711
FXUS61 KRNK 221723
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
123 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will continue drifting southeast across the
lower Mid-Atlantic through tonight, providing the focus for
widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to pass across
the region south of Highway 460. Widely scattered rain showers
and a few thunderstorms will remain in the forecast for the
remainder of the week until a cold front passes across the
region on Saturday. Dry weather will return for the start of
next week as high pressure passes from the Great Lakes across
the Northeast states.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1100 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) A passing weak cold front will provide the focus for rounds
of showers and a few thunderstorms through this evening.

2) The cold front will shift southward tonight, bringing a
reduction in the coverage of rainfall through early Wednesday
evening.

Keeping an eye on the progress of a cold front currently
crossing the mountains this morning. Weak waves of low pressure
continue to pass along the front, one of which is triggering a
round of light but beneficial rainfall across the North Carolina
High Country and nearby foothills. Satellite imagery indicates
a mixture of clouds and sunshine, with more breaks in the cloud
cover to the north of Highway 460.

For today, showers and a few thunderstorm will continue to pass
from southwest to northeast, generally hugging the North
Carolina and Virginia state border. Will be watching for a wave
of low pressure that has the potential to trigger a few strong
storms during the 5pm to 9pm timeframe, however believe the
better chances for this activity will be further south given
cloud cover limiting daytime heating from Yadkin to Caswell
Counties. Any storms that do develop will be capable of
producing localized damaging winds and large hail, and a
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of Severe Storms remains in effect
for this area.

The wave of low pressure will help nudge the cold front further
south across central/southern North Carolina overnight, which
will limit additional rainfall to brief and localized activity
tonight through most of Wednesday. May see another wave of low
pressure bring another round of showers to the High Country on
Wednesday evening, though not entirely confident in that at this
time as the activity may remain further to the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...

Key Messages:

1) Rain for southern half of the forecast area for most of the week.

2) Warm temperatures continue

A stalling front will be parked just north of the NC/VA state border
on Wednesday. High pressure just off the New Jersey/MD coast on
Thursday will force the front to descend south a bit as it reduces
the baroclinicity in the environment to our north. Then finally, on
Friday, an approaching low from the plains to our west will move
along the stalled front, and then act to lift it as a warm front out
of the area to the north.

The above description of our synoptic pattern will lead to rain
mainly falling along and south of the Highway 460 corridor in
southern VA and northern NC through the end of the week. Wednesday
and Friday will see the most widespread coverage when the front is
either closest to the CWA or moving across it. Limited instability
and moisture availability will keep showers and total rainfall
amounts light, while also restricting the strength of convective
development. An isolated storm with strong winds is still possible.

Temperatures will continue to remain above normal with highs in the
upper 60s to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 500 AM EDT TUESDAY...

Key Messages:

1) Continued showers and thunderstorms on Saturday

2) Quiet but still warm heading into next week

A cold front attendant to a surface low passing through the OH
Valley and into New England will drag more showers and potentially
some thunderstorms across the forecast area on Saturday. Despite
cold frontal passage, any resultant cooldown will be short lived
as temperatures ought to rise again Sunday through Tuesday
underneath the influence of high pressure off the Atlantic coast
and southerly to southwesterly flow around said high. Quieter
conditions are to be expected while we remain under the
influence of the suppressing high, which most deterministic long
range models have lasting into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 115 PM EDT Tuesday...

Surface analysis indicates a cold front draped southwest to
northeast across nearly the length of Virginia this afternoon,
with light winds generally less than 10kts observed areawide. A
few airports are reporting MVFR ceilings with bases at 2kft or
above. Light rain showers are present across northwest North
Carolina into southern Virginia, though with minimal impact on
visibilities.

Modest potential for thunderstorms to develop across north-
central North Carolina this evening south of the cold front,
with best chances during the 22/22Z to 23/02Z timeframe before
activity shifts away to the east. Confidence remains low
however, as believe better chances for thunderstorms will be in
the warmer air toward RDU. The strongest of any storms that do
develop will be capable of producing localized damaging winds
and large hail.

Expect localized reductions in visibility due to light fog and
lingering low ceilings during the overnight. Once showers and
thunderstorms exit for the evening, Confidence is moderate to
high for generally dry conditions through Wednesday afternoon.
Winds will remain light and northerly overnight, shifting from
the east for Wednesday.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Another low pressure system will develop across the central
Plains during the later half of the workweek, and will drift
east. This will bring rounds of shower activity, in addition to
a few thunderstorms. Scattered MVFR/IFR conditions will occur
during this period as well, intermixed with VFR conditions. A
stronger cold front will pass across the Mid-Atlantic on
Saturday, with dry air filtering in behind, bringing improved
flying conditions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EB/NF
NEAR TERM...EB/NF
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...AMS/VFJ
AVIATION...NF