567
FXUS61 KRNK 020635
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
235 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move east keep a few showers and storms
around into Wednesday mainly east of the mountains. Slightly
cooler and less humid air will move into the region by Thursday,
followed by a seasonally warm holiday weekend. No rain is
expected over the 4th of July weekend, but it looks like the
typical summertime daily afternoon thunderstorm pattern returns
for next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 225 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Showers/storms will linger mainly east of the mountains today
as front slows up.

2) Drier air will be moving in from the northwest this
afternoon into tonight.


Pre-frontal showers across the Piedmont will slowly scatter out
this morning but more showers ahead of the main front entering
the WV area will be more scattered through the morning. Another
wave aloft expected will bring another round of scattered
showers and storms along/east of the Blue Ridge today with
higher pops along/east of US Highway 29 from Lynchburg to
Danville, then south into the northwest Piedmont of NC. Airmass
starts to stabilize so not expecting severe weather or flooding
today.

The front drifts to the coast tonight.Dry air aloft should
gradually enter the area this afternoon in the mountains, so
expect activity to diminish fairly quickly Wednesday evening.

With clearing skies Wed night and somewhat cooler temps and wet
ground, not out of the question to have areas of fog form, and
may be dense, especially in the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

1) Expect dry and seasonably warm 4th.

Surface high slides across the area this period with 5h ridge
working in from the west. Should keep us dry with temperatures
running around 5 degrees above normal. This is going to provide
for good weather for any fireworks activities.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Temperatures and humidity creep back up into next week

2) Storm coverage will be scattered early next week.

Surface high pressure stays in the general area into early
next week but slides south ahead of northern stream system by
Tuesday. Flow turns more southwest increasing RH, and the chance
of diurnal storms. With high pressure aloft into Monday storm
coverage will be widely scattered and temps will be about 5-10
degrees above normal. A front pushes toward the mid-Atlantic
Tuesday which bring a jump in pops to better chances for storms.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 132 AM EDT Wednesday...

Showers/few storms possible this morning mainly LYH/DAN.
Cigs will will fluctuate from VFR to IFR or lower this morning
with fog/low cigs more likely over BLF/LWB as skies try to
clear above, leading to more stratus/fog formation.

Expect any low clouds/fog to start to dissipate in the 12-15z
time frame with VFR expected at all sites during most of the
rest of the taf period.

Any showers east to also clear out by later this period as the
front moves east.

Confidence is high for sub-VFR this morning but to what extent
confidence is low.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR conditions are expected outside of morning valley fog
through this weekend.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...CG/WP
LONG TERM...CG/WP
AVIATION...PM/WP