828
FXUS61 KRNK 070047
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
847 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalling frontal boundary slowly pushing into the region
tonight and Saturday will bring daily rain and thunderstorm
chances for much of the area through at least Tuesday before a
stronger cold front passes through the area Tuesday. This cold
front is expected to be followed by surface high pressure, which
should return dry weather to the region through the end of the
work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 830 PM EST Friday...

1) Severe threat likely over for tonight.

2) Additional showers overnight and into tomorrow morning, along
with some fog.

3) Showers and thunderstorms likely tomorrow, but ending earlier.

Scattered convection was still ongoing across parts of NW NC, SW
VA, and SE WV, but for the most part the stronger cells were
moving out of the forecast area. We did have some marginally
severe storms with isolated damaging wind gusts, but the severe
threat is ending quickly with the loss of daytime heating.
Downsloping westerly winds played a large part in tamping down
the severe threat in our area.

Some moderate rain was moving into the western mountains,
associated with storms which occurred earlier in KY. Near term
ensemble guidance shows this activity weakening as it crosses
the Blue Ridge, but additional showers and possibly a few
embedded storms will continue to move out of KY and into our
region overnight and into Saturday morning.

Fog formation is likely where clouds can lift and scatter out a
bit (possible the piedmont), or where rain essentially
saturates enough to bring the clouds to the ground (parts of
WV).


As of 100 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Multiple rounds of showers and possibly strong to severe
   thunderstorms possible Saturday.
2) Low clouds and Fog could linger through midday for many
   on Saturday.

Saturday`s forecast continues to bring some question marks with
it as timing of convection tonight and overnight will play a
large role in the afternoon and evening development of
thunderstorms across the area on Saturday. The passage of an
upper level shortwave during the late overnight and early
morning hours on Saturday may also lead to lingering cloud
debris from a dying MCS that is currently located across OK/AR.
Most CAM guidance seems to keep around this lingering cloud
debris from the aforementioned MCS, and light shower activity
through the mid morning hours. This will essentially scuttle any
meaningful development of instability across the area by
Saturday afternoon, that storm coverage and intensity may be on
the light side compared to what was initially expected. Current
mean HREF guidance has around 500-1000 J/Kg of SBCAPE for a
majority of the area Saturday through the peak heating, with the
Piedmont and northern NC closer to that 1000 J/Kg level. While
this may deplete chances for storm development across most areas
north of the VA/NC border, there is a chance that NW North
Carolina and the NC Piedmont may have some severe storm threat
late Saturday as a mid to upper level vorticity maxima
traversing into either SW Virginia/western NC per the GFS or
central Tennessee per the ECMWF by 00Z could bring this chance
of storm development if the GFS solution were to occur. If the
GFS` solution does occur where this mid level feature arrives
faster in the evening, it may be able to take advantage of an
area that may not have dealt with lingering cloud debris and
remnant outflow boundaries across northern North Carolina.

With The uncertainty in overnight and early morning cloud debris
from remnant thunderstorms, this will directly effect
temperatures across the area, with wide ranges possible for
Saturday. Areas west of the Blue Ridge are expected to see highs
in the mid to upper 70s, but pockets could see highs in the low
70s if cloud cover lingers. Areas east of the Blue Ridge are
expected to see temperatures in the low to mid 80s, with a
greater chance of seeing breaks in the clouds throughout the
day. Lows Saturday morning will generally start in the low to
mid 60s west of the Blue Ridge, and mid to upper 60s east of the
Blue Ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for chances of showers and thunderstorms
continuing into early next week.

2) Temperatures will stay above normal during this period.

An unsettled weather pattern will persist through the remainder
of the weekend and into early next week. Several upper level
shortwave troughs should spiral eastward across the Ohio River
Valley. With plentiful heat and moisture available, chances of
showers and thunderstorms will continue during this time period.
The models hint at one of these shortwave troughs crossing the
Appalachian Mountains on Sunday to focus more lift for
convection. A marginal risk of severe weather exists for Sunday
afternoon and evening due to notable instability present in the
model soundings.

After a brief lull in convective activity during Sunday night
into early Monday, more showers and thunderstorms may develop
across the mountains towards Monday evening and Monday night as
another upper level shortwave trough approaches from the west.
Details remain too murky in the models to offer an idea on the
potential for severe weather risk during Monday evening.
However, temperatures may rise a few degrees on Monday with most
locations witnessing highs in the 80s, which could offer more
instability available for any storms. Overall, temperatures will
stay above normal during this period.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 120 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is moderate for more chances of showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday.

2) High pressure may bring drier conditions during Wednesday and
Thursday north of Route 460.

Tuesday may continue the chances of showers and thunderstorms as
an upper level shortwave trough crosses over the Appalachian
Mountains. A cold front will shove the moisture southward by
Wednesday but stall somewhere across the Southeast, while high
pressure builds across northern Virginia. Drier conditions may
take hold north of Route 460 during Wednesday and Thursday, but
locations to the south still might face a low chance of showers
and thunderstorms each afternoon. By Friday, high pressure to
the north could weaken and allow the stalled frontal boundary to
edge closer to North Carolina and spark a higher chance of
afternoon convection. Temperatures should remain near to above
normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 835 PM EDT Friday...

Terminals were VFR currently, but lingering -TSRA/-SHRA were
affecting all area terminals except for BCB and ROA. As night
falls, expect a prolonged period of MVFR to LIFR CIGs and
VSBYs in fog and more waves of SHRA at most if not all
terminals, with improvement after 13Z. After that, expect
periods of MVFR conditions in SHRA/TSRA. Most of the TS will
occur between 16Z and 22Z Saturday. Restrictions should improve
in the late afternoon and evening Saturday from NW to SE.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Daily chances of morning rain showers from lingering
thunderstorm activity pushing into the area combined with
daily chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will lead
to high chances for sub-VFR conditions on Sunday, Monday and
Tuesday before a much stronger cold front pushes into the area
and high pressure returns by Wednesday. This will bring the
return of VFR conditions at nearly all terminals. With moisture
lingering in the area through the end of the weekend and into
the beginning of the work week, valley fog and low CIGs look
possible as well each morning.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EB
NEAR TERM...EB/SH
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...EB/SH