978
FXUS61 KRNK 200039
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
839 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A high pressure wedge will keep drier air and cooler temperatures in
place this afternoon, though isolated showers/storms are possible in
the NC mountains. Better rain chances return tomorrow and each day
through Sunday, despite Hurricane Erin remaining offshore of the
Carolinas and moving away late week. Best chances for rainfall
will be along/west of the Blue Ridge. A cold front moves through
Sunday into Monday, with much drier and cooler weather expected
for next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 830 PM EDT Tuesday...

No changes were made to the forecast this evening. Low clouds
from the wedge that retreated earlier from higher terrain
locations has started to slowly move back over these areas
tonight. Expect low clouds to continue to overtake the remainder
of the region with clear skies overnight, with some fog also
expected to develop towards the early morning hours.


Previous Discussion:

Key Messages:

1) Mostly quiet today, isolated showers/storms possible in the
NC mountains.

2) A front moves in from the west tomorrow, with rain chances
increasing along/west of Blue Ridge.

3) Temperatures stay below normal today, but return to above normal
for Wednesday.

Cloudy skies are finally beginning to break up this afternoon,
particularly west of the Blue Ridge. Some clouds will remain
due to a weak high pressure wedge across the area. Eventually,
skies will become partly cloudy later this afternoon. The heavy
cloud cover, along with the wedge will keep temperatures below
average today, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s area-wide.
The western mountains will see the warmest temperatures, thanks
to clearing out earlier today. Drier air aloft behind the front
that is draped to our south in the Carolinas will suppress most
convection, with only a few isolated showers/storms possible
with diurnal heating and some clearing skies late this
afternoon. Most areas remain dry, though the NC mountains will
see the best chance for isolated convection, as upslope flow
and more moisture resides there with being closer to the front.
Any convection will be short lived and die off after sunset.
Light overnight winds, along with initial mostly clear skies
will allow for radiational cooling to occur, which will lead to
patchy dense fog Wednesday morning. Overnight lows will be in
the 60s.

Clouds increase again by morning, with dreary conditions similar
to this morning. However, the wedge erodes which leads to
clearing skies by midday and temperatures to quickly rise into
the 80s area-wide, with upper 80s for the Piedmont. Winds
slightly increase tomorrow afternoon with a subtle influence
from Hurricane Erin, with gusts of 10-15 mph possible for the
eastern Piedmont. Rain chances also increase tomorrow, but not
due to Erin, but instead from an approaching cold front from the
west in association with an upper level trough. Areas
along/west of the Blue Ridge will see scattered showers/storms
in the afternoon, with the best chances in WV. Severe weather is
not currently anticipated. Storms continue into the evening
before slowly dissipating overnight.

Rain totals remain light, generally under 0.25" on average, with
little to no rain across the Piedmont. The NC mountains could
see around 0.50", with up to 1.00" possible in the strongest
convection. There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for
the NC mountains this afternoon and evening, and for everywhere west
of the Blue Ridge tomorrow due to the approaching cold front.
Isolated flash flooding will be possible in flood prone, urban,
and low-lying areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane Erin passes by Carolina coastline Thursday. Dangerous
beach conditions expected. No major impacts locally.

2. Lingering showers Wednesday night into Thursday morning, mostly
for the mountains. Showers for NW NC Friday. Otherwise, dry for most.

3. Near normal temperatures through Thursday, around 5 to possibly
10 degrees cooler Friday.


The main story through this forecast period is Hurricane Erin,
currently in the Atlantic northeast of the Bahamas. At this time,
Eric is forecast to travel north/northwestward today and tomorrow,
beginning its turn to the northeast by Thursday morning. Though Erin
is not forecast to make landfall in the US, it will pass close to
the Carolina coast, and will remain large enough to bring
significant impacts to the beaches along North Carolina and
southeast Virginia, but no major impacts are anticipated to the
Blacksburg forecast area, aside from wind gusts in the 15 to 20 mph
range in the Piedmont. If traveling to these areas within the next
couple of days, pay close attention to the local National Weather
Service forecast office for your destination, and heed all guidance
from local officials. Offshore hurricanes, especially one of this
size, will bring dangerous surf and rip currents, and storm surge
flooding. Please see the forecast from the local weather forecast
offices for the affected coasts and the National Hurricane Center
for specific details and preparedness tips.

Looking locally, a cold front will be reaching the area Wednesday
night, and will get pulled southward by Erin through Thursday.
Atmospheric moisture in the area will be plentiful, as easterly
winds to the north of Erin brings in moisture from the Atlantic, and
as the cold front from the west draws some in as well. Showers and
thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of this forecast period,
but activity will decrease through the evening hours as daytime
heating and instability is lost. However, given the stronger forcing
provided by the front itself, could see convection lasting later
into the night. Easterly flow will keep low stratus in the area
overnight into Thursday morning, and subsidence around Erin`s
circulation will limit precipitation for most areas, only mainly
upslope showers may linger along and west of the mountains behind
the front. With the front eventually stalling across the southeast,
some moisture will continue to pool along it, and showers and
thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon, though the drier
airmass north of the Carolinas will limit the coverage of
precipitation to mainly the northeast NC mountains.

As Erin tracks farther north and east, winds will turn
northeasterly, and will bring cooler and drier air to the area, so
temperatures will be cooler on Friday, around 3 to 5 degrees, but
possibly up to 10 degrees, cooler than normal for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1. Frontal passage Sunday will bring increased chances for showers
and storms Sunday.

2. Drier and cooler temperatures for the beginning of the work week.


By the weekend, broad ridging at 500mb will develop over the eastern
and southeastern US, while a trough starts to dig southward over the
northern Plains. The local area will still be under a drier and
cooler airmass, so temperatures Saturday will remain a few degrees
cooler, similar to Friday. A cold front associated with the
deepening trough will swing through the region Sunday and Monday. As
the front approaches, expect moisture to increase over the area
again, and pre-frontal showers and possible thunderstorms to develop
Sunday afternoon. The front exits the area to the east Monday, which
will bring an end to the showers and storms. With another cooler and
drier airmass following behind this front, temperatures will fall 5
to 10 degrees cooler than normal. Highs will only reach the upper
70s east of the Blue Ridge, and upper 60s to low 70s in the west.
Overnight lows will also be cooler, and feel much cooler than recent
days, as dewpoints drop into the 50s to low 60s, giving a reprieve
from those muggy overnight conditions of recent days. Some cold air
advection and pressure rises behind the front will result in some
gusty winds Monday, in the 15 to 20 mph range, mainly along and west
of the Blue Ridge. Winds will predominantly be out of the
east/northeast throughout the TAF period, with speeds remaining
in the 5-10 knots range. Gusts look to increase beyond this
period, especially in the Piedmont.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 700 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions look to linger through the remainder of the
evening; however, by the 06z timeframe, MVFR to LIFR CIGs and
VSBYs are expected to develop at nearly all terminals once again
as wedging conditions linger through Wednesday. These
restrictions are expected to linger through the mid morning
hours on Wednesday for nearly all terminals, with CIGs down
below 500ft, and VSBYs near 2sm or less for all or part of the
timeframe between 06-15z for all terminals.

With a frontal boundary approaching from the NW during the
afternoon, clouds should break across the area by the 14-15z
timeframe as mixing helps erode the wedge across the area. The
frontal boundary is expected to bring shower and thunderstorm
chances to BLF, LWB, and BCB Wednesday afternoon and evening,
with chances for showers and thunderstorms expected to decrease
for terminals further east. Isolated chances of showers and
thunderstorms for LYH, DAN, and ROA are expected; however,
chances are not high enough to include in a TAF line at this
time.

Confidence in the above forecast is moderate.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

As the cold front moves through the area Wednesday night into
Thursday, rain chances remain elevated, particularly west of the
Blue Ridge. Any convection will temporarily bring sub-VFR flight
conditions when impacting a terminal. Hurricane Erin will remain
offshore with no direct impacts to most of the area, though a slight
increase in winds is expected Thursday with northeasterly gusts up
to 20 knots possible. Erin quickly moves away, with afternoon storm
chances possible each day through the weekend. Friday will see
less coverage of storms, with mostly VFR conditions area-wide,
though the southern Blue Ridge will continue to see the best storm
chances. Some patchy overnight fog will also be possible each
night, which would bring sub-VFR flight conditions. Aside from
any fog and scattered storm chances, VFR conditions are expected
to prevail. Quieter conditions look to arrive early next week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JCB
NEAR TERM...EB/JCB
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...EB/JCB