779
FXUS61 KRNK 221555
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1055 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty northwest winds and mountain snow showers will continue
through tonight and into Saturday morning. The wind and snow
showers should eventually fade by Saturday night with drier and
milder conditions expected for Sunday and Monday. The next
chance of rain may arrive on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1055 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for upslope snow showers to continue
through tonight.

2) Gusty northwest winds will occur this afternoon and tonight.

No changes to the headlines have been made for this update.
Another lobe of vorticity will pass aloft in association with
a deep upper level low this afternoon. There will be a drastic
increase in winds in the wake of this feature as the 850 mb jet
strengthens to near 60 kt, which will result in surface winds
gusting up to 50 mph along the higher elevations.

In addition, the lobe of vorticity will reinforce upslope snow
showers across the higher elevations from Boone to Lewisburg.
The highest accumulations will occur in western Greenbrier
County. Snow showers and flurries may extend further east
towards the Interstate 81 corridor in southwest Virginia but
with considerably lower accumulations. The gusty winds,
substantial cloud cover, and snow showers should keep
temperatures below normal with highs in the 30s for the
mountains and low to mid 40s for the Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

1. Cool and breezy Saturday, warming temperatures through the
period.
2. Next chance for precipitation comes Monday/early Tuesday.

The deep upper low responsible for the few days of upslope snow
showers and well below normal temperatures will shift farther
eastward into the Atlantic coast off New England through the
weekend. As the low, along with its dynamics and stronger
northwesterly flow, upslope snow showers will slowly come to an
end for the western counties of the forecast area, maybe a few
lingering flurries in western Greenbrier WV by Saturday night,
but not expecting much elsewhere. Winds will still be breezy,
though not as a strong as the past few days, with surface high
pressure building back into the region from the southeastern
states. 500mb flow will flatten into Sunday morning, then slight
ridging into Monday. Therefore, temperatures will start on a
warming trend Sunday into the beginning of the work week.

An upper trough dips into the northern Plains late in the
weekend, and tracks into the Great Lakes early in the work
week. The associated surface low and attendant cold front will
reach the central Appalachians Monday night. Timing of the onset
of precipitation looks to be Monday afternoon, with the
majority of the precipitation falling during the overnight hours
into Tuesday morning. Most of this precipitation will likely be
liquid, given the above freezing temperatures from the surface
through about 850mb per forecast soundings. NBM probabilities
for snow during this event are less than 5% at this time.

Temperatures will start the weekend a few degrees below normal
in the east, to 10 to 15 degrees below normal in the west
Saturday. With mostly clear skies and increasing 500mb heights,
Sunday and Monday will be warmer, with highs in the low to mid
50s in the west and low 60s in the east Sunday, and upper 50s to
mid to upper 60s in the east by Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

1. Showers early Tuesday with warmer than normal temperatures.
2. Near normal temperatures for Thanksgiving, with increasing
probabilities for precipitation.

With the approach and subsequent passage of the next cold front
through the area, showers will be ongoing at the start of the
long term forecast period, but diminishing by later in the day,
with some showers lingering in the west by Tuesday afternoon.
Winds will increase and become gusty Tuesday, as 850mb winds
increase to 45 knots, along with steep pressure rises behind the
front, though should relax by Wednesday.

Another upper wave approaches the area Wednesday into Thursday,
this time from the central/southern Plains, and so
probabilities are increasing for precipitation falling during
the Thanksgiving holiday. Some of the highest elevations may see
some snow mix in with the rain, but most of the precipitation
looks to be rain at this time. Details on timing and amounts are
uncertain, but it is still not too early to be reviewing travel
plans and being cognizant of potential hazardous travel
conditions.

A quick mention on the forecast beyond the long term. An active
weather pattern looks to be shaping up for the weekend after
Thanksgiving, with below normal temperatures and high winds
possible, as a deepening trough passes through the eastern US.
Though confidence is low on specifics this far out, confidence is
increasing for weather impacts during one of the busiest travel
weekends of the entire year. Stay tuned to the local forecast as
details come into better focus during the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 100 AM EST Friday...

Mainly VFR east of the Blue Ridge and MVFR west of the Blue
Ridge. Some occasional periods of IFR in heavier snow bands to
continue for the far western mountains from JFZ to BLF and LWB
through much of today, and especially tonight. A secondary push
of snow arrives tonight for the mountains, along with an
increasing low level jet leading to gusty winds above 30kts at
times for the entire region. Some gusts nearing 45kts in the
higher elevations.

Low vsby and cigs for BLF/LWB tonight as snow increases in
coverage and intensity.

Further east to BCB and ROA, MVFR cigs at times from increasing
upslope stratus. VFR through the period for DAN and LYH.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Aviation conditions improve Sunday into Monday. Our next
weather system, and chance of some sub- VFR conditions across
the mountains, arrives on Tuesday.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
As of 1055 AM EST Friday...

KFCX continues to be down for maintenance and repairs. In the
meantime, please use the following surrounding radars: KRLX
(Charleston, WV), KLWX (Sterling, VA), KAKQ (Wakefield VA), KRAH
(Raleigh, NC), KGSP (Greenville- Spartanburg SC), and KMRX
(Morristown TN).

Observations from the KBLF ASOS are not available due to a FAA
communications circuit outage. Technicians are currently
working to restore service.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for VAZ015.
     Wind Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for VAZ007-009.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for NCZ001-018.
     Wind Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for NCZ001-002-018.
WV...Wind Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for WVZ042>044-507-508.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for WVZ042>044-
     507.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for WVZ508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...BMG/PW
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...BMG
EQUIPMENT...PW