808
FXUS61 KRNK 230600
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
100 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will cover the area today and Monday, then a weak cold
front crosses the Mid Atlantic on Tuesday, but the weather will
remain dry. A stronger cold front will cross the region on Thursday,
bringing a chance for rain, and leading in colder air for the end of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 100 AM EST Sunday...

Key message:

     - Tranquil weather today and tonight

Mid level clouds that were associated with a short wave that crossed
west to east across North Carolina Saturday evening had almost
dissipated. Little additional cloud cover is expected today, but mid
and high clouds fill in across the area tonight. Stayed close to NBM
for high temperatures today, which will be slightly warmer than
temperatures on Saturday. Leaned toward cooler guidance for lows
tonight, but temperatures will depend on how fast clouds cover the
area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1250 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for dry weather with the lone exception being
western Greenbrier County on Tuesday.

2) Temperatures will rise above normal in a notable warming trend.

Dry conditions will persist through Monday as high pressure heads
offshore. A southwest breeze should aid in warm air advection to
push temperatures about five to ten degrees above normal for this
time of year. By Tuesday, a weak shortwave trough will cross the
Great Lakes. With the flow turning towards the west, this downslope
flow will make it difficult for any moisture to extend southward.
Only a slight chance of rain showers exists for western Greenbrier
County on Tuesday, but all other locations should stay dry and
experience additional warmth with afternoon highs jumping into the
60s east of the Blue Ridge. High pressure should pass to the south
on Wednesday to keep the warming trend intact, but clouds will
increase by Wednesday night as a cold front approaches from the
west. Light rain may reach the mountains before daybreak.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1250 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is increasing for rain starting early Thursday, and
mountain snow showers may follow on Thursday night.

2) Temperatures should dip lower on Friday but moderate by
Saturday once high pressure returns.

A cold front will cross the Appalachian Mountains on Thursday to
bring light rain. Because the associated upper level trough is
positively tilted, it does not appear to be a significant rainfall
event. However, colder air will arrive after the frontal passage as
the flow turns toward the northwest. While locations east of the
Blue Ridge should become drier during Thursday night, mountain snow
showers may develop along a line from Boone to Lewisburg. This
upslope moisture may linger into Friday before fading by the evening
once the northwest flow weakens. High pressure returns by Saturday
to provide drier weather and to allow the air mass to moderate.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 100 AM EST Sunday...

Prevailing VFR conditions are forecast for the 24 hour valid
TAF.

Mid level clouds that were associated with a short wave that crossed
west to east across North Carolina Saturday evening had almost
dissipated. Little additional cloud cover is expected today, but mid
and high clouds fill in across the area this evening.

Winds will be mainly from the west once mixing begins today.
Wind speeds remain less than 10 mph.


.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Dry weather and VFR flight conditions are expected through
early Wednesday. Wind flow gradually becomes more southwest.

Thursday is the next opportunity for precipitation in the
region. MVFR ceilings are possible in the mountains Wednesday
night and Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 100 AM EST Sunday...

Based on the expected weather, Monday through Wednesday should
have windows of opportunity for burning, especially for grass
fuels. In general expecting weather that should support early
spring burn plans...light wind, mild temperatures and low
afternoon humidity.

As a reminder for non-federal and non-state land managers,
please be mindful of local and state laws. States, such as VA,
have burn laws. Virginia`s 4PM Burning Law prohibits open-air
burning before 4PM from February 15th through April 30th. The
law applies to fires within 300 feet of dry grass or woodland
areas.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...AMS
FIRE WEATHER...AMS/PM