725
FXUS61 KRNK 121509
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1009 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather will continue today and tonight with periods
of rain or freezing rain. Temperatures will be slow to warm due
to the abundance of cloud cover and precipitation. A front will
finally cross the region Thursday, bringing the precipitation to
an end, skies clearing Thursday afternoon, with dry but breezy
weather Thursday night and Friday. Wet weather returns for the
weekend with potential for mixed wintry precipitation Saturday
morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1000 AM EST Wednesday...

Currently within a lull in precipitation this morning with only
pockets of drizzle/freezing drizzle and light rain. Temperatures
across Southside Virginia and the North Carolina Piedmont are
gradually creeping above freezing, thus not expecting any
additional widespread icing to occur. However, temperatures
along the Blue Ridge and west from NW NC and into the the
southern Shenandoah Valley still remain below freezing. Taking a
look at probabilistic guidance gives high confidence much of
the Blue Ridge, New River Valley and north into the Alleghany
Highlands will remain at or below freezing for the remainder of
the day. Temperatures finally rise above freezing late tonight,
transitioning to all locations to just rain. Adjusted additional
ice accumulations, with the highest along the Blue Ridge from
southern Virginia through Peaks of Otter. A few of these areas
could receive an additional four tenths of an inch of ice.
Slightly lesser amounts away from the Blue Ridge in the New
River Valley and into the Alleghany Highlands, but still could
potentially see additional amounts here up to three tenths of an
inch. Will assess the need for an extension to the current
headlines to account for freezing rain persisting into the
overnight hours.



As of 400 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Potential for lingering wintry precipitation today and
tonight.

2) Rain will be the primary precipitation type with freezing
rain persisting where temperatures remain near or below
freezing.

3) Significant amounts of icing possible along the Blue Ridge.


Will maintain winter weather warnings/advisories this morning,
then regroup with potential for new headlines later today and
tonight.

Rain continues mainly east of the Blue Ridge this morning with
freezing rain the primary p-type. A lull in precip has take
place west of the Blue Ridge, but look for renewal of precip
production this afternoon as another wave of low pressure
impacts the region from the west. Concern next 24 hours will be
potential to add additional icing to areas where trees are
already heavy laden. Easterly adiabatic cooling is expected to
persist along the Blue Ridge and into the VA Highlands and this
will be the area to watch for additional ice accretions today
and tonight. Elsewhere, temperatures should creep up a few
degrees ending the widespread threat for additional wintry
impacts, but flip side to warming temperatures is snow/ice melt.
There is a marginal risk for flooding the next 24 hours where
additional rainfall combined with snowmelt may result in
stream/river rises. A flood watch may be needed.

In general, expecting a cloudy day. Rain ongoing across
southside VA and into NC will continue through the day,
eventually spreading north as isentropic lift increases ahead of
the next wave of low pressure. Temperatures for most, will
remain in the 30s. Readings in the 40s/50s may creep into far
western VA as warm air moves north from the TN Valley. Think the
Appalachian Divide will limit any eastward progression, the
shallow cold wedge hanging tuff east of the Divide. In spite of
this, temperatures will warm aloft with readings near +5 to +8
degrees C at 85H (5000 feet above MSL) by the end of the day.
Some of the NC high country and Mt. Rogers may poke up into
this warmer airmass. This will ensure all p-type going forward
will be rain except for aforementioned areas where shallow cold
wedge lingers permitting freezing rain. Models also hint at some
instability over the TN valley, so not out of the question to
get some thunderstorm activity to our southwest which may
tease our NC mountain zones tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Frontal passage Thursday

2) Dry, cold, breezy Thursday night and Friday

Gusty northwest winds expected Thursday after the passage of an
early morning cold front. Rain associated with the front is
progged to come to an end early in the day followed by afternoon
clearing and increasing winds. Wind gusts 20-30 mph are expected
for the afternoon, associated with cold air advection which will
bring temperatures down for Thursday night and Friday... low
temperatures Thursday night ranging from the teens in the
mountains to the 20s in the piedmont.

Friday will be a dry but cold as high pressure passes over
head...afternoon high temperatures ranging from the 30s
mountains to the mid 40s piedmont. Any drying will be short
lived as clouds increase Friday night ahead of our next storm
system. Cold temperatures will support a wintry form of precip
if moisture arrives prior to daybreak Saturday. Models hold most
of the deeper moisture to areas west of I-77 prior to daybreak
Saturday, but do have a chance for freezing rain there after
midnight Friday night. The weekend system looks like it is going
to pull in warm air aloft, so the p-type if anything other than
rain, looks to be freezing rain or sleet at the onset.
Temperatures Friday night are expected to dip into the 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) A strong system moves into the area for the weekend, bringing
heavy rain and possibly some light icing along/west of the Blue
Ridge.

2) Below average temperatures are expected early next week.

Strong high pressure will begin to move offshore early Saturday, but
will wedge in across the area. The flow around the high will provide
moisture advection into the Ohio River Valley which will move
eastward into our area on Saturday. With this setup, yet another
chance of light freezing rain will be possible, though models do not
agree on the strength and orientation of the cold air wedge. The
ECMWF remains much warmer, keeping the p-type as all rain, while the
GFS has a 6 hour window of moderate icing across the northern half
of the CWA. The reality is likely somewhere in between, with the
Blue Ridge and locations north of US-460 seeing the best chance of
light ice accumulation from freezing rain. By mid-afternoon
Saturday, the cold air wedge erodes fully, with rain expected area-
wide. The rain will be heavy at times, as a low develops in the Ohio
Valley, with support from an upper-level longwave trough. Scattered
showers continue into Sunday before the main cold front arrives
around midday.

By Sunday evening, much colder air fills in behind the system, with
strong northwest flow leading to snow showers along the western
facing slopes into Monday. Winds will also be strong along/west of
the Blue Ridge, with gusts of 40+mph at times. High pressure ridges
into the area on Monday, keeping dry and quiet conditions through
late Tuesday when the next system arrives, which could lead to
another wintry mix of precipitation for the middle of next week.

High temperatures for the weekend will be in the 40s/50s, with a few
60s possible in the eastern Piedmont on Sunday ahead of the front.
Colder air behind the front will cause highs to drop into the
30s/40s for early next week. Lows will be mild Sunday morning with
the southwesterly WAA, mainly in the 40s. Behind the front,
teens/20s will return for the area each morning through midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 500 AM EST Wednesday...

Poor aviation conditions through Thursday morning.

IFR to LIFR restrictions are expected to continue through the
entire TAF period for all terminals today and tonight. Freezing
rain or drizzle look to continue today near the Blue Ridge,
impacting LYH/ROA/LWB. Warming temperatures should bring BLF and
DAN above 32 degrees today. Rain continues to fall mainly east
of the mountains this morning and is relatively light in
intensity. The rain intensity is expected to increase this
afternoon and evening as another wave of low pressure approaches
from the west.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Unsettled weather will continue through early Thursday,
resulting in widespread sub-VFR. A front will cross the area
Thursday morning bringing an end to the precipitation followed
by dry high pressure and breezy conditions Thursday afternoon
into Friday. VFR conditions are expected Friday, but another
system arrives for the weekend resulting in another round of
sub-VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for VAZ007-
     009>020-022-032-033.
     Winter Storm Warning until noon EST today for VAZ023-024-034-
     035-043>047-058-059.
NC...Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ001-
     002-018.
     Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for NCZ003>006-
     019-020.
WV...Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...BMG/PM
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...PM