Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
088 FXUS61 KRNK 121744 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 144 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Marginal risk for severe storms Wednesday afternoon/evening along/west of the Blue Ridge in Virginia into West Virginia. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Scattered showers/storms Wednesday into Wednesday night. A few storms may be strong/severe in the mountains, especially along/west of the Alleghany Front into WV. 2. Brief drop in temperatures Thursday, then warming to summerlike temperatures over the weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Scattered showers and storms Wednesday into Wednesday night, some could be strong to severe. Scattered storms return during the weekend into early next week with moisture/humidity increasing. An upper-level trough will move east-southeastward across the Great Lakes on Wednesday, as an associated mid-level jet streak translates southeastward into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front advances east-southeastward into the central Appalachians. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s F will contribute to weak instability as surface temperatures warm during the day. Increasing low-level convergence near the front will lead to scattered thunderstorm development, with additional storms forming due to topographic forcing in the central Appalachians. Ahead of the front, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to become steep in the afternoon peaking in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range, which should support a threat for isolated severe wind gusts. Present indications suggest main severe threat will be late in the afternoon/early evening across the VA Highlands, west into West Virginia, and possible as far east as the Blue Ridge north of Roanoke. Confidence is low on severe weather given lacking instability, so only a marginal risk at this time. High pressure moves into the area behind the front, bringing dry weather to end the work week. As the center of the high moves offshore by the weekend and some ridging starts to expand into the area, will see increasing warm air and moisture advection via the south to southwesterly flow. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase during the afternoons over the weekend, but will be mainly terrain driven across the mountains, with no strong forcing mechanism to prompt more organization to the storms. KEY MESSAGE 2: Brief drop in temperatures Thursday, then warming to summerlike temperatures over the weekend into early next week. Upper trough/closed mid level low heads to the east coast by Friday morning. Could be another case where we see some lows in the 30s in the mountains with potential for frost Friday morning. However, by the weekend, the pattern flips, with increasing 500mb heights. The surface high slides offshore, and the south to southwesterly flow will advect warmer and more moist air into the region. High temperatures will increase a few degrees each day, starting Friday, when highs will be in the 60s and 70s, then 70s and 80s by Saturday, then 80s to near 90, low 90s in the Piedmont by early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions expected through 18z Wednesday, with showers approaching BLF/LWB by then but too far out to mention in tafs. Ceilings should be around 4-6kft by 18z in the mountains with scattered cumulus from ROA east. A few wind gusts from the south-southwest to 20kts this afternoon, becoming light this evening then shifting southwest to west by 18z Wed with another few gusts to 20kts. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... A cold front arrives to the region late Wednesday, which will bring scattered shower and thunderstorm chances Wednesday afternoon and evening at all terminals, with potential sub-VFR if storms move over a terminal. Expect increased wind gusts in the 15-25 knot range out of the southwest to west at all terminals during the afternoon and into Wed night. With winds staying up not really seeing much fog Wed night. VFR conditions look to return on Thursday for most terminals; however, northwest flow behind the cold front on Thursday morning may lead to some reduced CIGs and MVFR conditions for BLF and LWB. These restrictions should lift by the afternoon on Thursday, with VFR conditions expected through the end of the work week. Isolated afternoon mountain showers/storms could affect BLF/LWB each day this weekend. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AS/WP AVIATION...EB/WP