Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
196 FXUS61 KRNK 160544 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 144 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All discussions including aviation have been updated. Heat index values look to remain below 105F. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) While very warm/hot conditions prevail, areas of smoke will likely suppress daytime high temperatures through Friday. Given this scenario, heat indices stay below advisory criteria. 2) Scattered daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms return tomorrow into midweek. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...While very warm/hot conditions prevail, areas of smoke will likely suppress daytime high temperatures through Friday. Given this scenario, heat indices stay below advisory criteria. Satellite imagery this morning shows two main moisture arteries over the CONUS. One extended from the 4 corners region, north to south central Canada, and then SE towards the DelMarva Peninsula. he other was located over the Deep South. In between these 2 areas, high pressure was suppressing any precipitation. Some of the strongest heights associated with the ridge were over the Mid-Atlantic region. At the surface, high pressure had weakened some with a lee trough in our area. The ridging will continue to support abnormally hot weather today through Saturday. Smoke aloft from MN and Canadian wildfires kept temperatures from getting too absurdly hot yesterday, and this will be the case again today and tomorrow. Have gone about 3-5 degrees below model guidance for highs. Have also added haze to the forecast for the daytime hours. Heat indices today should mainly stay under the 105 degree advisory threshold for the Piedmont, but may still exceed 100 in parts of the Piedmont and Roanoke Valley. Friday looks quite similar across this area since possible shower and storm relief should be mainly confined to the mountains. For Saturday, dew points begin to tick back up, but we will also see more cloud cover and precipitation by the afternoon. So it will still be plenty hot and humid. Have lowered PoPs a category Saturday as the NBM continues to be very bullish (near 100 percent for summertime convection). Sunday into Wednesday definitely look cooler with active WNW troughing replacing ridging, bringing plenty of chances for showers and thunderstorms. KEY MESSAGE 2...Scattered daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms return tomorrow into mid week. All or portions of the area are included in WPC`s Excessive Rainfall Outlook Friday through Sunday. PWATs will range from 1.30 (north) to about 1.75 inches (south) each of these days. Deep warm cloud depths will support tall updrafts capable of holding a lot of water, and storm motions will be relatively slow. This along with the fact that a surface boundary may be in the area suggesting training cells does point towards areas of heavy rainfall resulting in isolated urban, small stream, and flash flooding. Severe weather in the form of downbursts looks unlikely until Saturday, when strong PVA is able to work into the area. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions look to last through the period outside of possible morning river valley fog at BCB and LWB. While surface VSBYs look to remain clear, some smoke from wildfires in Canada/Upper Midwest that have blown over the area may impact VSBYs aloft. Winds look to remain light across the area at around 5 knots or less, with a generally NW flow expected for most terminals on Thursday. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Shower and storms chances return Friday across the mountains and become more widespread across the area into the weekend and early next week, with potential sub-MVFR or conditions. Mountain valley fog/low stratus will also be possible each morning. Expect an easterly component to the wind Friday, with gusts below 15 kts. A westerly wind with speeds between 6 and 12 kts develops Saturday and Sunday, with gusts to 25 kts or so. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SH AVIATION...AB/EB