911
FXUS61 KRNK 011857
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
257 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front extends from western Pennsylvania to central
Tennessee. This front will move east triggering numerous
showers and thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic states.
Storms may contain torrential downpours and gusty winds.
Slightly cooler and less humid air will move into the region by
Thursday, followed by a seasonally warm but pleasant holiday
weekend. No rain is expected over the 4th of July weekend, but
it looks like the typical summertime daily afternoon
thunderstorm pattern returns for next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

1) Severe thunderstorm watch #481 valid until 9PM from
Bedford,Lynchburg,Appomattox northward into NoVA.

2) Numerous coverage of storms through this evening. Some will
be strong to severe with wind and torrential downpours.

3) Wednesday will be a transition day with lingering showers
and potential for a few storms, but drier air will be moving in
from the northwest.

Water-vapor imagery this afternoon indicates an upper trough
moving east across the Great Lakes/lower OH Valley. This feature
will cross the Appalachians this evening...preceded by an
abundance of moisture and dynamic lift. In the low levels, a
cold front analyzed over the southern Great Lakes into the lower
OH Valley/Mid South will gradually progress east/southeast
crossing our forecast area tonight.

Convective allowing models indicate prolific development of
prefrontal showers and storms through this evening. Best shear
will stay north of us where storms will be more organized, but
an abundance of low level moisture will support robust deep
convection even into the southern Appalachians where strong to
severe storms are also possible, but more pulsey in nature.
All storm modes will support potential for damaging winds,
torrential downpours of rain, and lightning.

The front enters the mountains this evening, then slows as it
crosses the mountains and then drifts to the coast Wednesday.
This will result in lingering showers through the overnight with
some potential for storm redevelopment Wednesday afternoon mainly
along and east of the Blue Ride. Dry air aloft should gradually
advect into the area during the day, so expect activity to
diminish fairly quickly Wednesday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

1) Surface pressure system to bring clear and warm conditions

The latter half of the week is expected to be warm but relatively
pleasant in comparison to the recent weather pattern of daily
afternoon thunderstorms. A surface high pressure will move in from
central CONUS and bring in a period of sunny skies. An upper level
ridge will also build and temperatures will increase with region
wide highs in the 80s. Highest temperatures, as expected, will be in
the Piedmont regions with temperatures reaching close to 90F.
Dewpoints will be a little lower in the 60s so the air will feel a
little drier as well. Overall, good outdoor weather conditions for
Fourth of July celebrations.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

1) Hot weather to return next week

A piece of the surface high pressure system passing through the
weekend will remain over the Mid-Atlantic but will gradually
diminish in strength by early next week. Broad ridging may also
remain in place with 590dam heights to bring hot temperatures
back into the area. High temperatures are projected to be up to
the mid- 90s for the Piedmont and Southside VA. A cold front
looks to arrive early next week, but there is a lot of model
disagreement on its exact timing, its impact to the region, and
what follows next.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Tuesday...

Unsettled weather likely this afternoon and evening as a cold
front crosses the the region preceded and accompanied by
numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms.

Showers and storms will likely impact most if not all taf sites
during the afternoon, leading to sub-VFR flight conditions at
times. Some storms could produce gusty winds of 25-35 knots but
most of the time winds will be southwest to west under 15kts.
Showers/storms will be decreasing overnight with potential for
IFR to LIFR cigs with MVFR to IFR vsbys. Confidence is low on
how low cigs will go but higher confidence on sub-VFR conditions
after midnight local time.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Passage of a cold front will bring bring drier conditions back
to the region for Wednesday and Thursday. VFR conditions are
expected outside of morning valley fog Wednesday through next
weekend, with only isolated chances for showers and
thunderstorms expected late in the week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...PM