150
FXUS61 KRNK 031840
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
240 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

A warm front currently orientated in a southwest to northeast
orientation is draped across the lower Ohio valley towards the
Mid- Atlantic. The cold front to our west is expected to stall,
but will become a breeding ground for thunderstorms that will
organize and move east as an outflow boundary, increasing the
threat for scattered showers and a few storms for our area
through the upcoming weekend. This warm front is expected to drift
north and south across the lower Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic
regions over the next couple of days before an upper level
system pushes a cold front that has remained along east Texas
east by Sunday bringing the weeks best rain chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

1) Record/near Record high overnight temps and daytime temps are
   expected for Friday.

The area will continue to remain on the northern edge of an
upper level ridge centered off the coast of northern Florida.
Given the placement of this ridge, a quasi-stationary warm front
is expected to remain along the northern edge of this ridge.
This will keep minimal rain chances for much of the area on
Friday. Some CAM guidance from 12 UTC have scattered convection
developing across the Virginia Piedmont; however, it is not
widely supported by a majority of CAM models. This leads to low
confidence in these storms developing on Friday, and overall
lower PoPs forecast, with only 30-40 PoPs forecast for areas
generally along and north of the I-64 corridor. Areas south of
the I-64 corridor have 10-20 PoPs forecast. If any storms do
develop, they will be in an environment favorable for strong
winds and hail as MLCAPE looks to be around 1500-2000 J/Kg.
Current guidance suggests that 850mb winds look to drop to
around 10 knots Friday afternoon, which would limit the low
level shear and overall tornado threat/potential for the area.
While low level shear is forecast to drop off, deep layer shear
from the 0-6km level looks to remain elevated at around 40
knots, which will still support strong storms that can produce
strong winds and hail if they develop. This all of course hinges
on the placement of the warm front, which CAM models still
disagree with.

Currently forecast high temperatures are expected to be
in the upper 70s to mid 80s west of the Blue Ridge, and mid to
upper 80s east of the Blue Ridge. These temperatures will lead
to the possibility of many high temperature records being broken
on Friday.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Temperatures to rise

2) Chance of thunderstorms this weekend

Unusually warm weather will continue into Saturday as transportation
of warm and moist air continues from the south. High temperatures
will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s region wide. Temperatures could
get as high as 90 in parts of the NC/VA Piedmont but this will be
dependent on how much cloud cover there will be.

The front that has been stalling over the Mid-Atlantic will finally
push through southward this weekend as the surface high pressure
system over the Atlantic moves away from the Carolina coast. Because
of the moist and warm conditions leading up to the frontal passage,
conditions are favorable for widespread precipitation for Sunday as
the front passes through. The precipitation totals have trended
up with the most recent model guidance with potentially up to
0.5" inches of rain for southside VA and northern NC. The WPC
has already placed parts of these areas under a Marginal Risk of
Excessive Rainfall due to the flash flood potential. Severe
weather potential still remains unclear. Environment looks to be
a low CAPE / high shear set up, but lapse rates and forcing are
not to impressive enough to produce anything but general
thunderstorms at the moment.

As the front passes, winds will pick up considerably and become
northwesterly. Sustained winds areawide are expected to be between
10-15 mph with gusts up to 40 mph at the highest peaks along the
Blue Ridge.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

1) Cold temperatures to return

Another cold front will move in early next week, following the
weekend cold front. This front will bring in notably colder and
drier air. Dew points could potentially drop into the teens and
single digits and mid-week early morning temperatures could be as
low as in the 20s and 30s. With the winds that accompany this cold
front, wind chills are likely to drop into the 20s and teens. Single
digit wind chills for Western Greenbrier are not out of the
question. The winds will be around 10-15 mph with gusts of 20-35 mph
along and west of the Blue Ridge.

The new air mass will bring stabler conditions, clear skies, and a
break in the storms. There is a signal of an upper level trough that
could bring another chance of storms by late next week but guidance
model agreement gets messy and the timing and impacts of this system
are currently very uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Thursday...

MVFR CIGs have slowly been eroding all morning for terminals
just east of the Blue Ridge to include LYH, ROA, and DAN. These
terminals should see these lower CIGs lift to VFR levels by the
19-20 UTC timeframe this afternoon as the wedge continues to
erode, and temperatures rise. Once temperatures do rise,
boundary layer mixing will increase southerly wind gusts at all
terminals this afternoon and evening to around 20-25 knots. This
afternoon and evening as surface instability increases across
areas west of the Blue Ridge, the warm front that is currently
draped across central and northern West Virginia is expected to
wiggle south into this developing unstable airmass. As this
happens, scattered convection is likely to develop and push
north and east as all the storms this morning have done thus far
across portions of central West Virginia. Thunderstorm activity
should be mainly relegated to Terminals west of the I-81
corridor; therefore, only -TSRA and VCTS has been added to BCB,
BLF, ROA, and LWB for this afternoon and evening. These storms
look to exit/dissipate across this area by the 00-02 UTC
timeframe. MVFR CIGs do look to develop across DAN, LYH, and ROA
towards the early morning hours on Friday. All other terminals
look to remain VFR through the period.



.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

A frontal boundary should stall across the Ohio River Valley
during tonight into Friday. This frontal boundary will keep
chances of showers and thunderstorms present into the upcoming
weekend. Otherwise, conditions should stay mostly VFR outside of
any afternoon convection or any increase in moisture at night
that could produce a layer of low clouds. A cold front may
arrive by late Sunday into Sunday night to provide sub-VFR
conditions and a more widespread chance of showers and
thunderstorms. MVFR ceilings might linger into Monday across the
mountains, while a gusty northwest wind returns.

&&

.CLIMATE OUTLOOK...

Several record high and warmest low temperatures are on track to
possibly be broken tonight and on Friday across the area.
Blacksburg and Roanoke may break their record high temperatures
of 83 and 87 with forecast highs of 84 and 88 degrees
respectively tomorrow. All climate sites have a chance to break
their record warmest low tonight as WAA is forecast to continue
through the overnight hours keeping temperatures well above the
average for this time of the year, with lows in the low to mid
60s forecast areawide.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...EB
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...EB/PM