Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
938 FXUS61 KRNK 102330 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 730 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation forecast update. Lowered PoPs and reduced thunder tonight. Severe/flooding threat is over. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showery and stormy pattern continues through Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Showery and stormy pattern continues through Saturday night. Early evening update reflects less coverage of showers/storms per radar trends and mesoanalysis reflects better convergence across the lower Ohio Valley. A front and upper forcing may arrive toward Friday morning giving the WV mountains some shower chances, but looks like tonight is going to be dry for most. Previous discussion... Bermuda high pressure continues to weaken over the Mid Atlantic region today and through the weekend. This opens the door for a more active pattern of weather including numerous chances for showers and thunderstorms as mid level troughing dips into the area from the north. A cold front was situated over the OH Valley and continued to shift slowly south. A swath of mid level energy was helping to trigger numerous showers across KY, WV, and parts of northern VA. Some of this activity will reach the mountains of SW VA this afternoon and into the overnight hours, however the better forcing for ascent still remains to our north for the afternoon. CAMs show repeated rounds of rain develop and move east ahead of and along the front which will essentially stall near or just north of the WV/VA border overnight. Expecting most of the heavier rainfall to be just north of our forecast area, but repeated moderate rainfall may occur over the Greenbrier Valley and perhaps part of the southern Shenandoah Valley along the front where moisture convergence will be maximized. These are the most likely spots for any flooding issues through the overnight hours. Overall the severe threat looks low and we remain in a Marginal Risk per SPC, with damaging winds the main concern with any stronger cells. The front will continue to slowly move south through the forecast area tomorrow before stalling in the Carolinas. Expect heavier and more concentrated activity near and along the Blue Ridge with the front in the area tomorrow afternoon and evening. We should see higher rainfall rates and an increased chance for training storms possibly leading to urban and flash flooding. With so much cloud cover, only weaker storms are expected. A large batch of rain is in store for Saturday afternoon and evening areawide, as a southern stream short wave approaches and lifts the front north. Most of this activity should shift east of the area by midnight. Again we will mainly be concerned with a flooding threat, especially where we receive higher rainfall amounts tonight and tomorrow. Sunday through Tuesday look quieter with mostly dry weather, and this quiet stretch may even last longer than that. We will see a similar set up with a slow-moving, strung out front to our north for mid week into the end of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR through the period. Exception to this will be some fog/low stratus potential later tonight. Confidence is moderate on fog but cloud cover will dictate fog coverage. Am leaning toward mainly tempo MVFR to IFR fog over most sites, with a 50/50 chance of 1/2sm at LWB. Should see more clouds Friday with the frontal boundary with some uptick in shower chances. Higher chances are expected across the ROA/BCB area so have VCTS in there in the afternoon. Winds should be less than 10kts tonight into Friday outside any storms. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Expect more showers and storms developing Saturday and Saturday night as the front lifts through as a warm front. Most of the rain should end by 13/03Z or very early Sunday morning. Widespread sub-VFR conditions in periods of moderate to heavy rain, low clouds, and some fog are expected with the system. Winds may be gusty and erratic near thunderstorms. Drier, VFR weather is anticipated for Monday and Tuesday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SH/WP AVIATION...SH/WP