365
FXUS61 KRNK 062302
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
702 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Adjusted coverage and location of showers across the mountains
this evening. Activity will diminish through the evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A drying and cooling to seasonal temperatures after today.

2) Heat builds again mid to late week but not as hot as last
week. A chance of storms Thu-Sat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A drying and cooling to seasonal temperatures
after this evening.

The boundary of a cold front stretches across Tennessee and
into the Carolinas this evening. An inverted trough over the
mountains triggered a few storms earlier, but coverage will
continue to shrink with the loss of evening heating. As a weak
southeast wind develops along the eastern slopes of the
northwest North Carolina Blue Ridge, a few isolated showers may
form overnight, though confidence in persistent rainfall remains
low. By Monday and Tuesday, drier air will push into the
region, bringing more sunshine and noticeably lower humidity.



Key Message 2: Heat builds again mid to late week but not as
hot as last week. A chance of storms Thu-Sat.

594dm heights return by midweek with more of a westerly flow.
Should see temps warm about 5 to 10 degrees above normal, still
"hot" for September but not looking as hot as last week.

A front tracks southeast into the area Thursday with a decent
shot of shower/storms. Depending on timing of this feature would
not be surprised to some stronger storms Thu afternoon/evening.

Front track south into the Carolinas but stalls as it becomes
parallel to upper flow. Another wave of low pressure across the
southeast could keep shower chances around into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Shower chances will diminish this evening with the loss of
daytime heating. VFR conditions will prevail for most locations
tonight, though a passing storm could temporarily lower
conditions if it moves directly over a site this evening. A low
stratus deck is highly likely to form overnight, supported by
model indications of IFR to MVFR ceilings alongside potential
patchy fog development. Light easterly winds will persist
through the night before increasing by a few knots Monday
afternoon.

Any low clouds/fog dissipate after 12Z-14Z Monday.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday. Another
cold front approaches Thursday and could bring increased rain
chances Thu into Friday. Overnight river valley fog will be
possible each night at LWB through this period.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RCS
AVIATION...RCS