Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
222 FXUS61 KRNK 120611 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 211 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system tracking along the Atlantic coastline will spread rain east of the Blue Ridge today night before it shifts further north. A dry front tracks across from the northwest Tuesday followed by high pressure. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 200 AM EDT Sunday... Key Message: 1) A cloudy day with rain for areas well east of the Blue Ridge. The southern Appalachians remains caught between low pressure off the Carolinas` Coast and a compact low pressure system over NY State. Expect persistent clouds today due to the easterly flow and low pressure influence to the east. Secondary cyclogenesis occurs off the NJ coast by Monday morning, pulling most of the precipitation to the north and out of our area. Through early Monday morning, expect QPF amounts between zero to a few hundredths just southeast of Roanoke to closer to a quarter to a just over a quarter inch or so towards Danville and South Boston. Areas west of the Blue Ridge will see almost no rain. Clouds and precipitation will limit high temperatures today in the 60s. Tonight, readings will range from the low 40s to near 50 for the mountains, and the mid to upper 50s for the Piedmont. Confidence in the near term is high for most parameters but moderate for QPF amounts. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 100 AM EDT Sunday... Key Message: 1) Dry period with warming temperatures A coastal low will continue moving north along the East Coast, but will be slowed Monday as it merges with a cutoff low out of New England. Then on Tuesday, as a ridge over the southern CONUS grows in intensity and geographical size, the low will be pushed out to sea. It is highly unlikely we receive any meaningful or measurable rain on Monday or Tuesday. The impact we will feel is some windy conditions. Sustained winds up to 15MPH, gusting to 25 will be possible on Monday, and slightly calmer on Tuesday as the center of the system moves away. Sometime late on Wednesday a cold front will pass across the eastern seaboard. The dry conditions will prevent shower formation, so it will be a dry passage. There is high confidence that temperatures the first half of the workweek will exceed normal for mid-October. Look for highs in the mid to upper 70s in the Piedmont and central VA, and for the mountains from the upper 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 130 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: 1) Clear and slightly above normal temperatures into next weekend 2) Sunday may feature next precipitation producing system Both surface high pressure and a ridge will continue to provide a clear skies and the opportunity for warmer than average temperatures into next weekend. The ridging begins to buckle and move east as it makes way for a progressive frontal system. Timing is low confidence, as this system has to power through the ridging. Some guidance has pre-frontal showers reaching our furthest western zones (southeast WV, far southwestern VA) as early as Saturday afternoon, but in the official forecast I have left precipitation out until Sunday morning. The forecast of timing and impacts related to this feature are likely to evolve over the next few days. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Sunday... A disturbance, tracking north along the East Coast, will bring low clouds and rain to the area through this evening. Conditions will lower at all terminals today and tonight to MVFR or lower IFR at times. While rain ends tonight, ceilings will remain MVFR for most terminals. Winds are expected to remain from a northeasterly direction through the period. Speeds will generally be in the 8 to 10 knot range with gusts to 20 kts at times. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Sub-VFR ceilings and visibilities may continue into Monday mid morning. Drier weather returns for next week, with VFR conditions outside of any late night fog. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SH/WP NEAR TERM...SH SHORT TERM...VFJ LONG TERM...VFJ AVIATION...SH