Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
361 FXUS61 KRNK 241737 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 137 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation forecast updated. No major changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Several chances for rain this weekend into next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Several chances for rain this weekend into next week. Satellite imagery shows a large swath of moisture stretching from the southern Plains towards the Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic regions. Showery activity over the Mid Atlantic was coincident with saturation below 12kft on this morning`s KFCX sounding. Flow from 925 mb to about 850mb was from the SE, while surface winds were more ENE where high pressure was wedging in. The weak isentropic upglide of higher specific humidity air will continue to support drizzle and showers. Storms are extremely unlikely, as this is more of a wintertime stratiform set up, so have removed them from the forecast. Moderate rain is possible in upslope locations. Overnight, additional short wave energy will keep the rain going. On Saturday, another short wave pushes through and will bring scattered showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm mainly to points along and east of the Blue Ridge. To the west, drier air will be slowly filtering in and will limit rainfall. On Sunday and Monday, convection looks limited again with drier air in place, so most folks should see a break. NW flow aloft brings another round of energy through late Monday night into Tuesday, with a strong cold front moving through sometime late Tuesday into early Wednesday. After that, we should get another break from daily rain chances for at least a couple days. We are outlooked for both a 15% chance of severe weather from SPC on Day 5 (Tuesday), as well as a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall from WPC with the cold frontal passage. UCAR`s medium range convective model is also highlighting Tuesday for a severe weather threat, which would consist of damaging winds and heavy rain possibly leading to flash flooding. After today, we should see a gradual warm up over the weekend. Temperatures reach the low 80s for most mountain locations by Monday, and mid to upper 80s for the Piedmont and Roanoke regions. Even a few low 90s are possible early next week in gusty WSW surface flow for Roanoke and the Piedmont areas. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Area TAF sites ranged from IFR to VFR this afternoon, with easterly flow and isentropic lift keeping stratus and drizzle around. This activity continues through the overnight, with more widespread showers later this afternoon and evening. Less widespread showers tomorrow, but low ceilings and light easterly flow continue east of the Blue Ridge. To the west, ceilings will gradually lift and scatter out but it will occur late, possibly after 25/18Z. Winds there will be light and from the WNW. Fog and drizzle are likely tomorrow morning once again, with more scatters showers and perhaps an isolated storm, mainly east of the Blue Ridge. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Sunday and Monday look mostly dry, with light WNW winds with the occasional gust to 15 kts. Monday night into Tuesday, an upper system and a cold front cross the area, bringing widespread moderate to heavy rainfall and sub-VFR conditions. Tuesday has the highest potential for strong thunderstorms. Mountain valley fog/low stratus will also be possible each night/early morning. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SH AVIATION...SH