685
FXUS61 KRNK 232323
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
723 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool wedge of high pressure weakens today as a cold front
approaches from the northwest. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible through the weekend. After the cold
front exits late Sunday night, high pressure will return to
bring cooler and drier weather for the rest of the week.
Temperatures will be below normal for much of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 710 PM EDT Saturday...

Showers to the west are struggling moving to the east this
evening. Lowered PoPs through this evening along and east of the
Blue Ridge. Showers should move across the mountains through the
early morning hours Sunday, then east of the Blue Ridge in the
afternoon.

As of 100 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1. Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the
evening. Greater coverage expected Sunday.

2. Most rainfall amounts under an inch, but a couple inches could be
possible under heavy downpours.

Surface high pressure continues to move eastward and off the
northern Mid Atlantic Coast, but has kept low clouds over much of
the western areas of the forecast area for most of the morning
hours. Higher clouds are advancing from the south, associated
with a shortwave over the Carolinas, which has been producing
significant rainfall and flooding in coastal cities. This
feature will track northward along the coast through today,
eventually getting swept up into the broader trough. A cold
front currently over the Midwest will continue its trek to the
east through today, crossing the area Sunday. Precipitable water
values have fallen below one inch, per the 12Z sounding at RNK,
but ample moisture remains to the south, looking at the 12Z
sounding at GSO, where PWATs exceed 1.25". Southerly flow will
bring the greater moisture northward through today ahead of the
front. This and the proximity of the front itself will be enough
to spark scattered showers and thunderstorms along and west of
the Blue Ridge this afternoon and evening. Showers are ongoing
in far southwest VA, and almost 0.75" of rain has fallen in
Richlands, VA. Cloud cover through today, as well as the more
stable airmass to the east, will limit overall severe potential,
but storms could still be capable of producing heavy rain.
Rainfall amounts are mostly less than an inch areawide, but
cannot rule localized higher totals under some of the stronger
storms with higher rainfall rates. Storm motion will also be
fairly slow, as 0-8km mean wind is 10 knots or less on forecast
soundings. Could see some excessive runoff with those heavier
downpours, especially in urban locations and other locations
that have received a lot of rain in the past few days.

As the cold front pushes through Sunday, coverage of showers and
thunderstorms will increase, given the additional support provided
by the front. More sunshine is expected tomorrow, helping to
increase instability, especially more than today, SBCAPE forecast to
rise above 1000 J/kg for most of the area west of the Blue Ridge by
the afternoon. Better bulk shear, up to 30 knots, could result in a
few clusters of more organized storms, and possibly a couple of
those becoming strong to severe. Heavy rain is once again possible,
though the more progressive nature of the storms Sunday will help to
limit an increased flooding threat. CAMs are showing storms
develop earlier in the day for areas west of the Blue Ridge, and
then redeveloping later on in the Piedmont.

Today and tomorrow will be the last two muggy days, with
temperatures a few degrees warmer Sunday than today. Looking at the
mid 70s to mid 80s across the area. Elevated dewpoints will keep
overnight temperatures in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

1. Cooler than normal temperatures, and dry weather.

A cold front will be exiting out of the forecast area into eastern
Virginia by Sunday night. Northwesterly flow aloft may keep isolated
to scattered upslope showers over the mountains through midnight,
but as drier air enters the region with high pressure building in,
these showers will come to an end by early Monday morning, thus
kicking of a stretch of dry weather with below normal temperatures.
Winds will increase behind the front, as cold air advection and
pressure rises increase over the area, gusts between 15 to 25 mph
are possible, especially along the higher elevations, but these
winds will decrease through the evening and overnight, allowing lows
to drop into the 40s and 50s. The real first taste of fall will
continue through the beginning of the work week, as high
temperatures reach the mid to upper 60s in the west, and mid to
upper 70s in the east, averaging between 5 to 10 degrees below
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 120 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

1. Drier and cooler weather dominates latter half of next week.

Another upper level low will replace the previous one in Canada
while a high pressure system makes its way across the eastern CONUS.
The surface air mass will continue to provide cooler and drier
conditions. Early morning temperatures are forecast to be in the
upper 40s to upper 50s with highs in the mid-60s to upper 70s. Dew
points will likely be in the mid-40s to mid-50s for most of the
latter half of next week. Light surface winds will vary in direction
as the center of the surface high moves eastward. The presence of
this high will keep precipitation chances very low. Vorticity
passages during the second half of next week may bring some
scattered cloud cover but with the air so dry, widespread cloud
development will struggle. The surface high gets pushed out by
another cold front that may arrive by next weekend, followed by
another surface high pressure system. The front is too far out to
confidently know its potential timing and impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 715 PM EDT Saturday...

Mostly VFR this evening, but will lower as showers enters the
mountains overnight. Clouds heights are increasing over the
Piedmont this evening and should not lower to MVFR until Sunday
afternoon.

Light southerly winds expected tonight, then turning to the
west (6-10 kts) as a cold front slides across the area Sunday.

Patchy fog is possible for a few hours Sunday morning, mainly
for KBCB, KLWB and KBLF, but not as confident since cloud cover
overnight may hinder fog formation.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Showers will end west to east Sunday afternoon across the
mountains and in the evening across the Piedmont. Some patchy
fog but mostly stratus lingers Monday morning. NW winds behind
the front will gust to 15-20 knots at times late Sunday night
through Tuesday. High pressure settles in on Monday, with VFR
conditions through late next week. Winds remain NW to N through
Wednesday night.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AS/SH
NEAR TERM...AS/RCS
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...RCS