403
FXUS61 KRNK 181800
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will shift south into North Carolina today, becoming
nearly stationary into Tuesday. Another front arrives Wednesday
and lingers in the region into Thursday, while Hurricane Erin
moves north east of the Atlantic seaboard. A stronger front
passes across the area Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 105 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1. A cold front tracks south across the area tonight.
2. Cloudy and cool Tuesday

High pressure will wedge south into North Carolina tonight,
then stalls. Winds will become easterly with dew points in the
mid 60s to lower 70s, light showers are possible along the Blue
Ridge this afternoon and evening. Shower activity will fade late
this evening, but low clouds and/or fog is likely along and
east of the Blue Ridge overnight. The Theta-E boundary remains
across Pennsylvania today then drops south into northern
Virginia Tuesday. Shower activity should be similar to today,
mainly along the Blue Ridge.

High temperatures this afternoon will run in the 80s with the
warmest area (upper 80s) being east of the Blue Ridge and south
of Highway 460. Uniform high temperatures Tuesday with readings
in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EDT Monday...

Key messages:

1) Hurricane Erin not expected to impact the region.

2) Daily shower and thunderstorm chances for Wednesday and
Thursday.

A shortwave vorticity maxima over the eastern Great Lakes
region late Tuesday night that rode over the top of the western
conus ridge will bring a frontal boundary into the area by late
Wednesday evening. This frontal boundary will be the main driver
that pulls Hurricane Erin out into the central Atlantic later
in the work week, and over the weekend. While winds will
briefing transition to out of the northwest, especially for
areas west of the Blue Ridge, the larger pressure gradient force
from hurricane Erin while hundreds of miles away from the area
will be able to quickly transition winds back to the northeast
for the entire area as Erin recurves into the North Atlantic.
This northeast wind will advect lower moisture air from the
Northeast and southeastern Canada into the region. This will
lead to slightly more pleasant dewpoints across the area in the
low to mid 60s through the end of the work week. While dry air
is advected into the region late in the work week, as the
frontal boundary aforementioned to enter the region on Wednesday
pushes into the area, scattered thunderstorms are expected for
areas primarily west of the Blue Ridge Wednesday and Thursday
afternoons. The greatest chances will especially be in NW North
Carolina, where northeasterly upslope flow on Thursday will
enhance any storms that develop across this region. By Friday,
enough dry air is expected to be advected into the region that
shower and thunderstorm activity should remain isolated in
nature.

Temperatures will predominantly remain near normal, with highs
in the upper 70s to low 80s west of the Blue Ridge, and low to
mid 80s east of the Blue Ridge Wednesday through Friday.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Monday...

Key message:

1) Cold front looks to push through the region over the weekend
bringing much cooler and drier weather into early next week.

By this weekend Hurricane Erin is expected to be well away from
the Conus and continuing into the North Atlantic. A much deeper
upper level trough is expected to push into the upper Great
Lakes region, which will reduce the amplitude of the upper level
ridge over the western conus, which will effectively lead to
upper level troughing over the Northeast and Mid Atlantic
states. This trough and associated upper level low will push an
early season cold front through the area late in the weekend.
This cold front looks to bring noticeably lower dewpoints in the
low to mid 50s across the area. High temperatures should
similarly cool across the region, with highs currently forecast
in the low to mid 70s during the day, with lows at night in the
mid 50s. Ahead of the frontal passage on Saturday, scattered
showers and thunderstorms can be expected as moisture is pulled
north ahead of the front. The dry air post front will limit
shower and thunderstorm activity on Sunday and Monday as the
regions first taste of Fall like temperatures make their way
into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 115 PM EDT Monday...

VFR cumulus field expected with light showers forming along the Blue
Ridge this afternoon. These showers will fade this evening, then
clouds lower below VFR with fog possible in mountain river valleys
overnight. Since winds will remain easterly and moisture sticks
around through Tuesday, light rain/drizzle will mainly be along the
eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Sub-VFR cigs are likely into Wednesday along/east of the Blue Ridge.

Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be
possible each each afternoon and evening Thursday into Friday.
Patchy fog will redevelop each night, particularly across the
mountain river valleys.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...EB
LONG TERM...EB
AVIATION...RCS