592
FXUS61 KRNK 141852
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
Issued by National Weather Service Raleigh NC
252 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening mid and upper level low pressure system across the
Ohio Valley will weaken further and drift northeast into the
mid-Atlantic today. Showers/storms will again be possible,
mainly for the Piedmont areas, with a marginal risk for severe
storms. The storm system will shift away from our region on
Thursday. A cold front will move through our area on Saturday
and should shift southeast of the area on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1255 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

1) Numerous showers and storms may produce an isolated flooding
threat through sunset, along with a few strong cells, mainly SE.

The negatively tilted mid level shortwave trough is now pivoting NE
through the forecast area, amidst above normal PW and marginal
SBCAPE, although the CAPE growth has been slowed by this morning`s
extensive fog/stratus and now by numerous showers and isolated
storms. One strong to severe cell is tracking NE along the CAPE
gradient over our SE, and additional upscale growth is possible
within the developing spiral convective bands to its WSW, although
the effective bulk shear will remain marginal through the afternoon.
Will maintain high pops through sunset, with the elevated moisture,
slow storm motion, wet ground (NASA SPoRT 0-10 cm soil moisture in
the 90th percentile) and dynamic contribution to lift helping to
fuel the threat of localized flooding, which prompted the flood
watch in effect for N and central sections, mainly the eastern
higher terrain, through mid evening, locations that have received
broadly 2-5" of rain in the last 48 hours, with some road closures
and other impacts already. As the trough lifts to our NE this
evening with gradually rising heights and waning (but still near or
just above normal) PW, shower chances should decrease from SW to NE
this evening through tonight, although we may see redevelopment of
scattered showers over our far W toward morning as elevated moist
isentropic upglide at 300K-310K spreads in from the WSW late. We
should also see areas of fog develop overnight as the mid-upper
level clouds move out with a wet ground and light surface winds.
Lows should be in the 50s to lower 60s. -gih

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Not as unsettled as previous days, but still expect a chance of
showers and storms in the morning across the SW, then additional
scattered convection in the afternoon/early evening.

2) There is a Marginal Risk of severe convection Thursday afternoon
and evening, especially across the Blue Ridge and into the Foothills
and Piedmont.

The mid level shortwave trough will continue to lift well to our NE
Thu, as ridging aloft builds from the Gulf up through the Mid South
and S Appalachians. In addition to the fog/stratus areawide, the
risk of showers and a few storms will extend into at least mid
morning across our SW, as the elevated warm frontal zone and its
accompanying moist upglide aloft lifts NE through the area. Then, by
the early-mid afternoon, with the morning stratus likely having
largely burned off amidst a relative lull in pops, we should get
sufficient heating for moderate SBCAPE, as bulk shear increases to
30-40 kts, and a few strong to severe storms will remain possible.
There are indications that we may have a bit of a cap around 700 mb,
though, so despite PW rebounding a bit to just above normal,
convective coverage in the afternoon may be somewhat limited. Will
carry mainly chance pops, but with a short period of low-end likely
in the NW. Highs in the 80s with 70s higher elevations. The
shower/storm risk should wane with loss of heating Thu night,
however residual cloudiness and/or remnant showers from Midwest
convection on Thu may slip into our NW sections overnight, and will
maintain a chance of showers there late. Lows in the 60s. -gih

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 250 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Chance of scattered, mainly afternoon and evening, showers and
storms on Friday and Saturday. Rain chances decrease for Sunday
and Monday and increase a touch for Tuesday.

2) Much warmer for Friday and Saturday and then cooling a bit on
Sunday and into early next week.

Flat mid and upper level ridging across the area on Friday morning
will give way to a strengthening southwesterly flow for Friday into
Saturday supporting increasing thickness values, warmer temperatures
and increasing deep layer moisture with PW values increasing to 125
to 150% of normal for Friday and Saturday. A cold front associated
with a progressive mid-level cyclone that moves across the upper
Midwest on Friday and into the Great Lakes will approach the area on
Friday and move into the region on Saturday supporting scattered,
mainly afternoon and evening, showers and thunderstorms. A few
storms on Saturday could be strong. Highs on Friday and Saturday
will range well into the 80s with perhaps a few upper 70s in the
higher elevations, Saturday`s highs could be dampened a bit by more
clouds and some precipitation.

The cold front is forecast to push through the area on Sunday and
remain across GA and SC into early next week supporting a decrease
in precipitation chances, more sunshine and cooler temperatures,
Highs on Sunday and Monday will range in the mid 70s to lower 80s
with highs moderating into the upper 70s to mid 80s on Tuesday.
-Blaes

&&

.AVIATION /18z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 252 PM EDT Wednesday...

With the upper trough axis moving east, most of the TAF sites have
returned to high-MVFR or VFR, with the exception of RNK, LYH, and DAN
where rain and some embedded tstms continue.  Conditions will
further improvement later this afternoon as the convection moves
east, and by 23Z any lingering sub-VFR conditions should be limited
to MVFR. Flight conditions at all TAF sites are expected to
deteriorate by midnight as the low levels becoming saturated with
night cooling, resulting in IFR or worse conditions developing
across the forecast area.  Look for gradually improving flt
conditions after daybreak Thursday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Beginning Thursday morning, rain chances remain lower through midday
Saturday, though showers/storms will be possible each day due to
daytime heating. Any impact from a storm would lower flight
conditions temporarily, but generally VFR conditions will be
expected at all terminals. By Saturday, a cold front moves into the
area, with the best rain chances expected along/west of the Blue
Ridge. The front moves through by Sunday, with quieter conditions
expected across the area.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
As of 945 AM EDT Monday...

The National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office in
Blacksburg, VA is continuing to conduct a required, scheduled
update to their Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System
(AWIPS) that began Tuesday, May 13, 2025, lasting through
approximately Thursday, May 15, 2025.

During the time of the update, forecast operations will be
conducted by our service back-up office in Raleigh, NC to
minimize any potential interruption to services. No impacts to
our core services of forecast products and weather watches,
warnings and advisories are expected during this period.

However, limited impacts will occur to the following services:

NOAA Weather Transmitters: All NOAA Weather Radio Transmitters
maintained by NWS Blacksburg will be off the air through the
time of the update.

This includes the following transmitters in North Carolina,
Virginia, and West Virginia:

Mount Jefferson (WNG88  162.500 MHz)
Richlands (WZ2543  162.425 MHz)
Wytheville (WZ2500  162.450 MHz)
Roanoke (WXL60  162.475 MHz)
Lynchburg (WXL92  162.550 MHz)
South Boston (KJY86  162.525 MHz)
Hinton (WXM72  162.425 MHz)

Water Level Forecasts: Water level forecast services will be
degraded due to a less frequent update cycle. Forecasts will
remain on https:/water.noaa.gov/wfo/rnk through this period.

Local graphical forecast maps that are hosted in numerous places
on www.weather.gov/rnk will not be updated.

This includes all maps on the Graphical Hazardous Weather
Outlook page (https:/www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=rnk), the
majority of the graphics on the Briefing page
(https:/www.weather.gov/rnk/emer), some experimental fire
applications (https:/www.weather.gov/rnk/fire), climate graphs
for Blacksburg Forecast Area
(https:/www.weather.gov/rnk/climatePlots), and the Weather
Story (https:/www.weather.gov/rnk/weatherstory).

The forecast office in Blacksburg, VA will remain open and
staffed through the period for public and partner phone calls
and additional functions that can be completed without AWIPS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ011-014-
     017>020-022>024-032>035.
NC...None.
WV...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for WVZ043-044-507-
     508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JCB
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM... Blaes
AVIATION...np/JCB
EQUIPMENT...AMS/JCB