707
FXUS61 KRNK 132340
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
740 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid weather will likely continue through the end of
the work week and early portion of the weekend, with daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms. A frontal boundary will
push through the region late Friday into Saturday, which will
bring in much drier air and lower rain chances through the
weekend and into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Widely scattered showers/storms this evening, with most areas
dry. Fog and low clouds are likely late tonight.

Coverage of showers/storms had dwindled this afternoon after the
earlier day rain. There is an embedded vort across the central
Appalachians early this evening along with some weak surface
convergence along/east of the Blue Ridge. Basically,
shower/storm coverage will be isolated to widely scattered with
best coverage north of Lynchburg and south of US 421 in NC.
Later this evening, another wave and deeper moisture convergence
tracks out of KY into WV so have upped pops along I-64 in WV and
west of I-77. Overall most will stay dry with skies stay mostly
cloudy, though some clearing potential exists east of the
mountains. This could lead to some dense fog potential where it
rained plus low level moisture remains high. For now will be
monitoring fog development through the evening into the
overnight, but those traveling on their morning commute Thursday
may need to be aware that fog could slow you down.

Previous discussion...

A shortwave perturbation is expected to eject north and east out
of the eastern Gulf and through southern North Carolina on
Thursday. This will provide more forcing for ascent across North
Carolina throughout the morning and afternoon hours on Thursday.
With the best forcing for ascent confined to North Carolina on
Thursday, the best chances for excessive rainfall look to be for
areas along the VA/NC border and points south. While some
isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected for the rest of
the forecast area, widespread activity look to be confined to
the areas mentioned above. A weak frontal boundary does look to
reach the West Virginia/Virginia border late on Thursday, which
will start to advect drier air into the region. This dry air
advection is what will predominantly keep activity isolated in
nature for most north and west of the I-81 corridor. With PWATs
near or just above 2.0 inches still in place across the VA/NC
border and points south, any storms that do linger or find a
pocket of instability may produce excessive amounts of rainfall
in a short period of time, and could cause localized flash
flooding.

With increased low and mid level moisture being advected into
the region from the northern Gulf continuing through Thursday,
the area will continue to maintain a rather thick blanket of
cloud cover, with temperatures remaining near to below normal
for most unless some breaks can develop towards the afternoon
hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for chances of showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon with the best odds along the southern Blue Ridge.

2) Conditions will remain warm and humid through the remainder of
this week.

A weak frontal boundary should drift southward towards North
Carolina during Thursday night and Friday, while high pressure
passes to the north. A small amount of wedging could occur due to a
light northeast flow on Friday, which would reduce the chance of
thunder around the Lynchburg region by Friday afternoon. However,
areas outside of this weak wedge should obtain enough instability
and lift to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms. The
considerably humid air mass could promote heavy rainfall in any of
the stronger convection that may cause localized flooding.

By Saturday, high pressure should weaken and head off the New
England coast. The frontal boundary across North Carolina could
buckle northward during Saturday afternoon and promote scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the entire region. Of course, the
southern Blue Ridge appears to have the most favorable odds for
convection. Moisture may begin to diminish on Saturday night as
another area of high pressure forms across the Ohio River Valley and
pushes the frontal boundary towards the Southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 120 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is moderate for drier weather on Sunday, but daily
chances of showers and thunderstorm should return afterward.

2) Warm and humid conditions could persist through the middle of
next week.

With high pressure across the Appalachian Mountains on Sunday, it
appears the latter half of the weekend should be the driest.
However, the air mass should remain rather humid going into the new
week. As high pressure weakens on Monday, daily chances of showers
and thunderstorms will return. The odds of more widespread
convection should increase during Tuesday and Wednesday as a frontal
boundary heads southeastward across the Great Lakes and into the
Ohio River Valley. Heavy rainfall from any of the stronger storms
may result in localized flooding concerns. Warm and humid conditions
could persist through the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Wednesday...

Mainly VFR expected this evening but could see some MVFR at
times in the mountains with showers possible at BLF/LWB.
Overnight things dry out but fog and low clouds look to impact
most terminals, with fog more of an issue out in the Piedmont
and low clouds/fog in the mountains. BLF/LWB/BCB have best
chances for IFR and lower, with MVFR/IFR ROA/LYH/DAN.

The ROA/LYH/DAN airports should lift to VFR by 12-14z, while the
mountains may not get to VFR til 16-18z.

Showers/storms will be scattered again Thu afternoon and too low
in probability to have in the tafs for now.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

A front approaches late this week keeping daily threat of
storms around and potential sub-VFR conditions through Saturday.
Front pushes south over the weekend with Sunday looking like the
best aviation day outside of any morning fog. A few storms may
form Monday but overall coverage is scattered.


&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EB/WP
NEAR TERM...EB/WP
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BMG/EB/WP