Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
345 FXUS61 KRNK 101838 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 238 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Moderate to heavy rain looks more likely to occur for much of the area tomorrow afternoon and evening, and again Saturday and Saturday evening before ending late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. Aviation forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showery and stormy pattern continues through Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Showery and stormy pattern continues through Saturday night. Bermuda high pressure continues to weaken over the Mid Atlantic region today and through the weekend. This opens the door for a more active pattern of weather including numerous chances for showers and thunderstorms as mid level troughing dips into the area from the north. A cold front was situated over the OH Valley and continued to shift slowly south. A swath of mid level energy was helping to trigger numerous showers across KY, WV, and parts of northern VA. Some of this activity will reach the mountains of SW VA this afternoon and into the overnight hours, however the better forcing for ascent still remains to our north for the afternoon. CAMs show repeated rounds of rain develop and move east ahead of and along the front which will essentially stall near or just north of the WV/VA border overnight. Expecting most of the heavier rainfall to be just north of our forecast area, but repeated moderate rainfall may occur over the Greenbrier Valley and perhaps part of the southern Shenandoah Valley along the front where moisture convergence will be maximized. These are the most likely spots for any flooding issues through the overnight hours. Overall the severe threat looks low and we remain in a Marginal Risk per SPC, with damaging winds the main concern with any stronger cells. The front will continue to slowly move south through the forecast area tomorrow before stalling in the Carolinas. Expect heavier and more concentrated activity near and along the Blue Ridge with the front in the area tomorrow afternoon and evening. We should see higher rainfall rates and an increased chance for training storms possibly leading to urban and flash flooding. With so much cloud cover, only weaker storms are expected. A large batch of rain is in store for Saturday afternoon and evening areawide, as a southern stream short wave approaches and lifts the front north. Most of this activity should shift east of the area by midnight. Again we will mainly be concerned with a flooding threat, especially where we receive higher rainfall amounts tonight and tomorrow. Sunday through Tuesday look quieter with mostly dry weather, and this quiet stretch may even last longer than that. We will see a similar set up with a slow-moving, strung out front to our north for mid week into the end of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A cold front over the OH Valley will approach the area from the north and northwest overnight and through Friday. Rounds of showers this afternoon into tomorrow morning will mainly impact BLF and LWB with sub-VFR conditions, and possibly briefly at our mountain terminals including BCB, ROA, and LYH. All terminals will see more activity beginning tomorrow afternoon and evening. Have included SHRA/TSRA where and when rain chances were highest. Widespread fog and/or stratus is expected overnight and tomorrow morning with the front in the area. Some of the stratus and fog will be LIFR to IFR mainly for the mountains. Westerly winds will gradually veer to the NW tomorrow morning as the front moves through. This will happen first in the mountains, spreading to the Piedmont tomorrow afternoon and evening. Gusts have been in the 15 to 25 kt range this afternoon, and these to diminish overnight to less than 10 kts. Tomorrow, expect light and variable winds, with more of an easterly component for the Piedmont in the afternoon. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Expect more showers and storms developing Saturday and Saturday night as the front lifts through as a warm front. Most of the rain should end by 13/03Z or very early Sunday morning. Widespread sub-VFR conditions in periods of moderate to heavy rain, stratus, and some fog are expected with the system. Winds may be gusty and erratic near thunderstorms. Drier, VFR weather is anticipated for Monday and Tuesday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SH AVIATION...SH