781
FXUS61 KRNK 030953
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
553 AM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to provide warm and dry weather
through Wednesday. Rain chances increase by Thursday and
unsettled weather will likely continue into early next week
with a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 215 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

1) Dry weather continues, along with increasingly warmer
temperatures.

Upper ridging continues to build over the southeast United
States through tonight. High pressure overhead this morning will
slide east into the Atlantic, resulting in southwest flow across
the region. Should see a marginal increase in dew points, but
still should remain comfortable for June standards. Highs this
afternoon in the low to mid 80s, cooling into the mid to upper
50s tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) A chance of showers towards the weekend

2) Warming trend continues

A small high pressure system will be over the Mid-Atlantic for the
first half of this forecast period. Its pressure center will keep
skies clear and winds calm for the middle of the week before a
frontal system approaches from the northwest. There is still some
model disagreement on the specifics of this front. but it looks to
stall around Thursday and possibly move through by the weekend.
Cloud cover will start to build up, but shower and thunderstorm
chances are expected to rise by Friday as a subtle perturbation
passes through the region. To complicate the forecast, a weak low
pressure system looks to develop over the Carolina coast. Some
models disagree on how inland this system goes which is dependent on
the cold front`s trajectory. If the front stalls further from the
area, the Carolina system could move more inland. The other scenario
is the front stalls closer to the Mid-Atlantic or approaches quicker
than anticipated and the Carolina system remains along the coast.
Current potential impacts from the Carolina system would be
concentrated to the more southeastern counties of the region if
it were to be more inland.

One thing the forecast is confident in is the warming trend, which
will bring regional high temperatures into the 80s. The
Piedmont will, unsurprisingly, experience the warmest
temperatures with some locations reaching close to 90 degrees
late in the week. Dew points will fluctuate between 50-60
degrees and PWATs will increase region-wide to 1-1.5 inches.
With the approaching perturbation, widespread showers and
thunderstorms are possible in the latter half of the week.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

1) Frontal systems to bring chances of precipitation during the
weekend and early next week

A cold front is forecast to pass through the area this weekend,
though timing specifics are still up in the air. When the front
moves through, winds will pick up and will gust to 10-20 mph with
stronger gusts at higher elevations. While CAPE and shear may be
available when the front arrives, general thunderstorms and showers
are currently the most likely weather scenario. Some machine
learning models have suggested a small severe weather threat, but it
is too early to be confident of any potential hazards.

Generally speaking, model guidance suggests a brief quiet period
before another frontal system arrives early next week to provide the
region another round of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 550 AM EDT Tuesday...

Widespread VFR is expected for the current 24 hour TAF period.
Mostly clear skies through tonight with no chance of
precipitation. Winds calm this morning will gradually increase
from the south late this morning and into the evening...10kts
or less. Mostly calm winds expected again tonight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Expecting VFR through much of the upcoming week, though cannot
rule out some nocturnal valley fog at KLWB/KBCB. Could see some
sub-VFR due to showers/storms late in the week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...BMG