock the precipitation chances closer to the Piedmont for
Thursday. Friday precipitation chances will be focused moreso in the
mountains of NC and southwest VA where the air will be little more
unstable compared to the rest of the area. Relatively higher
pressure after the Erin related cold front will also put a lid on
precipitation chances towards central VA. Another round of afternoon
showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday for most of
the area due to increased instability. With PWATs forecast to be
between 1.25-1.50", heavy rain will likely accompany these storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 208 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Cold front to bring additional precipitation Sunday.

2) Cooler and drier air to move in for next week.

A large upper level trough over Canada will move eastward and drag a
long cold front across most of the United States this weekend. This
front will arrive by Sunday and trigger another round of showers and
thunderstorms into the afternoon and evening. Shear will actually
accompany these storms but the severe risk is very low due to the
lack of instability. As the front punches through, winds will pick
up from the northwest and conditions will get gusty between 15-20
mph for areas along and west of the Blue Ridge. Ridge tops may have
gusts between 25-30 mph due to higher winds at 850 mb. A large
surface high pressure system follows the front and stretches from
the Great Plains to the east coast. This air mass will be
considerably drier and cooler. Dew points are forecast to drop as
low as the upper 40s to mid 50s and PWATs are likely to tank to
around 0.33-0.67". Low temperatures will be in the lower 50s to
lower 60s and highs will be in the mid-60s to mid-70s. Because of
the winds, early morning wind chills values at higher elevations may
get into the lower 40s. With the high pressure and drier air, the
chances of precipitation will remain low for most of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 650 AM EDT Wednesday...

NOTE: Due to lack of transmission of observations from LWB, the
TAF will be NIL, until transmission of observations occurs.

Variance in sky cover/cigs this morning with BCB/BLF/DAN all VFR
but lower cigs nearby at BCB/DAN, with MVFR at ROA and LIFR at
LYH. Should see all sites at times sub-VFR til 14z, then VFR.

A front approaches today with best coverage of storms along/west
of the Blue Ridge but still not enough confidence to have more
than VCTS at BCB/BLF in the 18-00z time frame. Any storms may
create sub-VFR cigs/vsbys, otherwise VFR. Winds overall stay
light.

This evening, should see showers dissipate toward end of the taf
period with cigs mainly in the mountains should drop to MVFR,
then all sites should drop to IFR or lower with either
vsbys/cigs overnight, though higher confidence where it rains
and in the mountains.

Confidence in the above forecast is high on sub-VFR this morning
but lower on fog and how low cigs could drop. Confidence on
thunderstorms is average.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

As the cold front moves through the area Thursday, rain
chances remain elevated, particularly west of the Blue Ridge.
Any convection will temporarily bring sub-VFR flight conditions
when impacting a terminal. Hurricane Erin will remain offshore
with no direct impacts to most of the area, though a slight
increase in winds is expected Thursday with northeasterly gusts
up to 20 knots possible mainly east of LYH/DAN. Erin quickly
moves away, with afternoon storm chances possible each day
through the weekend. Friday will see less coverage of storms,
with mostly VFR conditions area- wide, though the southern Blue
Ridge will continue to see the best storm chances. Some patchy
overnight fog will also be possible each night, which would
bring sub-VFR flight conditions. Aside from any fog and
scattered storm chances, VFR conditions are expected to prevail.
Quieter conditions look to arrive early next week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JCB/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...EB/WP