894
FXUS61 KRNK 041737
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
137 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will keep the weather mostly and quiet through the
holiday weekend. Chances for showers and thunderstorms return
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1. A mostly dry Fourth of July holiday. Isolated showers
possible in the Alleghany Highlands this afternoon.

2. Near to just above normal temperatures.

Scattered cumulus clouds have been developing along and west of the
Blue Ridge already today. An upper shortwave is forecast to cross
the area this afternoon, and with some level convergence along
the Blue Ridge, could see some isolated light showers develop in
the Alleghany Highlands this afternoon and evening. Otherwise,
with surface high pressure and subsidence, most of the area will
remain dry with mostly sunny skies through the remainder of the
holiday. Highs today will range from near normal to about 6
degrees above normal across the area, in the 80s to around 90.
Patchy fog is possible tomorrow morning, especially in the river
valleys and around the Alleghany Highlands, as the atmosphere
decouples and an inversion sets in. Fog should dissipate fairly
quickly after sunrise tomorrow with daytime heating and mixing,
most likely by 9am or so.

Saturday looks to be another dry day, as high pressure and a dry
airmass remains overhead. Will likely see clouds develop by the
afternoon again, and high temperatures similar to today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

1) Disturbance off Floridian coast to potentially impact
southeastern portion of the region.

The main takeaway with this part of the forecast is the tropical
disturbance off the eastern coast of Florida is projected to go
inland and travel northeast through the states of North Carolina and
eastern Virginia. Hurricane Hunters are planning to investigate the
storm system further which will assist in understanding its
potential strength and movement. The NHC has a 70% chance of this
system developing into a tropical storm within the next 2 days. Even
if this system was to become a tropical storm, it would quickly lose
strength once it hits the mainland. Current hurricane model guidance
suggests the storm may be inland enough to affect areas east of the
Blue Ridge, especially in the NC Piedmont and Southside VA. The
overall impact of this system looks to be minimal as winds will
become easterly and shift to northwesterly as the system passes with
wind gusts only up to 15 mph. Precipitation accumulation looks to be
up to 0.25" but confidence in this part of the forecast is currently
weak given the uncertainty of the storm`s projected path.

Otherwise, dew points will begin to rise into the 60s and 70s
regionwide and high temperatures will be in the mid-70s to mid-80s
as a frontal system approaches from the northwest. The heat index is
expected to be below Heat Advisory criteria but will be close to 90
degrees for areas east of the Blue Ridge.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

1) Multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms next week.

An approaching frontal system will stall over the Mid-Atlantic mid-
next week to provide a boundary for storm initiation. Meanwhile,
two upper level ridges form over the southwestern CONUS and southern
coastal CONUS. While the southwestern ridge will do more of the
heavy lifting, these systems will bring relatively zonal winds to
the area and direct shortwaves from the Great Plains and through the
Mid-Atlantic. Several shortwaves are expected next week and with the
boundary front, as well as moist and hot conditions, daily showers
and thunderstorms are expected to make a return to the region. While
diurnal heating will provide plenty of CAPE, Thursday afternoon
looks to be the only day to have enough shear for severe storm
potential. Machine Learning model guidance also suggests the highest
likelihood for severe weather will be during the latter half of next
week. PWATs are forecast to be between 1.25-1.75" which is a little
higher than this time of year, so repeated showers also raise a
concern for flooding. Confidence on flood and severe potential is
currently low due how far out these events are.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Friday...

Overall, VFR conditions will prevail for all TAF sites through the
current TAF period, ending at 18Z Saturday. Low level cumulus has
already been popping up along and west of the Blue Ridge so far
today, and may see a few isolated showers across the Alleghany
Highlands this afternoon/evening, but doesn`t look to directly
impact area terminals at this time. Winds today will be 5 to 10
knots or so, and generally from the northeast to east in the
Piedmont and Southside VA, more northerly over WV. Expect winds to
turn more easterly and then southeasterly during Saturday, as high
pressure moves offshore. Patchy fog could develop over the river
valleys, and in the Alleghany Highlands region if they receive rain
today, for a few hours Saturday morning, but will dissipate by 13Z
or so.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR conditions are expected outside of morning valley fog
through early next week. May see some isolated to scattered
storms Sunday into Monday with chances increasing into the
middle of next week..

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AS/WP
NEAR TERM...AS
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...AS/WP