994
FXUS61 KRNK 030527
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
127 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region today with dry
weather expected for the upcoming Holiday weekend. Little or no
additional rain is forecast until next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 113 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Less humid/dry today.

An isolated shower or two are present on radar east of the Blue
Ridge. Slow moving and leading to some higher rainfall over
Yadkin County. The 00z 3km NAM had a better handle on this
compared to other CAMs, but probably overdone. Some lingering
upper support/divergence and low level convergence will keep
this activity widely scattered in the Piedmont through 300-400am
at most. Fog already forming per satellite over the rivers of
WV. Should see patchy fog in this area and possibly some of the
piedmont where it rained.

High pressure builds into the area today, providing dry weather.
Some models hint at isolated sprinkles with a shortwave but
airmass looks to dry for that, so kept it out of the forecast
for now. May see something briefly east of Danville/Lynchburg
but coverage is less than 10 percent. Dewpoints dropping into
the upper 50s to lower 60s will keep it a bit more comfortable
with highs closer to normal with upper 80s east to upper 70s to
mid 80s west.

High pressure keeps us dry into tonight. Could see fog again
late tonight in the river valleys. Lows in the 60s, with some
upper 50s in the mountain valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Points:

1. Dry with above normal temperatures for Independence Day.
2. Continued dry and warm/hot for Saturday.
3. Still warm/hot on Sunday but with isolated showers/storms.

A look at the 2 Jul 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential
Heights shows for Friday an upper ridge centered over the
Mississippi River Valley. A shortwave trough will be centered over
the Canadian Maritimes. Another shortwave trough will be over the
Northern Plains states, and a broader trough will be over far
western CONUS. For Saturday/Saturday night the ridge axis shifts to
over our region. The Northern Plains shortwave trough shifts into
the western Great Lakes. A localized closed low is depicted within
the ensemble members over FL. For Sunday/Sunday night, the ridge
axis shifts lightly to our east while the shortwave trough over the
western Great Lakes shifts to the eastern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley
region. The localized low over FL shifts north into the SE US.

At the surface, for Friday, high pressure is expected to be centered
over PA. The influence of the high extends from southern Quebec to
the mid-Mississippi Valley. Low pressure will be over Hudson Bay,
with an associated cold front extending southwest into the Northern
and Central Plains states. For Saturday/Saturday night, a ridge of
high pressure remains over our region. A cold front remains over
Quebec to the central US. For Sunday/Sunday night, the cold front
heads southeast into the Great Lakes and mid-Mississippi Valley.
Additionally, the ridge over our region weakens a bit.

A look at the 1 Jul 12Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness data
shows 850mb temperatures are expected to average +17C to +19C, nw-
se, across the region on Friday. For Saturday, values remain the
same but with the orientation switch to e-w. On Sunday, values trend
to +18C to +19C, nw-se, On each of these days, the top end of the
temperature gradient touches the 90 to 97.5 percentile of the 30-
year CFSR climatology.

Taking humidity into consideration, some locations over the far
southeast portion of the region could see Heat Index values
around 100F Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon.

The above weather patterns offers the following forecast. High
pressure over the region is expected to provide a dry Independence
Day and Saturday. With the weakening of the ridge on Sunday, and the
approach of the cold front, some afternoon isolated to
showers/storms will be possible. Temperatures during the period will
average around five degrees above normal.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is high.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 100 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Points:

1. Increasing chances of showers/storms heading into mid- week.
2. Temperatures around five degrees above average.
3. Heat Index near 100F for the far southeastern sections
Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon.

A look a the 2 Jul 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential Heights
shows for Monday/Monday night a broadly averaged ridge of high
pressure extending from the western Atlantic west into much of
eastern and central CONUS. Only the northern sections of CONUS
remain active with weak shortwave troughs riding through the
northern jet on the south side of low pressure centered just west of
Greenland. Much of far western CONUS is under the axis of a trough.
For Tuesday/Tuesday night little changes synoptically as compared to
Monday. Ensemble averaged ripples with in the northern jet change
location, but not with any confident pattern. For Wednesday, while
little change is expected synoptically, the northern stream jet dips
a little farther south. Any shortwave troughs within this flow may
reach as south as the Mason-Dixon Line.

At the surface, a cold front makes progress towards our region
Monday into Monday night, reaching portions of the mid-Atlantic
region and Ohio Valley by the early evening. The high pressure ridge
over eastern CONUS is shunted eastward into the western Atlantic.
For Tuesday/Tuesday night the same front washes out, or remains
nearly stationary over the same region. Separate high pressure
centers are located both north and south of this front. For
Wednesday, not much change is expected as compared to Tuesday.

A look at the 2 Jul 12Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness data
shows 850mb temperatures average around +18C on Monday, Tuesday, and
Wednesday.

The above weather patterns offers the following forecast. With a
cold front approaching/arriving over the region, look for
progressively higher probabilities of showers/storms by mid-week.
Much of the activity will be diurnally based, meaning greater
coverage from the afternoon into evening hours. Temperatures will
average around five degrees above normal each day. Taking humidity
into consideration, some locations over the far southeast portion of
the region could see Heat Index values around 100F Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoon.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate to high.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 125 AM EDT Thursday...

Just a few showers exiting LYH and will be near DAN so not out
of the question for fog at these sites in the next few hours, so
allowed for tempo of IFR vsbys. Switching west, except for ROA,
fog will be a factor and may impact vsbys as low as LIFR at
LWB/BCB/BLF. This fog/low cloud potential is moderate, but
should see it clear out between 12-14z, with VFR through the
rest of the period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR conditions are expected outside of morning valley fog
through early next week. May see some isolated to scattered
storms Sunday into Monday but low confidence on aviation
terminal impacts.


&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...VFJ/WP