623
FXUS61 KRNK 080904
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
404 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak disturbance will bring additional light rain showers
late tonight, mainly to the Piedmont, ahead of a strong cold
front that will pass across the lower Mid-Atlantic on Sunday
afternoon and evening. Unseasonably cold air will settle across
the region from early Monday into Wednesday, supporting rounds
of mountain snow showers, before the deep low pressure system
supplying the cold air moves away. Temperatures will moderate
closer to normal for the second half of the coming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EST Saturday...

Key Message:

1) Expect a mixture of clouds and sunshine today with light
westerly winds and highs 5 to 7 degrees above normal.

2) A weak disturbance will bring light & spotty rain showers to
the Piedmont late tonight.

Radar indicates that rain is exiting the area quickly to the
east this morning as a weak cold front passes across the lower
Mid-Atlantic. Clouds will decrease through late morning as
somewhat drier air works its way across the region, making for a
mixture of passing high clouds and sunshine through the day.
Despite the passage of this morning`s cold front, there is
really no cold air associated with this system, and the westerly
downslope winds today will support afternoon high temperatures
that are 5-7 degrees above normal, ranging from the low 60s
across southeast West Virginia to the low 70s across the
Virginia Southside.

Expect one more mild night as another weak disturbance crosses
the region, bringing light and spotty rain showers across the
Piedmont, with amounts generally a tenth of an inch or less.
Increased cloud cover, and winds shifting from the south ahead
of an approaching strong cold front will hold overnight lows in
the upper 40s to the low 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Rain Sunday afternoon west of Blue Ridge changes to snow
showers overnight.

2) Coldest air of the season so far moves into the area by
Monday.

3) Flurries possible along/west of Blue Ridge Monday night.

Sunday will be a transition day across the forecast area as a
cold front will move through midday, with a low pressure system
in the Ohio Valley tracking into the Northeastern US. Areas west
of the Blue Ridge will see showers throughout the day, with
more isolated showers possible for the eastern Piedmont. Behind
the front Sunday evening into the overnight hours, northwesterly
flow will increase. This upslope flow for the western slopes,
in association with a deep upper-level trough will cause rain
showers to initially occur late Sunday, with a transition to
snow showers overnight as CAA occurs. Although snow showers will
continue through the overnight, little accumulation is expected
as ground temperatures will lag behind initially above
freezing. Moisture will be the biggest question mark as to how
much snow occurs and where, but the highest elevations could see
a light dusting to around half of an inch by Monday morning on
elevated surfaces in the NC/VA/WV mountains. A few flurries
cannot be ruled out anywhere west of the Blue Ridge.

Colder air then continues to pour into the area as an upper low
remains overhead on Monday, and a strong surface high drives in
colder air from Canada. Upslope snow showers will continue
through the day, though they will remain light. Limited moisture
will be supplied from the Great Lakes, with the upper low also
supplying some moisture. The deep upper-level trough strengthens
and pushes further south Monday night, all the way to Florida,
with the trough axis moving through our area and providing
enhanced lift for another burst of upslope snow showers, this
time mainly for the WV mountains. With much colder temperatures
in place, accumulations will be more likely, with a trace to a
few tenths possible in the NC/VA mountains, with 1" to locally
3"+ possible in Western Greenbrier County. Lingering snow
showers taper off Tuesday morning as high pressure builds in
from the southwest and the upper-trough moves off to the east.

Temperatures will be varied, as Sunday will be quite mild.
Highs in the 50s for the mountains, with 60s to low 70s for the
Piedmont ahead of the front. Monday and Tuesday will see winter-
like temperatures as the coldest air of the season thus far
moves in, with highs only in the 20s/30s along/west of the Blue
Ridge, and 40s for the Piedmont both days. Overnight lows will
also be cold, in the 20s/30s Monday morning and down into the
teens/20s Tuesday morning.

The cold will be compounded by strong NW winds of 10-20 mph and
gusts of 20-30 mph Sunday night into Monday. Wind chills Monday
morning will be in the teens west of the Blue Ridge, with
single digits in the highest elevations. Tuesday morning will
have even colder wind chill values, as wind gusts increase to
25-40 mph west of the Blue Ridge, causing wind chills to fall
into the teens and single digits west of the Blue Ridge. The
highest elevations will see wind chills right around zero.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Quiet and dry weather expected through the period.

2) Temperatures warm quickly back to near to slightly above
normal.

High pressure both at the surface and aloft will build into the
area Tuesday night, with quiet conditions remaining in place.
Winds shift back to the southwest overnight, which will allow
warmer air to advect back into the area for mid to late week.
With a strong high over the Southeastern US, and waves of low
pressure passing to the north over the Great Lakes Region, this
will keep west to southwesterly winds elevated Wednesday and
Thursday. Winds of 10-20 mph will be possible along/west of the
Blue Ridge, with gusts of 25- 35+ mph expected at times. A
shortwave trough and mainly-dry cold front will move through
Thursday morning, but with drier air aloft, only a stray upslope
shower may be possible in the WV mountains. Otherwise, dry
conditions continue through the rest of the period as high
pressure moves in from the west and dominates the area into the
weekend.

High temperatures quickly rebound on Wednesday, with 50s/60s
expected, though the highest elevations may remain in the upper
40s. This stays consistent for the rest of the period. Overnight
lows will start out chilly Wednesday morning, in the 20s/30s,
before slowly moderating into the 30s/40s through the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 115 AM EST Saturday...

A line of light to moderate rain continues to advance east this
morning across the lower Mid-Atlantic as a weak cold front
passes across the region, resulting in occasional reductions in
visibility into the 3SM to 5SM range. Ceilings are currently
VFR, though bases across the mountains continue to lower toward
MVFR levels. Winds are light and generally from the west.

Rain is forecast to exit the service area to the east by
11Z. MVFR/IFR ceilings which develop across the mountains
overnight will lift quickly during the 11Z to 14Z timeframe,
making for VFR conditions until the end of the 08/06Z TAF
period, when a disturbance will bring showers and lowering
ceilings from the Blue Ridge eastward by 09/05Z. Winds will be
from the west-southwest at less than 10kts through the period.


.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

A strong cold front will pass across the lower Mid-Atlantic on
Sunday night into Monday. Snow showers and IFR visibilities and
ceilings are likely for BLF and LWB during this time. Flurries
or snow showers will be possible at BCB and possibly ROA Sunday
night into Monday with potential MVFR ceilings.

Northwest winds gusting 25kts to locally 40kts will be possible
daily from Monday through at least Wednesday, before wind speeds
diminish during the later half of the coming week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 300 AM EST Saturday...

Most of the service area received a wetting rainfall earlier
this morning. Totals were highest along & west of I-77, where at
least 0.75" fell, with amounts then tapering down further east
to less than 0.25" falling along the crest of the Blue Ridge and
points eastward.

Fire weather concerns are likely to be lower today than in past
days considering the rainfall this morning moistened fuels.
Winds will be less than 10 mph from the southwest, occurring
under a mixture of high clouds and sunshine and minimum
afternoon humidity holding above 40 percent.

A strong cold front will pass across the lower Mid-Atlantic on
Sunday afternoon and evening, bringing sharply colder air and
breezy northwest winds to the area for Monday through Tuesday
night. Fire weather concerns will increase early in the week as
daytime gusts will range from 25 mph to locally 35 mph across
the mountains, and from 15 mph to locally 25 mph across the
Piedmont from Monday into Wednesday. This will be combined with
mostly clear skies areawide, and minimum humidity potentially
falling to 30 percent or lower across the Piedmont, all of which
will support the drying of fuels.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...NF
FIRE WEATHER...NF