Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
081 FXUS61 KRNK 151719 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 119 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to forecast. Still have lingering cloud cover underneath subsidence inversion along southern Blue Ridge and northwest piedmont of NC. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry through Wednesday, then expect increase of scattered afternoon/evening showers/storms beginning Thursday and continuing through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry through Wednesday, then expect increase of scattered afternoon/evening showers/storms beginning Thursday and continuing through the weekend. High pressure over the region to maintain dry conditions through Wednesday. Shallow layer of moisture remains trapped beneath the subsidence inversion over western NC, so have maintained some low level cloudiness there, otherwise mostly clear skies to be found over much of the region. Dewpoints in the 50s feel nice, but these numbers are not going to persist. Looking at one more pleasant night with temperatures slipping upper 50s to lower 60s, then trending warmer and more humid for the second half of the week as both dewpoints and temperature increase. Temperatures will once again flirt with 90 deg F for daytime highs...summer refusing to release its grip. The upper ridge is currently centered over the TN valley. This feature is forecast to retrograde farther west and become centered over the Arl-La-Tex by the end of the week. This will allow a front over the Great Lakes to sag south over the Mid- Atlantic with increasing moisture leading to a daily chance for showers and a few storms beginning Thursday and persisting through the upcoming weekend. Overall, severe threat remains low given lack of shear to support organized deep convection. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MVFR cloud layer persists along southern Blue Ridge across western NC which extends northeast to near ROA. Models suggest this layer will geographically remain in place through tonight with little or no direct impact to local terminals. Will maintain a SCT-BKN layer of lower cloud vncty of ROA/BCB but the remaining RNK terminals are expected to remain mostly clear. In general expecting VFR from BLF-ROA-LYH northward through Wednesday. Exception will be some late night and early morning river valley fog across the VA/WV highlands with brief impact to LWB for a few hours Wednesday morning. Winds are expected to remain light and variable through the forecast period. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Shower/storm chances start to increase Thu-Sat especially over the mountains, but activity is not expected to be organized and mainly coinciding with the heating of the day. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PM AVIATION...PM