Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
567 FXUS61 KRNK 042008 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 408 PM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... One frontal boundary shifts east this evening, with a lull in activity for Friday. Another front arrives Saturday. High pressure and cooler air is expected to push into the region behind the front on Saturday, which will last into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Thursday... Key Message: 1) Strong line of storms will exit this afternoon. 2) Morning fog Friday will give way to mostly sunny skies and breezy conditions through the afternoon. The main line of storms should exit the forecast area between 4pm-530pm. Lingering showers and few storms still possible into the evening over the mountains. Previous discussion... Expect generally dry conditions areawide for Friday. Winds will be gusty through the afternoon hours. Highs will be in the upper 80s east of the Blue Ridge and upper 70s to low 80s west of the Blue Ridge. The aforementioned southwest winds ahead of the frontal boundary will lead to downslope enhancement of temperatures for the Piedmont, with a few locations possibly reaching 90 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 125 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: 1) A strong cold front moves through Saturday, with severe weather possible. 2) Warm temperatures Saturday drop dramatically behind the front for Sunday. Friday night will remain mostly quiet, at least initially, as a strong cold front will be draped across the Ohio Valley off to our northwest. This begins to move into our area early Saturday morning, with rain chances increasing for the western mountains. The front will also have support from an upper level trough, which will aid in lift as it moves through the area in the afternoon. The Piedmont could see severe weather during peak heating hours of the afternoon due to these factors. Damaging winds will be the main threat. The storms will be moving quickly enough that flash flooding is unlikely, but heavy rainfall will still be expected in the heaviest convection. By Saturday night, the front pushes east, though lingering showers will persist into Sunday morning. Sunday afternoon looks to be mostly dry as the front will be off to our east, but isolated showers/storms remain possible as a low pressure develops around eastern Virginia. All convection clears out by Sunday night, as a large high pressure in the northern Great Plains builds into the area, ushering in much drier air for next week. Rainfall totals will not be excessive, with most areas receiving at least 0.10" of rainfall, and higher amounts west of the Blue Ridge, up to 0.50". Locally higher amounts are also possible. The weekend temperatures will be two different seasons, with our area ahead of the front Saturday being quite warm, with highs in the 80s to low 90s for the Piedmont. The western mountains will stay in the 70s as rainfall moves in earlier in the day. Behind the front on Sunday, highs only reach the mid 60s for the mountains, with mid 70s in the Piedmont. Overnight lows also change with the FROPA, as Saturday morning will be in the 60s area-wide, before falling into the 40s/50s by Monday morning. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 125 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: 1) High pressure builds in with quiet weather for the entire period. 2) Below normal temperatures remain consistent through late week. A large, strong high pressure system will encompass the entire Eastern CONUS next week, as it builds into the area late Sunday into Monday and wedge down east of the Appalachians. This will keep our area very quiet, thanks to dry air aloft and a zonal pattern at the upper-levels. No precipitation is expected for the entire week through Thursday. Combined with below normal temperatures, fall-like weather will continue across the area. By Thursday, the wedge does begin to weaken, and pull out of the area, and an upper level trough does swing down just north of the Mid-Atlantic. However, dry air will keep convection suppressed, with no rain chances each day. Temperatures will be consistently below normal, though they will rise a few degrees by the end of the week. Highs will be in the 60s for the mountains early next week, before reaching around 70 mid to late week. The Piedmont will start out in the mid 70s and reach near 80 late week. Overnight lows do the same, with widespread 40s Monday and Tuesday mornings, increasing to area-wide 50s late week. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Thursday... Storms will impact LYH/DAN through 22z, then should be a fairly quiet this evening/overnight. Could see some IFR fog at LWB/BCB and potentially other tafs sites late tonight depending on winds. Any fog gives way to VFR by 14z Friday. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Southwest winds will be gusty Friday afternoon. Otherwise A second front will arrive on Saturday, producing another round of scattered showers/storms. Drier air arrives Sunday into early next week as high pressure returns to the region, resulting in mainly VFR conditions outside any late night fog. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EB/WP NEAR TERM...EB/WP SHORT TERM...JCB LONG TERM...JCB AVIATION...EB/NF/WP