Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
007 FXUS61 KRNK 161440 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1040 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Expect dry weather through Saturday. A passing cold front on Sunday may bring some light rain amounts to the region. Dry high pressure returns again for the beginning of next week. Another potential cold front could arrive as early as Wednesday next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1040 AM EDT Thursday... No major changes to the going forecast. Mostly sunny skies will support dry and near or just below normal temperatures today. A Frost Advisory remains in effect for parts of the Greenbrier Valley, Alleghany Highlands, and the southern Shenandoah Valley late tonight into Friday morning. As of 100 AM EDT Thursday... Key Message: 1. Dry conditions with the potential for some frost on Thursday night. Upper flow still remains northwesterly, resulting in continued stratus along the western slopes. High pressure will slowly move southeast from Canada today and should see winds relax slightly as the pressure gradient lessens. Clear skies will promote warm afternoon highs after a chilly start this morning. Morning lows in the 40s and 50s will warm to 60s and 70s for afternoon highs. With high pressure becoming more situated overhead tonight, along with clear skies and light/calm winds, should have optimal radiational cooling. This will allow for temperatures to fall into the mid/lower 30s across the mountains. Patchy frost seems likely, especially across Greenbrier, Alleghany Highlands and the southern Shenandoah Valley. Here a Frost Advisory has been issued to account for the frost potential late Thursday night. Outside of the mountains, temperatures upper 30s to low 40s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 1245 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: 1) Frost Advisory in place for Bath, Rockbridge and Greenbrier counties Friday morning. 2) Patchy frost west of the Blue Ridge Friday morning. 3) Next rain chance arrives Sunday afternoon. Friday morning will start out quite cold, with patchy frost west of the Blue Ridge expected. A few isolated spots could see temperatures fall below freezing. However, recent trends up in temperatures have kept frost more likely than a freeze. A Frost Advisory is currently in place for Bath, Rockbridge, and Greenbrier counties. The cold air is due to a high pressure system with origins in northeastern Canada ridging down the Appalachians into our area with northerly winds. This cooler air lasts through most of Friday as the high then breaks off from the north and moves offshore into the western Atlantic, which will quickly shift winds to the southerly direction Friday night. This flow will increase temperatures and moisture across the area. High pressure remains in control for Friday and Saturday, with sunny skies and pleasant conditions expected. A subtle upper level trough passes by Friday night with some mid- level moisture, but very dry air at the surface will keep convection virtually non-existent, though a stray light sprinkle cannot be ruled out. The moisture will provide cloud cover into Saturday morning before quickly clearing out. A strong low pressure system will develop in the Great Plains and move into the Great Lakes Region on Saturday. It will be accompanied by a longwave upper-level trough and a strong frontal boundary. This begins to move east and into our area by midday Sunday, bringing the best chance of showers for the next week to our area. As has been the case with several systems recently, the front weakens as it moves over the mountains, and moisture begins to fade. Areas west of the Blue Ridge will likely see showers as the front moves through, with rain totals near a quarter of an inch. For the Piedmont, rain is still expected, but will be more scattered, as the low weakens and moves north into Canada. Still, enough lift should allow most areas to at least receive some rainfall, though amounts will be light for the Piedmont, around a tenth of an inch. Winds will be quite strong on Sunday afternoon, with southwesterly winds of 10-20 mph and gusts of 30+ mph expected. Due to the southerly winds ahead of the front, warmer air will advect into the area, keeping temperatures above normal for the weekend. Friday will be the exception, with highs in the 60s area- wide, which is still above normal for the mountains. For the weekend, highs will be in the 70s across the entire area, with some spots possibly reaching 80 degrees. Overnight lows will vary, with Saturday morning being mostly in the 40s, thanks in part to the increased cloud cover previously mentioned. Sunday morning will have temperatures in the 50s, as cloud cover again moves in, along with increasing southwesterly winds. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1245 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: 1) Showers linger into Monday morning. 2) Next front arrives Tuesday, small rain chances. 3) Temperatures stay right around normal. The cold front that moved into the area Sunday afternoon pushes through the area Sunday night, with light showers continuing. Winds overnight will be elevated, around 10-15 mph from the west, with gusts of 25-35 mph possible, particularly for the ridgetops. By early Monday morning, the front will be off to the east near the coast, with only a few lingering showers for the northern part of the area, due to being closer to the surface low and the upper trough overhead. These quickly end by midday, with high pressure building over the Mid-Atlantic for Monday night and into Tuesday. Winds reduce throughout the day, becoming light by Tuesday. The high begins to shift offshore as the next frontal system arrives late Tuesday. A low pressure over the Great Plains will again move north of our area and into the Great Lakes Region, with the front quickly ushering through. Moisture will be very limited, with most areas unlikely to receive measurable rainfall. The best chance will be west of the Blue Ridge, though PoPs are only around 20-30%. The front breezes through, with another large high pressure over the southern Plains moving into the area for midweek, with quiet weather returning. Temperatures will remain right around normal through the period, with upper 50s to low 60s for the mountains, and upper 60s to low 70s for the Piedmont for both Monday and Wednesday. Highs increase ahead of the cold front Tuesday, to the 60s/70s. Overnight lows will mainly be in the 40s, with upper 30s for the highest elevations. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1040 AM EDT Thursday... VFR conditions and mostly clear skies through period except for possible morning FB/BR near LWB. Winds generally out of the north to NW today under 10 kts then becoming mainly light to calm overnight tonight. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Cannot rule out fog at LWB in the typical 09-14z time frame, but with drier airmass fog will be confined to near river valleys. The next chance of rain will come Sunday into Monday with periods of MVFR conditions possible. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for VAZ020-024. NC...None. WV...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for WVZ507-508. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMG NEAR TERM...BMG/SH SHORT TERM...JCB LONG TERM...JCB AVIATION...AB/BMG