816
FXUS61 KRNK 190552
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
152 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will stay in the North Carolina area today with
high pressure wedging in from the northeast. Another front
arrives Wednesday and lingers in the region into Thursday, while
Hurricane Erin moves northeast off the Atlantic seaboard. A
stronger front passes across the area Saturday night into
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 120 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1. Stationary front drapes across the southern Mid-Atlantic with
little rain chances

2. More clouds today with highs lower than Monday.

Low clouds from northeast flow as high pressure wedges in from
the northeast continues to propagate southwest and should be
cloudy over most areas this morning except the upper
Clinch/Holston river valleys in southwest Virginia.

Fog should be limited due to clouds.

For today, the weak front stays in the general vicinity,
wavering across VA/NC, but deeper moisture also stays south.
Upper pattern shows less energy overhead with NVA, so aside from
some diurnal mountains showers/possibly a thunderstorm in the NC
high country, should be dry and "cooler" today, though with a
weaker wedge, should see sunshine return to most locations by
mid afternoon, with more clouds in the VA/NC Piedmont.

Tonight, think the same setup with lower clouds developing or
advecting back in across most of the area. Can`t rule out an
isolated shower toward the central VA piedmont and across the NC
mountains, but for most another dry night. Lows still running at
or about 5 degrees above normal for mid August.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 149 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Hurricane Erin to bring breezy conditions east of the Blue Ridge.

2) Daily weather pattern of afternoon showers and thunderstorms
continue.

Hurricane Erin`s path keeps subtly shifting westward but is still
projected to miss the mainland. An upper level shortwave trough will
drag it northeastward and away from the continent by this weekend.
It will, however, be just close enough to affect wind direction and
speed. Areas east of the Blue Ridge can expect winds to become more
northerly by Thursday as the system passes to our east with
wind gusts of about 10-20 mph.

Hurricane Erin will also be close enough to the mainland to interact
with the stationary front that is over the central-east part of the
United States. The northerly winds from Erin will force the front
southward as a cold front and bring in some relatively drier and
cooler air into the area. Dew points will be in the 60s region wide
as a result and high temperatures will range between the lower 70s
to the lower 80s. Even with these conditions, the air will still be
warm and moist enough to support the weather pattern of daily
afternoon precipitation for the the rest of the week. The bulk of
the rain will likely be west of the Blue Ridge with higher amounts
along ridges due to the forecast 500mb northwesterly winds. The rain
chances and amounts may change depending on the final orientation of
the winds between the trough and Erin.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 149 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

1) Cold front to arrive early next week to bring drier and cooler
weather.

The afternoon pattern of daily afternoon showers will continue into
the weekend until a cold front passes through early next week. A
large and potent upper level trough will drag this front and bring
drier and cooler air into the region. The front will trigger another
round of thunderstorms and showers as it passes through. While there
will be shear associated with these storms, the air may lack the
instability needed for any severe thunderstorm development. A large
surface high pressure system will stretch across the United States
from the Great Plains to the east coast following the front. This
air mass will be noticeably drier and cooler. Dew points are
forecast to get as low as the 50s for the entire region or at least
for areas west of the Blue Ridge. PWATs will tank towards 0.5". High
temperatures will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The high
pressure looks to stick around for a while so it will put a stop to
any future precipitation chances next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Tuesday...

Will see IFR or low cigs across the area this morning, with BLF
at times, possibly being VFR as they lie on the edge of the
wedge/low clouds. Fog overall will be limited by the clouds but
some vsbys down to IFR 2-3sm possible at LWB. With a weaker
wedge in place, lower cigs should improve to VFR in the 15-17z
time frame, and scatter out for most except LYH/DAN in the
afternoon. A return of lower cigs to at least MVFR will appear
again at most terminals by 04-06z Tue night.

Confidence in the above forecast is average.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Sub-VFR cigs are likely into Wednesday along/east of the Blue Ridge.

Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be
possible each each afternoon and evening Thursday into Saturday
Patchy fog will redevelop each night, particularly across the
mountain river valleys.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RCS/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...RCS/VFJ/WP