299
FXUS61 KRNK 080722
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
322 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers end later today, and drier and cooler conditions filter in
through tonight through next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

1) Showers ending this morning, with clouds dissipating towards
the end of the day.

2) Cooler in the mountains.

3) Frost advisory for Greenbrier County late tonight into
Thursday morning.

A deep trough stretching from northeastern Canada down to the TN
Valley will continue shifting over and east of the area today.
This strong push of PVA is steering a cold front through the
region. Current analysis has the front moving through between 6
AM to 2 PM roughly depending on location. Current radar imagery
shows a decent push of moisture moving through areas mainly
north of I-81 along a jet streak. As the upper level and
kinematic energy shift away, showers will gradually diminish
over the mountains later this morning, with lingering rain over
the Piedmont exiting by early afternoon. Additional QPF will be
up to a quarter inch.

Clearing skies are expected from the north by afternoon. The
mountains will see highs below 65 degrees or less as cooler and
drier air encroach (near 100% probabilities support this), while
the Piedmont remains warmer, in the 70s to near 80. The CAA
behind the front will support decent radiational cooling, which
may lead to frost for the mountains overnight, especially for
the Greenbrier Valley. The factor playing against this will be
lingering light northerly winds. Still expect a 50% chance for
parts of the mountains to drop below 36F degrees, supporting
frost. A Frost Advisory has been issued for Greenbrier County,
and concerned parties should bring in sensitive plants.
Elsewhere it will be patchy. Along and east of the Blue Ridge,
lingering boundary layer moisture will keep lows in the 40s
tonight.

Confidence in the near term is high for most parameters, but
moderate for frost occurrence.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1200 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key message:

1) The seasons first frost and freeze potential for areas west
of the Blue Ridge are possible Thursday night into Friday
morning.

Surface high pressure will be building into the Northeast in the
wake of the cold front and associated mid/upper level trough
currently pushing through the area today across the Northeast
and Mid-Atlantic states. As the aforementioned surface high
pressure settles into the Northeast on Thursday, dry air will
get advected into the region, with forecast PWATs under 0.50
inches expected. This will return sunny and dry conditions to
the area through at least Saturday. With cool and dry air
advecting into the region, temperatures will drop to the coolest
of the season thus far, with highs in the low to mid 60s
areawide, and lows at night dropping into the upper 30s to low
40s east of the Blue Ridge, and low to mid 30s west of the Blue
Ridge. This will likely bring the years first widespread frost
and freeze to many locations west of the Blue Ridge, with
portions of SE West Virginia having multiple chances of near to
below freezing temperatures Thursday night into Friday morning,
and Friday night into Saturday morning.

Currently, winds look to remain northeasterly to easterly during
the overnight hours due to the wedge building over the region.
These winds look to remain elevated overnight in the 4-6 mph
range, which would prevent widespread frost from developing;
however, some patchy frost can`t be ruled out, especially across
sheltered areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1200 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key message:

1) Potential coastal low brings questionable weather pattern
next week.

The aforementioned surface high pressure across the Northeast is
expected to slide east into the western Atlantic by Saturday. A
frontal boundary that became stalled along the Carolina and
Georgia coastlines is expected to become a subtropical coastal
low by Saturday. This coastal low may then possibly interact
with a shortwave that may dig south into the Great Lakes region
on Saturday and Sunday. Current cluster analysis of the 500mb
vorticity field currently shows great uncertainty in the path
and trajectory of the shortwave digging south out of Canada.
More ECMWF favored clusters have progressed the shortwave
further east towards the Northeast. This scenario would lead to
minimal interaction with the aforementioned coastal low. More
GEFS favored clusters tend to bring the shortwave south through
the Great Lakes region and into the Ohio valley. This would lead
to more interaction with the coastal low by the late weekend
area. Overall, most solutions don`t bring much rainfall to the
area; however, the GEFS favored clusters do tend to bring more
showers from the shortwave to the mountain locations as is digs
southeastward. Depending on any interaction with the coastal low
and the upper level shortwave trough, the coastal low could go
into the mainland, move along the coast, or stay out into the
ocean. Each of these scenarios have different impacts on
precipitation chances, cloud cover, and wind speed for the
region. These features will be closely monitored for any
potential impacts to the area late in the weekend and into the
early portion of next week. As of right now, the most likely
scenario points towards mostly dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 310 AM EDT Wednesday...

Widespread cloud cover of less than or equal too MVFR conditions
continue this morning in -RA and patchy fog and drizzle. Light
rain showers will dissipate LATER this morning in concurrence
with a frontal passage. Given the modest nature of the rain,
vsby will most likely not be impacted by the rain. Rain should
end late this morning into the early afternoon north to south.
Ceilings lift about the same time.

Wind pattern will see a shift from southwesterly to northerly
along with the cold front`s passage today. Northerly winds will
reach 8-12 kt for most of the region, gusting up to 20 kt in
the upper reaches of the mountains (LWB being most impacted).

Confidence in the above forecast is average.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Extended period of dry weather becoming more likely. This will
result in widespread VFR. With a drier airmass arriving, fog
development should become less of a concern.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ020.
     Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning
     for VAZ020.
NC...None.
WV...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for WVZ507-508.
     Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning
     for WVZ507-508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...EB
LONG TERM...EB
AVIATION...SH