479
FXUS61 KRNK 090123
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
923 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will settle into the region today and bring cooler
temperatures, clear skies, and dry conditions through Saturday.
A low pressure system will develop along the Carolina coastline
on Saturday and Sunday, which could bring clouds back into the
region, along with a few rain showers. Dry conditions return for
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 900 PM EDT Wednesday...


No major changes were made to the forecast tonight. Skies have
cleared across the region; however, winds continue to remain
slightly elevated out of the northwest. This will continue to
limit frost development for much of the area west of the Blue
Ridge; however, patchy frost will still be possible across Bath
and Greenbrier counties tonight. This will be especially the
case in sheltered locations from the wind.

Previous Discussion:

Key Messages:

1. Clearing skies and cooler temperatures.

2. Patchy frost possible in higher elevations. Frost Advisory in
effect.


A cold front has fully crossed through the area this afternoon
and will be headed east off into the Atlantic tonight. Clouds
have begun to gradually clear and a notable wind shift to the
northwest has occurred with the frontal passage. Upslope
stratus will linger over the western mountains through this
evening, but should eventually begin to diminish giving way to
widespread clear skies overnight.

A much cooler airmass will settle in overnight and temperatures
will fall into the 30s and lower 40s. There is some potential
for frost, mainly focused within the Greenbrier Valley region.
This will be highly dependent on if winds can subside overnight,
so fog formation tonight outside of Greenbrier County is very
low.

Breezy conditions continue during the day on Thursday with
cooler highs in the 50s and 60s. Winds will shift to a northeast
direction as high pressure wedges down from the north. Skies
should remain clear.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 150 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Freeze Watch for Greenbrier and Bath Counties Thursday night into
Friday morning.

2) Frost possible along and west of the Blue Ridge Friday morning.

3) A coastal low forms off the southeastern coast of the United
States.

A high pressure system will vigorously wedge into the mountains
later this week, bringing colder and drier air behind it. The
wedging process may bring some stronger winds as well. Wind gusts
may increase to 15-20 mph at higher elevations depending on how
perpendicular surface winds are relative to the mountains. Friday
morning will be the coldest morning of the week with lows in the mid-
30s along & west of the Blue Ridge and lows between the mid-30s and
mid-40s east of the Blue Ridge. Some areas will see freezing
temperatures, particularly in Greenbrier and Bath Counties,
where a Freeze Watch has been issued for this risk. Otherwise,
patchy frost is possible for areas west of the Blue Ridge. Wind
values at (relatively) lower altitudes west of the Blue Ridge
will be weak enough to support frost formation in conjunction
with mostly clear skies. The time frame when frost will be most
likely is between the hours of 5AM - 8AM EDT on Friday morning.
Temperatures will be a little warmer (still on the cooler side)
on Saturday and Sunday morning and not support widespread frost
coverage.

Later this week, a shortwave trough over the Deep South will move
southeastward and interact with a cold front to form a coastal low
off the southeastern coast of the United States. Model guidance
continues to agree on the formation and modest strengthening of this
system by this weekend. This system also pulls a little northward
thanks to the influence of a potent cutoff low over the Great Lakes,
so wind speed and direction changes could be felt as early as Sunday
morning in central Virginia.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 150 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Coastal low to bring a chance of precipitation to central VA
early next week.

2) Warming trend possible next week.

An upper level trough over the Deep South will interact with a cold
front and form a coastal low just off the southeastern coast of
America. A cutoff low over the Great Lakes will move southeastward
and absorb the coastal low by early next week. The surface portion
of the coastal low will strengthen a little and bring a chance of
rain to central VA as it migrates around the cutoff low. (For
clarification, the coastal low has a surface and upper level
component). While model guidance is in agreement with the
initiation of the coastal low, the cutoff low`s complete
trajectory is in question. The surface low`s path is highly
dependent on what the cutoff low does and there is too much
spread in the models to definitively state what will likely
happen. Other than rain chances, the only other possible impact
to the area is an increase in wind speed east of the Blue Ridge
due to the pressure gradient from the system.

Even so, model consensus suggests a large ridge forming over the
southern United States, with its center possibly over Texas. This
will result in rising heights for most of the nation, including our
area, and a warming trend. By mid-next week, dew points and air
temperatures should increase to above normal values. Dew points may
be as high as the mid-40s to mid-50s and air temperatures may be in
the mid-60s to mid-70s. These values are more or less comfortable,
but still higher than what would be expected for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 700 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions have returned to all terminals behind the front
this evening. Wind gusts have also started to slowly diminish
areawide, with gusts now dropping below 15 knots at most
locations. While winds look to remain more calm through the
overnight hours, they still look to remain elevated at around
5-10 knots. During the afternoon hours on Thursday, wind gusts
look to pick up once again during the late morning and early
afternoon hours to around 15-20 knots for LYH and DAN, but
should remain around 10-15 knots for LWB, BCB, ROA, and BLF.
Similarly, these wind gusts look to diminish around sunset on
Thursday. Winds will also shift to out of the northeast for a
majority of the day on Thursday after sunrise.

With very dry air pushing into the region, expect mostly clear
skies areawide, with some high level cirrus possible throughout
the day. This will keep VFR conditions in place for all
terminals throughout the taf period. Winds look to remain
elevated enough overnight to keep any fog from developing at LWB
and BCB.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Extended period of dry weather becoming more likely. This will
result in widespread VFR. With a drier airmass arriving, fog
development should become less of a concern.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ020.
     Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning
     for VAZ020.
NC...None.
WV...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for WVZ507-508.
     Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning
     for WVZ507-508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG/EB
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...BMG/EB