551
FXUS61 KRNK 040715
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
315 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to provide warm and dry weather
through this evening. Rain chances increase by Thursday morning
and unsettled weather will likely continue into early next week
with a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Dry and warm weather will continue through this evening.

2) Increasing chance of rain showers late tonight and into
early Thursday.

Upper ridging continues to hold over the eastern United States
with surface high pressure remaining over the Atlantic.
Southwest flow around the high, along with increased heights due
to the ridge will result in another day of warm and dry
conditions. Highs generally in the upper 70s to mid 80s across
the area.

A weak disturbance moving north out of the Gulf this morning
will track into the Carolinas late tonight. Clouds will increase
this evening ahead of the system and light rain could begin to
reach portions of North Carolina and southern Virginia late
tonight and into very early Thursday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

1) Rain chances increase later this week and into the weekend

A disturbance off the Carolina Coast is looking to form into a low
pressure system and travel along the coast towards the northeast.
While there is a some disagreement on the specific path, the storm
system may be just west and inland enough to provide precipitation
for the NC Piedmont and Southside VA counties by Thursday morning.
Winds may become more northerly as the system moves through but
winds are not expected to increase. Afternoon temperatures for this
part of the region may take a dip due to the extensive cloud cover
and rainfall but they are expected to recover by Friday.

Confidence is growing that a cold front from the northwest will
stall over the Ohio River Valley for the latter half of the work
week. A surface high pressure center over the area may get squished
between the Carolina system and the cold front and keep
precipitation likelihood low for areas between the Blue Ridge and
Appalachians. A shortwave looks to pass into the region sometime
between Thursday evening and Friday, but precipitation associated
with it may be mostly upslope and limited to the western mountainous
counties.

Saturday currently has the highest risk of areawide thunderstorms as
this is when the cold front is projected to pass through. A
shortwave will accompany the front to assist with lift. Severe
weather is not out of the question for a few reasons. One, dew
points will be at their highest in weeks with values as high as 70F
in Southside VA. Second, the warming trend will resume after
Thursday and there will be enough CAPE for the atmosphere to work
with. Lastly, a modest 500mb jet will provide shear for some storm
organization. It is too early to know of specific hazards, but this
is something that will be monitored as the week progresses. In
addition, PWATs may increase to 1.5" which would be higher than the
climatology averages of about one inch for this time of year. Like
with the severe weather, estimates of potential precipitation
accumulations will be determined closer to the weekend.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Warm temperatures continue

2) Another frontal system to bring a chance of precipitation early
next week

A brief moment of high pressure settles in after the weekend`s cold
front before another frontal system passes through early next week
to provide another round of thunderstorms. This other cold front
will coincide with an upper level trough that dips south as it moves
eastward. The front is currently not projected to be strong as
temperatures and dewpoints do not drastically change. After this
system passes, a surface high pressure system moves into the eastern
CONUS to dominate the rest of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 215 AM EDT Wednesday...

Widespread VFR is expected for all terminals over the next 24
hours. Exception being some potential IFR or lower vsby at LWB
in the 09-12z time frame. Winds light out of the less, less than
10 kts.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Sub-vfr could return as early as Thursday morning with showers
moving back into the region. Daily chance of rain and
thunderstorms through the weekend could bring periods of sub-
vfr, along with patchy valley fog each morning.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...BMG