916
FXUS61 KRNK 100601
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
201 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface boundaries remain in the area through the rest of the week,
and these along with upper level energy will allow for an
increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
and evening through early next week. It will remain warm and
muggy.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Light rain early this morning.

2) Additional storms this afternoon and evening may be strong to
severe, with damaging winds and localized flooding the main
threats. Main area of concern is Southside VA and the NC
Piedmont.

3) Flood Watch expanded to Stokes County and continues through
this evening.

Currently still seeing some light rain over the area with
additional  upper level forcing arriving. This will prolong
showers, especially over the mountains, overnight. As far as
the Piedmont, showers are weakening and the rain rates are
becoming lighter.

Mid level troughing over the area has stalled, but additional
short wave energy will support light showers this morning and
will be enough lift to support another round of showers and
storms this afternoon and evening. Once again damaging winds and
localized flooding will be the main concerns, but most CAMs
agree today`s center of activity will be to our south.
Instability will be pooled south of a line from Wilkesboro, NC,
to Buckingham, VA, however a lee trough in our area will help
trigger training storms and possibly more flooding issues,
mainly over Southside VA and the NC Piedmont.

PWATs will range from about 1.50 inches in SE WV to about 2.10
inches over Southside VA and the NC Piedmont, which is lower
than Wednesday, but still enough for efficient rain rates.
Cells should also be moving a little faster, so this should cut
down on the total rainfall amounts in our area. Still, there
will be some pockets of 1 to 2 inch totals over areas which
have recently seen plenty of rain. Therefore a Flood Watch
remains in effect through tonight.

Tonight, we will be partly to mostly cloudy, with overnight
lows ranging from the upper 50s in Burke`s Garden to the low 70s
in Southside VA and NC Piedmont Friday morning.

Confidence in the near term is moderate to high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Scattered afternoon storms possible each day.

2) Normal temperatures through the period.

A Bermuda High pressure in the Atlantic will continue to keep a
southwesterly flow across the Mid-Atlantic, which will keep
warm, moist air present. Dewpoints in the 70s along with diurnal
heating will continue to allow daily afternoon storms to form.
However, coverage will decrease to isolated to scattered, as dry
air aloft along with a developing upper-level ridge will limit
convection for both Friday and Saturday. A leeside surface
trough will remain in place on Friday, which will aid lift
across the area, which will allow any storm that does form to be
capable of producing damaging winds. Due to this, the SPC has
our area in a Marginal Risk of severe weather.

Saturday will see the surface trough move off to the east, with
general isolated pulse thunderstorm activity in the afternoon.
Storms will quickly dissipate after sunset each evening. By
Sunday, a backdoor cold front will slide south towards our area
from the Delmarva region, instigating scattered afternoon
thunderstorms once again across the area, with the best chances
for the northern Piedmont, closer to the front.

Although storm coverage will not be widespread, flooding will
remain a concern through the period, though the threat will be
lower. Areas that get hit repeatedly each day will keep the
ground saturated and unable to hold more water. Combined with
the heavy rain received over the past week or so, and any heavy
thunderstorm with high rainfall rates could easily cause
flooding in flood-prone, urban, and low-lying areas. QPF totals
for the period are generally low, under 0.50", but locally
higher amounts in the heaviest storms will be possible. Storms
are not expected to be long-lived, due to low shear values from
a lack of upper-level support, which will aid in limiting the
flooding potential.

Temperatures remain very consistent through the period, with
highs in the 80s, and lows in the 60s to low 70s, which are
all around normal for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) A cold front moves through Monday, increasing storm chances.

2) Temperatures continue to remain around normal.

Models are now hinting at the possibility of a cold front moving
through the area late Monday. An upper-level trough will also
provide support, which could potentially bring some severe
weather. This will be monitored as details come more into focus
later this week. While the front increases the storm chances
Monday afternoon, with PoPs around 50-60%, drier air will fill
in behind the front for Tuesday, limiting convection across the
area. Moisture quickly recovers by Wednesday, with the typical
daily pulse afternoon thunderstorms returning to the forecast
through the end of next week.

Due to the mostly stagnant pattern, temperatures continue to
remain right around normal through the period, with highs in
the 80s, and lows in the 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Thursday...

Light rain showers were still affecting BLF, LWB, DAN, and LYH
this morning. Fog and stratus are will expand across the area
as well. LWB and BCB could have dense fog. Conditions improve
after 13Z, but MVFR or lower conditions linger in LYH, DAN, and
BLF a little longer. Additional showers and storms are expected
this afternoon and evening, with most TAF sites seeing at least
VCTS. The concentration will be higher over LYH and DAN, with
most heavy rain falling south of there.

Another round of fog and stratus is likely tonight once the
convection diminishes.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

The forecast continues in a typical summertime weather pattern
with daily chance of showers/storms during the peak heating
hours each day through the weekend. Morning fog will also be
possible each day, especially at LWB and BCB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flood Watch through this evening for VAZ044-058-059.
NC...Flood Watch through this evening for NCZ004>006.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...SH