Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
874 FXUS61 KRNK 242327 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 727 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through this evening as a frontal system crosses the Mid Atlantic region. After this system exits early Monday morning, high pressure will return to bring cooler and drier weather for the rest of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 720 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: 1. A few showers and thunderstorms through the evening. 2. Gusty winds Monday, mainly along and west of the Blue Ridge. 3. Temperatures start trending lower Monday. The prefrontal trough continues to push east, and the front itself is currently along the western border of West Virginia, slowly advancing towards the area. A few showers and thunderstorms remain and are tracking into the VA Piedmont and Southside, where there are areas of convergence between the south and west winds. Still some instability along the trough and along the frontal boundary, but will start to lose this as the sun sets and air starts to cool, and so coverage of showers and storms will gradually decrease. Previous forecast discussion below... As of 140 PM Sunday... A pre frontal trough is making its way across the forecast area this early afternoon, and has triggered a few showers and thunderstorms in the west so far today. By the afternoon, more convection will develop along the Blue Ridge and move to the Piedmont, where there is greater instability, though still only on the order of 1000 to 1500 J/kg, per the 16Z SPC mesoanalysis. The mesoanalysis also shows bulk shear between 20 to 30 knots as the front advances east. This will help storms to organize, so looking for multicell cluster storm mode, though the overall severe threat is low, with deep westerly flow. Mean winds from the surface to 8km are between 10 to 15 knots, thus storm motion looks to be more progressive today, which will limit the risk of flash flooding. However, PWATs remain high, and stronger storms could be capable of producing periods of heavy rain. Convection will wind down after sunset, and the front itself will exit the area late tonight. Northwesterly flow aloft strengthens behind the front, and brings in cooler and drier air. Winds increase and will be gusty tomorrow, gusting between 15 to 25 mph, highest along the ridges and higher elevations. This may also keep fog formation to a minimum tomorrow morning, but still expect to see patchy fog in the river valleys for a few hours Monday morning. Temperatures will be in the low 70s in the west and low 80s in the east tomorrow afternoon. As dewpoints decrease overnight, the low temperature will also be a few degrees cooler, in the mid to upper 50s in the west and low to mid 60s in the east. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 1100 AM Sunday... Key Message: 1. Quiet weather with cooler than normal temperatures through the forecast period. Broad troughing at 500mb will become situated over the eastern US by Tuesday, and remain there through this forecast period. High pressure at the surface continues to build in from the west, centered over the Midwest and central US Tuesday. This will bring the first taste of fall to the area, and temperatures will fall below normal, averaging five to ten degrees below climatological norms for this time of year. The high pressure will also keep the weather dry and quiet through the midweek. Overnight lows will drop into the 40s and 50s. Would not be surprised to see elevated mountain valleys, such as Burkes Garden, reach the low 40s by the middle of the week. Winds Monday night into Tuesday morning look to stay elevated just enough to keep the atmosphere more mixed and prevent widespread 40s west of the Blue Ridge. Residual cloud cover in the Piedmont and eastern VA and NC will keep lows over there in the mid to upper 50s. However, cooler lows are expected Wednesday morning, and the area will see more areas reaching the low to mid 40s in the west, and low 50s in the east. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1100 AM EDT Sunday... Key Message: 1. Period of quiet weather continues through at least Friday for most. 2. Slight chance for showers in southern Blue Ridge into the weekend. 3. Temperatures trending closer to normal, but still average a few degrees below. High pressure at the surface and broad troughing aloft will keep the weather cooler and quiet through at least Friday. Long range guidance starts to diverge with the position and strength of the 500mb towards the end of the week, so some uncertainty exists, though most of the area will likely remain dry. Could see some scattered showers develop over the southern Blue Ridge Sunday,as the center of the high moves, and easterly return flow advects moisture back into the region, but confidence is low at this time. The center of the high becomes centered nearly overhead, and with dry air at the surface, Thursday morning will likely be the coolest of the long term forecast period, lows in the low to mid 40s in the east and low 50s in the east. Otherwise, high temperatures will start to trend closer to normal, though still up to 5 to 7 degrees below normal. && .AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 725 PM EDT Sunday... Conditions have improved to VFR at all terminals across the area, but periods of MVFR or lower ceilings are possible in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms for a few more hours tonight. Precipitation will gradually decrease in coverage over the next few hours, but cannot rule out a stray shower or two west of the Blue Ridge overnight, with the passage of a cold front. Overall though, not expecting much to accompany the front as westerly flow begins to dominate the area. Patchy fog Monday morning, mainly for the mountains and river valleys. Winds may stay just elevated enough to prevent fog from becoming too dense, so confidence is not as high in low visibilities at area terminals west of the Blue Ridge. Winds will turn more northwesterly Monday, and gusts between 15 to 20 knots will ensue after 16Z, and then decrease after 00Z Tuesday. Forecast confidence is high, but moderate on specific visibilities within patchy fog Monday morning. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Northwest winds will gust to 15-20 knots at times through Tuesday. High pressure will support VFR conditions through late this week. Winds remain northwest to north through Wednesday night before turning west-southwest Thursday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SH NEAR TERM...AS SHORT TERM...AS LONG TERM...AS AVIATION...AS/SH