035
FXUS61 KRNK 170035
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
835 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
New aviation discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) While very warm/hot conditions prevail, areas of smoke will likely
suppress daytime high temperatures through Friday and resultant heat
indices stay below advisory criteria.

2) Scattered daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
return tomorrow into midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...While very warm/hot conditions prevail, areas of smoke
will likely suppress daytime high temperatures through Friday and
resultant heat indices stay below advisory criteria.

The upper ridge of high pressure has dampened, however the enhanced
moisture field stays to our south and west and the dry heat continues
today. Canadian smoke continues to likely filter out some of the sun
across the eastern CWA which should keep afternoon highs slightly lower
and resultant heat indices should stay mainly in the low 100s outside
of advisory level. Tomorrow looks to be a similar story for the east,
though as the ridge slides more eastward some moisture could creep into
the west and with daytime heating and orographic lift the mountains
could see some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Scattered daily afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms return tomorrow into midweek.

While convective potential looks to remain primarily across the
mountains for Friday afternoon/evening, an upper shortwave and
attendant sfc boundary will approach the area for Saturday and allow
for more widespread shower and storm development. Shear parameters are
not very impressive though with the upper forcing from the wave and
healthy progged instability of 3000+ J/kg there is potential for strong
to severe development with the main threat of damaging downburst winds.
SPC currently has parts of the north and east in a Day 3 Slight Risk
with a Marginal Risk elsewhere.

The frontal boundary may stall near the south and east portions of the
area going into Sunday, which would focus the greatest chances of
precip. There may be an increased flooding threat with possible
training of storms along the boundary. The first part of the
work week looks to be supportive of general chances for daytime
showers/storms, then more organized or widespread development
could occur again Wednesday with another upper wave and sfc
front potentially traversing the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Overall, expect VFR conditions at area terminals through 17/2400
UTC. Terminals across SE WV, especially KLWB, could be an
exception, with areas of morning BR reducing VSBY to 1/4SM
possible. Possible HZ/FU aloft may again be seen Fri, especially
across E terminals, with FEW to SCTD Cu/Ac. ISOLD afternoon SHRA
or TSRA may be seen, mainly W of the Blue Ridge. However,
probabilities remain too low to mention in the TAFs. Winds
generally light varying across the sites becoming calm overnight
then increasing out of the northeast Friday for LYH and DAN
staying under 10 kts.

OUTLOOK SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Shower and storms chances become more widespread across the
area into the weekend and early next week, with potential sub-
MVFR or conditions. Mountain valley fog/low stratus will also be
possible each morning.

Expect an easterly component to the wind Friday, with gusts
below 15 kts. A westerly wind with speeds between 6 and 12 kts
develops Saturday and Sunday, with gusts to 25 kts or so.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Air Quality Alert from 6 AM to 9 PM EDT Friday for VAZ019-020-
     022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ004>006.
     Air Quality Alert from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ004>006.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AB
AVIATION...AB/DB