757
FXUS61 KRNK 302310
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
710 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation Forecast Updated.



&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Return of showers and thunderstorms late this weekend into
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Return of showers and thunderstorms late this
weekend into next week.

Enjoy the clear skies while it lasts as rain and thunderstorms are
likely to return as early as Saturday night. A mid-level low will
pass through the northern Great Plains and swoop southeastward and
head towards the Appalachians. The big picture is that this system
will likely provide strong southwesterly winds and advect warm and
moist air into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. (Dew points may
return into the 60s and 70s by the weekend). Model guidance
exhibit a robust transport of vorticity through the region for
the first half of next week while this low persists.
Unfortunately, models then start to disagree on how this low
evolves. A possible scenario is the low dips so southward that
it decouples itself from the mean flow and remains stagnant over
the eastern half of the United States. Another suggested
scenario is that part of the low cuts off but has some of its
energy pulled away northeast by a stronger trough in Canada. The
main concern of this forecast is whether the low decides to
detach itself or not. If it does, confidence of several rounds
of showers and thunderstorms for our area will increase. While
the severe threat looks to be on the lower side due to lapse
rates of 5.0-5.5 C/km, there is a flood concern for next week.
The Weather Prediction Center has already issued a Marginal Risk
for parts of the area on Sunday and Monday, but it is currently
too early to know how much rain we may get and what the
potential impacts may be. Lastly, because models tend to
struggle with cutoff lows and the already present discrepancies,
the forecast for the latter half of next week is unclear.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR through the period. Exception may be fog at LWB, but the
last two nights have not produced fog after the rain, and with
drier air in place and still a flow from the northwest,
confidence is low on dense fog, so have tempo 3sm with this
forecast in the 9-12z time frame. Winds will be light/calm
through the period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR into early Saturday night. Another active weather pattern
will bring all airports potential for sub-VFR starting Saturday
night through the first half of next week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CG/WP
AVIATION...CG/WP