677
FXUS61 KRNK 230001
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
701 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will allow for dry conditions through Monday.
Another larger system moves through the area during the middle
of next week, with a big cooldown expected for Thanksgiving and
beyond.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 640 PM EST Saturday...

Some fog east of the Blue Ridge was added into the weather grids
this evening as several CAM models have good agreement in areas
of fog developing tonight and towards the early morning hours.
This fog should lift/disperse by the mid morning hours as
heating and winds both pick up across the area. Outside of these
small adjustments, no other changes were made. Depending on how
thick the fog develops overnight, additional products such as a
Dense Fog Advisory may be needed.

Previous Discussion:


Key Message: Drier airmass returns to the area for the rest of
the weekend.

Main disturbance and sfc cold front has quickly exited the CWA
to the east and associated shower coverage has diminished
greatly. Typical cold advection stratocu remains in the wake of
the system and should have lingering cloud coverage through
tonight for much of the area. Strong mixing and subsidence should
occur during the daytime Sunday that will quickly scatter any
clouds with increased westerly winds. Even though we will be in
the cooler post frontal regime with decent ridging, afternoon
temps Sunday should remain above climo norms and values should
mainly be in the mid 60s for the Piedmont and mid to upper 50s
for the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1200 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) High pressure will support dry conditions through Monday night.

2) Low pressure will arrive for Tuesday and Tuesday night, resulting
in periods of rain and possible thunderstorms for the Piedmont.

The passage of high pressure overhead from Sunday night through
Monday night will bring dry weather to the lower Mid-Atlantic under
mostly clear skies and wind speeds generally under 10 mph from the
west. Attention then turns to the arrival of a warm front on Tuesday
that will bring periods of light rain into Tuesday night, when an
associated cold front will approach the Appalachian chain from the
west. There are signs in the latest round of weather data that
suggest a few thunderstorms will develop across the Piedmont Tuesday
night as an upper level disturbance passes overhead. Uncertainty
remains in rainfall amounts, however there are signals that rainfall
associated with the storms across the Piedmont could be locally
heavy at times.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1200 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) A cold front will pass across the lower Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday.

2) Temperatures will transition to between 8 to 12 degrees below
normal for Thursday and Friday.

Looking to Wednesday, widely scattered showers will persist through
the day before a cold front makes its way across the lower Mid-
Atlantic during the afternoon and evening. This front will usher in
cooler and drier Canadian high pressure that will control our
weather pattern through the remainder of the workweek. Skies will
become mostly clear with the arrival of high pressure, with west-
northwesterly windflow that could be breezy at times. While
temperatures will remain mild on Wednesday until the cold front
arrives, they will then transition to between 8 to 12 degrees below
normal for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 630 PM EST Saturday...

MVFR CIGs are continuing to be observed at BLF and LWB this
evening, and are expected to remain through most of the
overnight hours, before returning to VFR conditions by the early
morning hours for all terminals. Some patchy fog can`t be ruled
out for LYH and DAN during the overnight hours, which may lead
to some MVFR to IFR VSBYs; however, confidence is not high
enough to include in any TAF line at this time, but may be added
at later amendments. Winds overnight look to relax to variable
levels for terminals east of the Blue Ridge, with mountain
terminal winds likely staying elevated at around 5 knots through
the overnight period out of the west/northwest. By Sunday
afternoon, wind gusts look to increase to around 20-25 knots at
all terminals, but should slowly diminish through the evening
hours.


.Extended Aviation Outlook...

The next system arrives Tue-Wed with rain chances and sub- VFR
conditions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG/WP
NEAR TERM...AB/EB
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...AB/EB