732
FXUS61 KRNK 261749
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
149 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

While high pressure looks to remain over the region, the upper
level ridge has finally relaxed over the eastern conus, which
has reduced the overall subsidence across the area. This will
continue to allow widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms
to develop as an extremely moist and unstable airmass continues
to remain over the region through the middle of next week. This
will keep daily chances of showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast. With the ridge weakening, temperatures will gradually
cool to more seasonal temperatures through the weekend into
into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...
As of 145 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Scattered thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening with
marginal risk for severe and excessive rainfall.

Surface high pressure sliding off the Northeast coastline on
Friday will lead to light northeasterly flow across area. This
will add some enhanced upslope and convergent surface flow
across the eastern facing Blue Ridge. An early start of storms
is possible across higher terrain locations given the
aforementioned upslope and convergent flow. This flow pattern
combined with a highly unstable environment characterized by
1800 to 2500 J/Kg of SBCAPE and 1200-1500 J/Kg of DCAPE will
provide support for strong downburst winds and isolated large
hail across the area. With PWATs in the 1.6-1.8 inch range,
there will also be the possibility of localized flash flooding.
Thunderstorm activity should diminish through the late evening
hours across the area as instability starts to wane. Daytime
high temperatures look to be elevated in the low 90s east of the
Blue Ridge, and mid to upper 80s west of the Blue Ridge. While
dewpoints will remain elevated in the low to mid 70s in the
Piedmont, forecast daytime high temperatures have come down
enough that a Heat Advisory is not warranted as Heat index
Values should drop back into the upper 90s to low 100s.

Lows this morning will drop into the mid 60s west of the Blue
Ridge, and low 70s east of the Blue Ridge. With plentiful
moisture expected near the surface across the area from today`s
forecast thunderstorms, areas of fog will develop towards the
late overnight and early morning hours for much of the area.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1210 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

1) Hot and humid through the weekend, with daily chances of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

High pressure will slide off the southeast coast while low pressure
wobbles over the southeastern states this weekend. The combination
of these two systems will continue to pump warm moist air into the
region. During peak heating, storms will likely form along and west
of the Blue Ridge, then drift east over the foothills and Piedmont
in the evening. Storms should fade by midnight, but a few may linger
into the early morning hours. The primary threat from these storms
will be damaging wind gusts. With PWATS ranging from 1.30 to 1.70
inches and storm motion is weak, local flash flooding is possible.

High temperatures this weekend will range from the low to mid 80s
across the mountains to the low to mid 90s across the foothills and
Piedmont. These temperatures are around 4F to 8F warmer than normal.
Dew points will also remain warm running between the mid 60s to mid
70s. The coupling the two will have heat indices values 3F to 7F
warmer than the actual temperatures.


&&


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1210 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Hot temperatures and daily chances of showers and
thunderstorms continue.

2) More widespread thunderstorms possible Tuesday with the
passage of a cold front, which may also bring some relief from
the heat.

The threat of scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will
continue Monday. A cold front is expected to slowly track across the
region Tuesday into Wednesday. This front will bring a higher chance
for more widespread showers and thunderstorms to the area. This
front should move into eastern Virginia and central North Carolina
Tuesday night into Wednesday with slightly cooler drier airmass
overtaking the area Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Thursday...

Mainly VFR condition are expected through the remainder of today
outside of any thunderstorm activity that may move into the vicinity
of terminals this afternoon and evening. These thunderstorms may
produce brief periods of MVFR to LIFR CIGs and VSBYs if impacting a
terminal, as well as cause erratic wind directions and sudden wind
speed increases.

Overnight and towards the early morning hours, MVFR VSBYs and CIGs
look to develop at BCB, LYH, LWB, and BLF as moisture from today`s
shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to lead to increased
moisture at the surface and development of areawide ground fog.
These reduced VSBYs and CIGs look to lift rather quickly around 12
UTC for all terminals.

Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms look to develop
during the late morning and early afternoon on Friday, with storms
initially developing across higher terrain locations west of the
Blue Ridge. These storms throughout the afternoon and evening look
to progress east into the Piedmont. For now only ROA, BCB, BLF, and
LWB have had VCTS added to their tafs for Friday. Outside of this
activity, expect VFR conditions to prevail through the end of the
TAF period once the low stratus and fog lifts in the early morning
hours.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure should maintain VFR conditions into early next
week outside of any storms and late night/early morning fog.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ022-023-
     033>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ004>006-020.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EB
NEAR TERM...EB
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...EB